Alaves v Malaga prediction · La Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Alaves 1–1 Malaga ALAVES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alaves win~~54%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.897

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.924

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alaves win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alaves 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–20
1′KICK-OFF Alaves v Malaga
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Alaves win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Lucas Boyé · Alaves
43′We said Alaves at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–39–19
44′We said Alaves at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–27–58
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Alaves 0–1 Malaga
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Alaves win: 54% at kick-off, 15% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Malaga win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Alaves win 42%)
45′We said Alaves at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–58
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 14–27–58
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Alaves win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
45′SECOND HALF Alaves 0–1 Malaga
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alaves · On: Hugo Novoa Ramos · Off: Carles Aleñá
46′Malaga ahead on 44′ through Adrian Nino. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–27–59
46′HALF-TIME Alaves 0–1 Malaga
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Alaves · On: Youssef Enriquez · Off: Nicolas Valentini
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Alaves · On: Denis Suárez · Off: Abderrahmane Rebbach
57′We said Alaves at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Alaves · On: Toni Martínez · Off: Mariano Díaz
67′8 shots for Alaves, 3 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 6–23–72
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Nahuel Tenaglia · Alaves
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Malaga · On: José Salinas · Off: Adam Aznou
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Malaga · On: Rafael Rodríguez Ruiz · Off: Ramón Enríquez
70′We said Alaves at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–74
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Alaves win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Alaves · On: Aitor Mañas · Off: Antonio Blanco
78′12 shots for Alaves, 5 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 2–16–82
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Malaga · On: Juan Berrocal · Off: Carlos Puga
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Malaga · On: Carlos Ruiz Rubio · Off: Adrian Nino
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Carlos Dotor · Malaga
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Malaga · On: Jens Cajuste · Off: Carlos Dotor
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Alaves 1–1 Malaga
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Malaga win 93%)
91′Aitor Mañas scores for Alaves on 89′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 4–93–2
93′16 shots for Alaves, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 3–96–1
95′1–1 at the end. Our 54% on Alaves misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Juan Francisco Funes Arjona · Malaga
FTFULL TIME Alaves 1–1 Malaga
FTAlaves 1–1 Malaga · Alaves win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alaves are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alaves 54%, draw 25%, Malaga 20%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Alaves v MalagaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Alaves win54%

Draw25%

Malaga win20%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueEstadio de Mendizorroza

RefereeCarlos Muñiz Muñoz

Line-ups

Alaves

5-3-2

Malaga

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alaves

Malaga

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · La Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Alaves	9	+3	11
20	Malaga	9	−12	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alaves

5-3-2

1 Sivera

7 Angel Pérez

14 N. Tenaglia

16 V. Koski

2 N. Valentini

21 A. Rebbach

19 Pablo Ibáñez

8 Antonio Blanco

10 Carles Aleñá

15 L. Boyé

9 M. Díaz

Coach · Quique Sánchez Flores

Substitutes

23 · C. Benavídez

4 · Denis Suárez

22 · Miguel Rodríguez

13 · A. Giménez

27 · X. Olaiz

12 · Hugo Novoa

33 · Rubén Montero

20 · Aitor Mañas

11 · Toni Martínez

3 · Yusi

24 · Selu Diallo

17 · Jonny

Malaga

4-1-4-1

1 Alfonso Herrero

3 Puga

15 Ángel Recio

4 Einar Galilea

31 Rafita

6 Ramón Enríquez

10 David Larrubia

8 Carlos Dotor

22 Dani Lorenzo

39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh

21 Adrián Niño Heredia

Coach · Funes

Substitutes

2 · J. Cajuste

23 · Izan Merino

20 · Fernando Calero

9 · Chupe

17 · Eneko Jauregi

13 · Carlos López

5 · Álex Pastor

14 · Rafa Rodríguez

12 · José Salinas

7 · H. Abaida

32 · J. Fernandez

25 · Juan Berrocal

Our number · alaves winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 03:50 · locked at kick-off

54% The market58%

Us54%

~~Market~~58%

We make Alaves a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alaves v Malaga~~1.64 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 4~~7 v 20

~~The market · Alaves win~~58% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alaves win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alaves win	54%	58%	−4
Draw	25%	25%	0
Malaga win	20%	17%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	47%	−1
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Alaves or draw	80%	83%	−3
Alaves clean sheet	41%	–	–
Malaga clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 8.5 6.9 3.2 1 12.8 11.8 5.1 2 10.6 9.3 4.2 3 5.8 5.1 2.3 4 2.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alaves down, Malaga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,989 La Liga matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alaves at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Malaga away: 0.25 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Alaves, 0.89 for Malaga. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALA 2–1 MAL · MAL 1–0 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in La Liga this season · since 6 Sept

ALAVES

WLLDLL5–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

MALAGA

DDLLDL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	9	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	+11	22
3	Real Madrid	9	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	−2	14
7	Alaves	9	+3	11
8	Celta Vigo	9	+3	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	+1	11
10	Osasuna	9	−8	11
11	Levante	9	−2	10
12	Villarreal	9	0	9
13	Athletic Club	8	−1	9
14	Rayo Vallecano	8	−5	9
15	Getafe	9	−6	9
16	Espanyol	9	−1	8
17	Racing Santander	9	−12	8
18	Elche	9	−6	7
19	Valencia	9	−9	6
20	Malaga	9	−12	4