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Alaves v Atletico Madrid

Alaves

1–2Full time

Atletico Madrid

La Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio de Mendizorroza

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid ATLETICO MADRID WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Madrid win~~46%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.442

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.333

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Madrid win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico Madrid 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 28–26–46
1′KICK-OFF Alaves v Atletico Madrid
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Alaves 0–1 Atletico Madrid
35′Alejandro Grimaldo scores for Atletico Madrid on 33′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–74
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Atletico Madrid win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Robin Le Normand · Atletico Madrid
45′⚽ GOAL · 51' Alaves 1–1 Atletico Madrid · Lucas Boyé
45′SECOND HALF Alaves 1–1 Atletico Madrid
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Ademola Lookman · Atletico Madrid
49′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Robin Le Normand · Atletico Madrid
50′⚽ GOAL · 51' Alaves 1–1 Atletico Madrid · Lucas Boyé
50′SECOND HALF Alaves 1–1 Atletico Madrid
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Atletico Madrid · On: Lee Kang-In · Off: Pablo Barrios Rivas Corrected
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Angel Pérez Hidalgo · Alaves
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Alaves
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Atletico Madrid · On: Dávid Hancko · Off: Robin Le Normand Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Alaves · On: Carlos Protesoni · Off: Antonio Blanco Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Alaves · On: Mariano Díaz · Off: Toni Martínez Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Alaves · On: Ander Guevara · Off: Lucas Boyé Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Alaves · On: Ville Koski · Off: Nicolas Valentini Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Atletico Madrid · On: Alexander Sørloth · Off: Giuliano Simeone Baldini Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Alaves · On: Aitor Mañas · Off: Denis Suárez Corrected
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid · Lucas Boyé
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid · Cristian Romero
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Johnny Cardoso · Atletico Madrid
FTFULL TIME Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid
FTAlaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid · Atletico Madrid win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Alaves win28%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Valverde’s Villarreal Return Reignites Atlético-Real Madrid DisputeFootball España · 6 hours ago · Villarreal, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:15

Venue · Estadio de Mendizorroza

Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Alaves

3-5-2

1 A. Sivera

14 N. Tenaglia

2 N. Valentini

17 Jonny Otto

7 A. Perez

4 D. Suarez

8 A. Blanco

19 P. Ibanez

21 A. Rebbach

11 T. Martinez

15 L. Boye

Coach · Quique Sanchez Flores

Substitutes

13 · A. Rodriguez

16 · V. Koski

3 · Yusi

12 · H. Novoa Ramos

10 · C. Alena

23 · C. Protesoni

6 · A. Guevara

24 · M. Diallo Selu

20 · A. Manas

9 · M. Diaz

22 · M. Rodriguez

27 · X. Olaiz

Atletico Madrid

4-2-3-1

13 J. Oblak

14 M. Llorente

21 C. Romero

24 R. Le Normand

22 A. Grimaldo

6 Koke

5 J. Cardoso

20 G. Simeone

8 P. Barrios

11 A. Lookman

15 J. David

Coach · Diego Simeone

Substitutes

1 · J. Musso

17 · D. Hancko

18 · M. Pubill

30 · D. Martinez

27 · J. Dominguez

23 · M. Hjulmand

7 · Lee Kang-In

46 · J. Castillo

9 · A. Sorloth

10 · A. Baena

19 · J. Alvarez

16 · A. Ortiz

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Alaves

3-5-2

1 A. Sivera

14 N. Tenaglia

2 N. Valentini

17 Jonny Otto

7 A. Perez

4 D. Suarez

8 A. Blanco

19 P. Ibanez

21 A. Rebbach

11 T. Martinez

15 L. Boye

Coach · Quique Sanchez Flores

Substitutes

13 · A. Rodriguez

16 · V. Koski

3 · Yusi

12 · H. Novoa Ramos

10 · C. Alena

23 · C. Protesoni

6 · A. Guevara

24 · M. Diallo Selu

20 · A. Manas

9 · M. Diaz

22 · M. Rodriguez

27 · X. Olaiz

Atletico Madrid

4-2-3-1

13 J. Oblak

14 M. Llorente

21 C. Romero

24 R. Le Normand

22 A. Grimaldo

6 Koke

5 J. Cardoso

20 G. Simeone

8 P. Barrios

11 A. Lookman

15 J. David

Coach · Diego Simeone

Substitutes

1 · J. Musso

17 · D. Hancko

18 · M. Pubill

30 · D. Martinez

27 · J. Dominguez

23 · M. Hjulmand

7 · Lee Kang-In

46 · J. Castillo

9 · A. Sorloth

10 · A. Baena

19 · J. Alvarez

16 · A. Ortiz

Our number · atletico madrid winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

46% The market53%

Us46%

~~Market~~53%

We make Atletico Madrid a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alaves win	28%	22%	+6
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Atletico Madrid win	46%	53%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	47%	52%	−5
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−5
Alaves or draw	54%	47%	+7
Alaves clean sheet	23%	–	–
Atletico Madrid clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.9 11.1 8.3 4.1 1 8.2 12.4 9.0 4.4 2 4.6 6.7 4.9 2.4 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alaves down, Atletico Madrid across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,970 La Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

La Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alaves at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Madrid away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Alaves, 1.48 for Atletico Madrid. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–0 ALA · ALA 1–1 ATL · ALA 0–0 ATL · ATL 2–1 ALA

Form · last six in La Liga

ALAVES

DWWLLD1–1 · 1–0 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

ATLETICO MADRID

DWLWWW2–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	−4	10
9	Villarreal	7	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	+1	8
11	Espanyol	8	0	8
12	Getafe	7	−3	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	−5	8
14	Osasuna	7	−7	8
15	Celta Vigo	7	+2	7
16	Racing Santander	7	−10	7
17	Levante	6	−4	5
18	Elche	7	−6	5
19	Malaga	8	−9	4
20	Valencia	7	−9	4