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Sestao River v Salamanca UDS
Sestao RiverSalamanca UDSCopa Federacion · WED 14 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Sestao River win at 46%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Sestao River was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
- 1′KICK-OFF Sestao River v Salamanca UDS
- 4′🟥 RED CARD · 4' Salamanca UDS
- 6′🟥 RED CARD · 4' Salamanca UDS
- 7′A red card for Salamanca UDS on 4′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 45–29–25
- 35′A goal for Sestao River on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–6
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sestao River 1–0 Salamanca UDS
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Sestao River win: 46% at kick-off, 77% now
- 37′We published Sestao River at 46%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
- 39′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
- 45′HALF-TIME Sestao River 1–0 Salamanca UDS
- 46′🟥 RED CARD · 4' L. Opara · Salamanca UDS
- 46′SECOND HALF Sestao River 1–0 Salamanca UDS
- 53′We published Sestao River at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Sestao River 2–0 Salamanca UDS
- 67′65′ and it is 2–0: Sestao River have scored. 2–0 · 98–2–0
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Sestao River win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
- 69′Salamanca UDS find the net on 69′. 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–1
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Sestao River 2–1 Salamanca UDS
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Sestao River win: 46% at kick-off, 85% now
- 72′We published Sestao River at 46%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Sestao River win: 46% at kick-off, 87% now
- 74′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 88–11–1
- 78′We published Sestao River at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
- 82′🟥 RED CARD · 4' L. Opara · Salamanca UDS
- 84′We published Sestao River at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
- 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Sestao River win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
- 90′A goal for Sestao River on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 90′We published Sestao River at 46%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Sestao River 3–1 Salamanca UDS
- FTFULL TIME Sestao River 3–1 Salamanca UDS
- FTSestao River 3–1 Salamanca UDS · Sestao River win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.
Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.
Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 17:55 · locked at kick-off
Sestao River win46%Salamanca UDS win25%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:30
Match timeline
All events
Sestao RiverMINSalamanca UDSEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Sestao River
Salamanca UDS
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sestao River | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 6 | Salamanca UDS | 3 | +1 | 5 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Sestao River a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 48%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sestao River win | 46% | 54% | −8 |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | +1 |
| Salamanca UDS win | 25% | 19% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 43% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 25% | −6 |
| Sestao River or draw | 75% | 81% | −7 |
| Sestao River clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
| Salamanca UDS clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
0 meetings since 2021No meetings between these two in Copa Federacion since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.
Form · last six in Copa Federacion
SESTAO RIVER
SALAMANCA UDS
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Recreativo Huelva | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 |  Navalcarnero | 3 | +6 | 7 |
| 3 | Sestao River | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 |  UD Santa Marta | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Conil | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Salamanca UDS | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 |  Orihuela | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 |  Binéfar | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Dos Hermanas | 2 | +8 | 3 |
| 10 |  Bergantiños | 2 | +4 | 3 |
| 11 |  Cacereño | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 |  Comillas | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 |  Saguntino | 2 | −3 | 3 |
| 14 |  Derio | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 |  Real Murcia | 3 | −2 | 2 |
| 16 |  Terrassa | 3 | −3 | 2 |
| 17 |  Caudal | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 |  Badalona II | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 |  Compostela | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 |  Mensajero | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 |  CF Talavera | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 |  San Juan | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 |  L'Hospitalet | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 24 |  Torrent | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 25 |  Vimenor | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 26 |  Melilla | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 27 |  Porreres | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 28 |  San Fernando CD | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 29 |  Motril | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 30 |  UD San Pedro | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 31 |  Leioa | 1 | −5 | 0 |
| 32 |  Sporting Ceuta | 1 | −9 | 0 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.