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Recreativo Huelva v Navalcarnero
Recreativo HuelvaNavalcarneroCopa Federacion · WED 14 OCT
Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–2, the score after 90 minutes. Recreativo Huelva won 5–3 on penalties.
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Recreativo Huelva win at 42%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Recreativo Huelva 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
- 1′KICK-OFF Recreativo Huelva v Navalcarnero
- 7′Navalcarnero find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
- 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Recreativo Huelva 0–1 Navalcarnero
- 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
- 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Navalcarnero win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Recreativo Huelva win 18%)
- 9′We said Recreativo Huelva at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–23–59
- 24′We said Recreativo Huelva at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–63
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
- 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Recreativo Huelva 0–2 Navalcarnero
- 41′A goal for Navalcarnero on 40′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
- 43′We said Recreativo Huelva at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
- 45′HALF-TIME Recreativo Huelva 0–2 Navalcarnero
- 46′SECOND HALF Recreativo Huelva 0–2 Navalcarnero
- 66′65′ and it is 1–2: Recreativo Huelva have scored. 1–2 · 4–19–77
- 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Recreativo Huelva 1–2 Navalcarnero
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 4% now
- 68′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–19–78
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
- 89′Recreativo Huelva find the net on 88′. 2–2. 2–2 · 5–91–4
- 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Recreativo Huelva 2–2 Navalcarnero
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
- 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Navalcarnero win 4%)
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 27% now
- 90′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 4–93–3
- 90′We said Recreativo Huelva at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 2–2 · 27–53–21
- 94′We said Recreativo Huelva at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–56–19
- 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 95' Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 24% now
- 98′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 98' Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
- 110′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 110' Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
- 111′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 111' Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
- 111′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Recreativo Huelva
- 111′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 27% now
- 111′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN Recreativo Huelva win: 42% at kick-off, 0% now
- 115′We said Recreativo Huelva at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 7–87–6
- FTFULL TIME Recreativo Huelva 2–2 Navalcarnero
- FTRecreativo Huelva 2–2 Navalcarnero after 90 minutes, as graded · Recreativo Huelva win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.
Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.
Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 18:47 · locked at kick-off
Recreativo Huelva win42%Navalcarnero win30%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 19:30
Match timeline
All events
Recreativo HuelvaMINNavalcarneroEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Recreativo Huelva
Navalcarnero
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 | Navalcarnero | 3 | +6 | 7 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Recreativo Huelva a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recreativo Huelva win | 42% | 48% | −6 |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | +1 |
| Navalcarnero win | 30% | 24% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 47% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 70% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 28% | −7 |
| Recreativo Huelva or draw | 70% | 76% | −6 |
| Recreativo Huelva clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Navalcarnero clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
0 meetings since 2021No meetings between these two in Copa Federacion since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.
Form · last six in Copa Federacion
RECREATIVO HUELVA
NAVALCARNERO
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 | Navalcarnero | 3 | +6 | 7 |
| 3 |  Sestao River | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 |  UD Santa Marta | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Conil | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 |  Salamanca UDS | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 |  Orihuela | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 |  Binéfar | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Dos Hermanas | 2 | +8 | 3 |
| 10 |  Bergantiños | 2 | +4 | 3 |
| 11 |  Cacereño | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 |  Comillas | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 |  Saguntino | 2 | −3 | 3 |
| 14 |  Derio | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 |  Real Murcia | 3 | −2 | 2 |
| 16 |  Terrassa | 3 | −3 | 2 |
| 17 |  Caudal | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 |  Badalona II | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 |  Compostela | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 |  Mensajero | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 |  CF Talavera | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 |  San Juan | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 |  L'Hospitalet | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 24 |  Torrent | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 25 |  Vimenor | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 26 |  Melilla | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 27 |  Porreres | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 28 |  San Fernando CD | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 29 |  Motril | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 30 |  UD San Pedro | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 31 |  Leioa | 1 | −5 | 0 |
| 32 |  Sporting Ceuta | 1 | −9 | 0 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.