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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Copa del Rey › Portugalete v Real Unión

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Portugalete v Real Unión

Portugalete
18:00Upcoming
Real Unión

Copa del Rey · WED 28 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PortugaleteDrawReal Unión
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Real Unión 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Unión are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portugalete 32%, draw 25%, Real Unión 43%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Portugalete v Real UniónBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Portugalete win32%
Draw25%
Real Unión win43%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundRound of 128

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portugalete

Real Unión

11Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 23 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real unión winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off
43% The market–
Us43%

We make Real Unión a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Portugalete v Real Unión1.34 – 1.59

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45% 22 OCT 00:0125 OCT 00:56
Our probability · Real Unión win

Published at 42%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Portugalete win32%––
Draw25%––
Real Unión win43%––
Over 2.5 goals56%––
Both teams to score59%––
Over 1.5 goals79%––
Over 3.5 goals34%––
Portugalete or draw57%––
Portugalete clean sheet20%––
Real Unión clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 5.7 8.1 6.8 3.6 1 6.8 11.8 9.0 4.8 2 4.8 7.6 6.1 3.2 3 2.1 3.4 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Portugalete down, Real Unión across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa del Rey this season

PORTUGALETE

No matches in our record yet.

REAL UNIÓN

No matches in our record yet.