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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Copa del Rey › Castellonense v Almeria

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Castellonense v Almeria

Castellonense
18:45Upcoming
Almeria

Copa del Rey · TUE 27 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Castalia

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CastellonenseDrawAlmeria
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:45
Before kick-off · Match result · Almeria 72%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Almeria are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Castellonense 11%, draw 17%, Almeria 72%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Castellonense v AlmeriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Castellonense win11%
Draw17%
Almeria win72%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 18:45

RoundRound of 128

VenueEstadio Municipal de Castalia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Castellonense

Almeria

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 24 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · almeria winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
72% The market–
Us72%

We make Almeria a 72% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–2.4, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Castellonense v Almeria0.83 – 2.37

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Castellonense win11%––
Draw17%––
Almeria win72%––
Over 2.5 goals62%––
Both teams to score51%––
Over 1.5 goals83%––
Over 3.5 goals40%––
Castellonense or draw28%––
Castellonense clean sheet9%––
Almeria clean sheet44%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.5%
0123450 4.3 9.4 11.5 9.1 5.4 2.61 3.1 8.3 9.5 7.5 4.5 2.12 3.3 3.9 3.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Castellonense down, Almeria across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa del Rey this season

CASTELLONENSE

No matches in our record yet.

ALMERIA

No matches in our record yet.