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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Copa del Rey › Arosa v Pontevedra

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Arosa v Pontevedra

Arosa
20:00Upcoming
Pontevedra

Copa del Rey · TUE 27 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ArosaDrawPontevedra
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Pontevedra 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pontevedra are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arosa 21%, draw 24%, Pontevedra 55%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Arosa v PontevedraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Arosa win21%
Draw24%
Pontevedra win55%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 128

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arosa

Pontevedra

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera División RFEF - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pontevedra winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off
55% The market–
Us55%

We make Pontevedra a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Arosa v Pontevedra0.98 – 1.74

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 21 OCT 00:0125 OCT 06:19
Our probability · Pontevedra win

Published at 54%, 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Arosa win21%––
Draw24%––
Pontevedra win55%––
Over 2.5 goals51%––
Both teams to score52%––
Over 1.5 goals76%––
Over 3.5 goals29%––
Arosa or draw45%––
Arosa clean sheet18%––
Pontevedra clean sheet38%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 7.0 11.1 10.0 5.8 2.5 1 6.1 11.6 9.8 5.6 2.5 2 3.2 5.5 4.8 2.8 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Arosa down, Pontevedra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsARO 1–1 PON · PON 1–0 ARO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa del Rey this season

AROSA

No matches in our record yet.

PONTEVEDRA

No matches in our record yet.