Anaitasuna v Alaves prediction · Copa del Rey

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AnaitasunaDrawAlaves

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Alaves 92%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alaves are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Anaitasuna 2%, draw 6%, Alaves 92%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Anaitasuna v AlavesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Anaitasuna win2%

Draw6%

Alaves win92%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundRound of 128

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Anaitasuna

Alaves

25Days since last match5

Last match: 3 Oct · Copa del Rey

Last match: 23 Oct · La Liga

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alaves winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

92% The market–

Us92%

We make Alaves a 92% chance to win. The model expects 0.5–3.8, and 0–3 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Anaitasuna v Alaves~~0.51 – 3.81

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anaitasuna win	2%	–	–
Draw	6%	–	–
Alaves win	92%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
Anaitasuna or draw	8%	–	–
Anaitasuna clean sheet	2%	–	–
Alaves clean sheet	60%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 12.3%

0123450 5.0 9.7 12.3 11.7 8.91 2.7 4.9 6.3 6.0 4.52 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anaitasuna down, Alaves across0–5 goals a side shown (81.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,721 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 24 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Anaitasuna play in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4, Alaves in La Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Anaitasuna are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.51 goals for Anaitasuna, 3.81 for Alaves. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa del Rey this season · since 26 Sept

ANAITASUNA

WW5–0 · 5–2

ALAVES

No matches in our record yet.

Anaitasuna v Alaves

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Anaitasuna

Alaves

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Copa del Rey this season · since 26 Sept