Hwacheon KSPO W v Gumi Sportstoto W prediction · WK-League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 14:00

Hwacheon KSPO W 1–1 Gumi Sportstoto W HWACHEON KSPO W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hwacheon KSPO W win~~58%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.895

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.955

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hwacheon KSPO W win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hwacheon KSPO W was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–26–16
1′KICK-OFF Hwacheon KSPO W v Gumi Sportstoto W
4′Gumi Sportstoto W find the net on 4′. 0–0 · 58–26–16
4′We said Hwacheon KSPO W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–1 · 30–28–42
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Hwacheon KSPO W 0–1 Gumi Sportstoto W
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Hwacheon KSPO W win: 58% at kick-off, 30% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Gumi Sportstoto W win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Hwacheon KSPO W win 30%)
6′We said Hwacheon KSPO W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–28–43
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Hwacheon KSPO W win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
20′We said Hwacheon KSPO W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–29–47
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 20–29–50
32′We said Hwacheon KSPO W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–51
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Hwacheon KSPO W win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
44′We said Hwacheon KSPO W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–29–56
45′HALF-TIME Hwacheon KSPO W 0–1 Gumi Sportstoto W
46′SECOND HALF Hwacheon KSPO W 0–1 Gumi Sportstoto W
56′We said Hwacheon KSPO W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–63
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Hwacheon KSPO W win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
69′We said Hwacheon KSPO W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–22–73
FTFULL TIME Hwacheon KSPO W 1–1 Gumi Sportstoto W
FTHwacheon KSPO W 1–1 Gumi Sportstoto W · Hwacheon KSPO W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hwacheon KSPO W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hwacheon KSPO W 58%, draw 27%, Gumi Sportstoto W 16%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Hwacheon KSPO W v Gumi Sportstoto WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Hwacheon KSPO W win58%

Draw27%

Gumi Sportstoto W win16%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hwacheon KSPO W

Gumi Sportstoto W

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Hwacheon KSPO W	27	+25	54
6	Gumi Sportstoto W	26	−8	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hwacheon kspo w winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

58% The market60%

Us58%

~~Market~~60%

We make Hwacheon KSPO W a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hwacheon KSPO W v Gumi Sportstoto W~~1.54 – 0.67

~~Form · last six in WK-League this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 54 v 32~~2 v 6

~~The market · Hwacheon KSPO W win~~60% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hwacheon kspo w win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hwacheon KSPO W win	58%	60%	−2
Draw	27%	24%	+2
Gumi Sportstoto W win	16%	16%	0
Over 2.5 goals	38%	46%	−8
Both teams to score	38%	45%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	65%	70%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	18%	26%	−8
Hwacheon KSPO W or draw	84%	84%	0
Hwacheon KSPO W clean sheet	52%	–	–
Gumi Sportstoto W clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.4%

0123450 11.9 6.8 2.5 1 16.4 11.6 3.7 2 12.9 8.4 2.8 3 6.7 4.4 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hwacheon KSPO W down, Gumi Sportstoto W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 596 WK-League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

WK-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

The last 10 meetings, in every competition we cover: 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hwacheon KSPO W at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gumi Sportstoto W away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Hwacheon KSPO W, 0.67 for Gumi Sportstoto W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GUM 0–0 HWA · HWA 2–0 GUM · GUM 0–1 HWA · GUM 1–1 HWA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in WK-League this season · since 21 Aug

HWACHEON KSPO W

WDDDWW2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

GUMI SPORTSTOTO W

WWLLLD2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon FMC W	26	+38	59
2	Hwacheon KSPO W	27	+25	54
3	Seoul W	27	−9	37
4	Boeun Sangmu W	26	−6	36
5	Gyeongju W	26	+4	34
6	Gumi Sportstoto W	26	−8	32
7	Incheon Red Angels W	26	−17	24
8	Changnyeong W	26	−27	18