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Yangpyeong v Ulsan Citizen

Yangpyeong

2–1Full time

Ulsan Citizen

K3 League · FRI 9 OCT

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Yangpyeong win38%

Draw28%

Ulsan Citizen win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 05:36

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 06:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Published on launch night, before our public record began. Shown as it was published, and not counted in the record.

Our number · yangpyeong winPublished 9 Oct 05:36

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Yangpyeong a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yangpyeong win	38%	36%	+2
Draw	28%	28%	0
Ulsan Citizen win	34%	36%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Yangpyeong or draw	66%	64%	+2
Yangpyeong clean sheet	33%	–	–
Ulsan Citizen clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.1 11.0 6.2 2.4 1 11.7 13.0 7.3 2.8 2 7.0 7.7 4.4 3 2.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yangpyeong down, Ulsan Citizen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,277 K3 League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.4% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.71 goals a meeting; 1 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yangpyeong at home: 2.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ulsan Citizen away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Yangpyeong, 1.13 for Ulsan Citizen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.71

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ULS 0–0 YAN · ULS 0–1 YAN · YAN 2–0 ULS · ULS 3–2 YAN

Form · last six in K3 League

YANGPYEONG

LDLLLL2–4 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–2

ULSAN CITIZEN

LWWLWL1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Siheung Citizen	23	+17	55
2	Pocheon	23	+19	46
3	Daejeon Korail	23	+15	41
4	Busan Transportation	23	+11	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	+4	35
6	Dangjin Citizen	23	+7	31
7	Chuncheon	23	+4	30
8	Changwon City	23	−2	29
9	Ulsan Citizen	23	−2	28
10	Yeoju Sejong	23	−3	28
11	Gangneung City	23	−11	27
12	Mokpo City	23	−14	24
13	Yangpyeong	23	−17	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	23	−28	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

Head to head

Form · last six in K3 League

The table