Gyeongju HNP v Mokpo City prediction · K3 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 08:33

Gyeongju HNP 1–1 Mokpo City GYEONGJU HNP WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gyeongju HNP win~~56%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.940

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.902

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gyeongju HNP win at 56%.
1′KICK-OFF Gyeongju HNP v Mokpo City
2′Little has changed for our model: Gyeongju HNP 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–20
3′Little has changed for our model: Gyeongju HNP 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–20
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Gyeongju HNP 1–0 Mokpo City
45′HALF-TIME Gyeongju HNP 1–0 Mokpo City
46′SECOND HALF Gyeongju HNP 1–0 Mokpo City
82′⚽ GOAL · 47' Gyeongju HNP 1–0 Mokpo City
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Gyeongju HNP 1–1 Mokpo City
FTFULL TIME Gyeongju HNP 1–1 Mokpo City
FTGyeongju HNP 1–1 Mokpo City · Gyeongju HNP win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gyeongju HNP win56%

Draw24%

Mokpo City win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 06:00

VenueGyeongju Civic Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gyeongju HNP

Mokpo City

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	+4	35
12	Mokpo City	23	−14	24

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gyeongju hnp winPublished 11 Oct 06:01

56% The market55%

Us56%

~~Market~~55%

We make Gyeongju HNP a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gyeongju hnp win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gyeongju HNP win	56%	55%	+1
Draw	24%	25%	−2
Mokpo City win	20%	20%	0
Over 2.5 goals	50%	52%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	32%	−4
Gyeongju HNP or draw	80%	80%	0
Gyeongju HNP clean sheet	39%	–	–
Mokpo City clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 7.1 6.6 3.1 1 12.0 11.1 5.2 2 10.3 9.5 4.5 3 6.0 5.5 2.6 4 2.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gyeongju HNP down, Mokpo City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,282 K3 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.4% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 1.92 goals a meeting; 2 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gyeongju HNP at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mokpo City away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Gyeongju HNP, 0.94 for Mokpo City. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.92

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 12

~~Both scored~~4 of 12

~~Last meetings~~MOK 0–1 GYE · GYE 2–0 MOK · MOK 0–1 GYE · MOK 4–0 GYE

Form · last six in K3 League

GYEONGJU HNP

WDWWWW1–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–2

MOKPO CITY

LLWLWW1–6 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Siheung Citizen	23	+17	55
2	Pocheon	24	+21	49
3	Daejeon Korail	24	+14	41
4	Busan Transportation	24	+12	40
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	+4	35
6	Dangjin Citizen	24	+8	34
7	Chuncheon	24	+5	33
8	Changwon City	24	−4	29
9	Ulsan Citizen	24	−3	28
10	Yeoju Sejong	24	−4	28
11	Gangneung City	23	−11	27
12	Mokpo City	23	−14	24
13	Yangpyeong	24	−16	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	24	−29	10