Gangneung City v Siheung Citizen prediction · K3 League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 08:33

Gangneung City 2–1 Siheung Citizen SIHEUNG CITIZEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Siheung Citizen win~~54%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.950

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.901

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Siheung Citizen win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Siheung Citizen was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 22–24–54
1′KICK-OFF Gangneung City v Siheung Citizen
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Gangneung City 1–0 Siheung Citizen
3′⚽ GOAL · 4' Gangneung City 1–0 Siheung Citizen
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Gangneung City 1–1 Siheung Citizen
5′⚽ GOAL · 6' Gangneung City 1–1 Siheung Citizen
23′A goal for Siheung Citizen on 6′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–30–49
32′⚽ GOAL · 33' Gangneung City 1–1 Siheung Citizen
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Gangneung City 2–1 Siheung Citizen
45′SECOND HALF Gangneung City 2–1 Siheung Citizen
78′⚽ GOAL · 4' Gangneung City 2–1 Siheung Citizen
78′⚽ GOAL · 6' Gangneung City 2–1 Siheung Citizen
78′⚽ GOAL · 33' Gangneung City 2–1 Siheung Citizen
FTFULL TIME Gangneung City 2–1 Siheung Citizen
FTGangneung City 2–1 Siheung Citizen · Siheung Citizen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gangneung City win22%

Draw24%

Siheung Citizen win54%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 06:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gangneung City

Siheung Citizen

9Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Siheung Citizen	23	+17	55
11	Gangneung City	23	−11	27

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · siheung citizen winPublished 11 Oct 06:01

54% The market49%

Us54%

~~Market~~49%

We make Siheung Citizen a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · siheung citizen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gangneung City win	22%	23%	−1
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Siheung Citizen win	54%	49%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	50%	46%	+4
Both teams to score	50%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	27%	+1
Gangneung City or draw	46%	51%	−5
Gangneung City clean sheet	19%	–	–
Siheung Citizen clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.2 11.8 9.8 5.5 2.4 1 7.0 11.3 9.4 5.3 2.3 2 3.4 5.6 4.6 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gangneung City down, Siheung Citizen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,282 K3 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.4% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gangneung City at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Siheung Citizen away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Gangneung City, 1.68 for Siheung Citizen. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SIH 1–1 GAN · SIH 0–1 GAN · GAN 2–2 SIH · GAN 2–1 SIH

Form · last six in K3 League

GANGNEUNG CITY

DWWDLL1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

SIHEUNG CITIZEN

LWWWWW0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Siheung Citizen	23	+17	55
2	Pocheon	24	+21	49
3	Daejeon Korail	24	+14	41
4	Busan Transportation	24	+12	40
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	+4	35
6	Dangjin Citizen	24	+8	34
7	Chuncheon	24	+5	33
8	Changwon City	24	−4	29
9	Ulsan Citizen	24	−3	28
10	Yeoju Sejong	24	−4	28
11	Gangneung City	23	−11	27
12	Mokpo City	23	−14	24
13	Yangpyeong	24	−16	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	24	−29	10