Dangjin Citizen v Siheung Citizen prediction · K3 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Dangjin CitizenDrawSiheung Citizen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Siheung Citizen 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Siheung Citizen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dangjin Citizen 31%, draw 23%, Siheung Citizen 46%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Dangjin Citizen v Siheung CitizenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Dangjin Citizen win31%

Draw23%

Siheung Citizen win46%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dangjin Citizen

Siheung Citizen

21Days since last match20

Last match: 10 Oct · K3 League

Last match: 11 Oct · K3 League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · siheung citizen winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Siheung Citizen a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dangjin Citizen v Siheung Citizen~~1.45 – 1.82

~~Form · last six in K3 League this season · since 25 July~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 34 v 55~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dangjin Citizen win	31%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Siheung Citizen win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Dangjin Citizen or draw	54%	–	–
Dangjin Citizen clean sheet	17%	–	–
Siheung Citizen clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.0 7.0 6.3 3.8 1 5.7 9.9 8.8 5.4 2.5 2 4.1 7.1 6.4 3.9 3 3.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dangjin Citizen down, Siheung Citizen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,284 K3 League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.4% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dangjin Citizen at home: 3.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Siheung Citizen away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Dangjin Citizen, 1.82 for Siheung Citizen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SIH 2–1 DAN · DAN 1–1 SIH · SIH 2–1 DAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K3 League this season · since 25 July

DANGJIN CITIZEN

WLLWLW6–1 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 5–3 · 2–3 · 1–0

SIHEUNG CITIZEN

WWWWWL2–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Siheung Citizen	24	+16	55
2	Pocheon	24	+21	49
3	Daejeon Korail	24	+14	41
4	Busan Transportation	24	+12	40
5	Gyeongju HNP	24	+4	36
6	Dangjin Citizen	24	+8	34
7	Chuncheon	24	+5	33
8	Gangneung City	24	−10	30
9	Changwon City	24	−4	29
10	Ulsan Citizen	24	−3	28
11	Yeoju Sejong	24	−4	28
12	Mokpo City	24	−14	25
13	Yangpyeong	24	−16	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	24	−29	10