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Chuncheon v Jeonbuk Motors II

Chuncheon

3–2Full time

Jeonbuk Motors II

K3 League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Chuncheon 3–2 Jeonbuk Motors II CHUNCHEON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chuncheon win~~57%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.281

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.216

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chuncheon win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chuncheon was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–21
1′KICK-OFF Chuncheon v Jeonbuk Motors II
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Chuncheon 1–0 Jeonbuk Motors II
45′HALF-TIME Chuncheon 1–0 Jeonbuk Motors II
46′SECOND HALF Chuncheon 1–0 Jeonbuk Motors II
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Chuncheon 2–0 Jeonbuk Motors II
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Chuncheon 2–1 Jeonbuk Motors II
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Chuncheon 3–1 Jeonbuk Motors II
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Chuncheon 3–2 Jeonbuk Motors II
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Chuncheon 4–2 Jeonbuk Motors II
FTFULL TIME Chuncheon 3–2 Jeonbuk Motors II
FTChuncheon 3–2 Jeonbuk Motors II · Chuncheon win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chuncheon win57%

Draw22%

Jeonbuk Motors II win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chuncheon winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

57% The market62%

Us57%

~~Market~~62%

We make Chuncheon a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chuncheon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 64% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chuncheon win	57%	62%	−6
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Jeonbuk Motors II win	21%	15%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	58%	53%	+6
Both teams to score	57%	50%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	80%	75%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	36%	32%	+4
Chuncheon or draw	79%	85%	−6
Chuncheon clean sheet	34%	–	–
Jeonbuk Motors II clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 5.0 5.3 2.9 1 9.3 10.1 5.6 2.1 2 8.9 9.7 5.3 3 5.8 6.3 3.4 4 2.9 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chuncheon down, Jeonbuk Motors II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,278 K3 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chuncheon at home: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Jeonbuk Motors II away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Chuncheon, 1.10 for Jeonbuk Motors II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CHU 6–1 JEO · JEO 2–1 CHU · CHU 3–1 JEO

Form · last six in K3 League

CHUNCHEON

WLWWWD2–1 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

JEONBUK MOTORS II

LDLLLL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Siheung Citizen	23	+17	55
2	Pocheon	23	+19	46
3	Daejeon Korail	23	+15	41
4	Busan Transportation	23	+11	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	+4	35
6	Dangjin Citizen	23	+7	31
7	Chuncheon	23	+4	30
8	Changwon City	23	−2	29
9	Yeoju Sejong	23	−3	28
10	Ulsan Citizen	24	−3	28
11	Gangneung City	23	−11	27
12	Mokpo City	23	−14	24
13	Yangpyeong	24	−16	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	23	−28	10