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Changwon City v Pocheon

Changwon City

1–3Full time

Pocheon

K3 League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Changwon City 1–3 Pocheon POCHEON WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pocheon win~~37%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.588

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.444

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pocheon win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pocheon 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
1′KICK-OFF Changwon City v Pocheon
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Pocheon win 30%)
45′SECOND HALF Changwon City 0–0 Pocheon
67′⚽ GOAL · 68' Changwon City 0–0 Pocheon
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Changwon City 1–0 Pocheon
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Changwon City 1–1 Pocheon
79′⚽ GOAL · 80' Changwon City 1–1 Pocheon
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Changwon City 1–1 Pocheon
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Changwon City 1–2 Pocheon
96′⚽ GOAL · 97' Changwon City 1–2 Pocheon
FTFULL TIME Changwon City 1–3 Pocheon
FTChangwon City 1–3 Pocheon · Pocheon win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Changwon City win34%

Draw28%

Pocheon win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pocheon winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

37% The market46%

Us37%

~~Market~~46%

We make Pocheon a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pocheon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Changwon City win	34%	25%	+9
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Pocheon win	37%	46%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	40%	44%	−3
Both teams to score	46%	49%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Changwon City or draw	63%	54%	+8
Changwon City clean sheet	31%	–	–
Pocheon clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.3 11.9 7.0 2.8 1 11.2 13.1 7.7 3.1 2 6.3 7.3 4.3 3 2.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Changwon City down, Pocheon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,278 K3 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Changwon City at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pocheon away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Changwon City, 1.18 for Pocheon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~POC 0–0 CHA · CHA 1–2 POC · POC 1–0 CHA · CHA 0–0 POC

Form · last six in K3 League

CHANGWON CITY

DLLLLW1–1 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 2–1

POCHEON

DWLWWD1–1 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Siheung Citizen	23	+17	55
2	Pocheon	23	+19	46
3	Daejeon Korail	23	+15	41
4	Busan Transportation	23	+11	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	+4	35
6	Dangjin Citizen	23	+7	31
7	Chuncheon	23	+4	30
8	Changwon City	23	−2	29
9	Yeoju Sejong	23	−3	28
10	Ulsan Citizen	24	−3	28
11	Gangneung City	23	−11	27
12	Mokpo City	23	−14	24
13	Yangpyeong	24	−16	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	23	−28	10