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Busan Transportation v Yeoju Sejong

Busan Transportation

2–1Full time

Yeoju Sejong

K3 League · SAT 10 OCT · Busan Gudeok Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Busan Transportation 2–1 Yeoju Sejong BUSAN TRANSPORTATION WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Busan Transportation win~~48%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.412

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.428

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Busan Transportation win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Busan Transportation 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
1′KICK-OFF Busan Transportation v Yeoju Sejong
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Busan Transportation 1–0 Yeoju Sejong
29′⚽ GOAL · 30' Busan Transportation 1–0 Yeoju Sejong
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Busan Transportation 2–0 Yeoju Sejong
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' Busan Transportation 2–0 Yeoju Sejong
45′SECOND HALF Busan Transportation 2–0 Yeoju Sejong
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Busan Transportation 2–1 Yeoju Sejong
78′⚽ GOAL · 79' Busan Transportation 2–1 Yeoju Sejong
FTFULL TIME Busan Transportation 2–1 Yeoju Sejong
FTBusan Transportation 2–1 Yeoju Sejong · Busan Transportation win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Busan Transportation win48%

Draw25%

Yeoju Sejong win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · Busan Gudeok Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · busan transportation winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Busan Transportation a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Busan Transportation win	48%	47%	+1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Yeoju Sejong win	28%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	51%	+1
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Busan Transportation or draw	72%	74%	−1
Busan Transportation clean sheet	32%	–	–
Yeoju Sejong clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.7 7.4 4.3 1 10.3 11.7 6.7 2.6 2 8.1 9.2 5.3 2.0 3 4.4 4.9 2.8 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Busan Transportation down, Yeoju Sejong across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,278 K3 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K3 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Busan Transportation at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Yeoju Sejong away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Busan Transportation, 1.15 for Yeoju Sejong. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~YEO 1–1 BUS · YEO 1–3 BUS · BUS 1–1 YEO · YEO 0–1 BUS

Form · last six in K3 League

BUSAN TRANSPORTATION

WWLDLL4–2 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–5 · 1–3

YEOJU SEJONG

DWLLLW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Siheung Citizen	23	+17	55
2	Pocheon	23	+19	46
3	Daejeon Korail	23	+15	41
4	Busan Transportation	23	+11	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	+4	35
6	Dangjin Citizen	23	+7	31
7	Chuncheon	23	+4	30
8	Changwon City	23	−2	29
9	Yeoju Sejong	23	−3	28
10	Ulsan Citizen	24	−3	28
11	Gangneung City	23	−11	27
12	Mokpo City	23	−14	24
13	Yangpyeong	24	−16	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	23	−28	10