Yongin City v Ansan Greeners prediction · K League 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 11:07

Yongin City 0–4 Ansan Greeners YONGIN CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yongin City win~~53%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.955

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.939

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yongin City win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Yongin City 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
1′KICK-OFF Yongin City v Ansan Greeners
25′SUBSTITUTION · 24' Ansan Greeners · On: T. Hartzell · Off: Yeon Jei-Min
30′We said Yongin City at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–6
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–6
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Yongin City 1–0 Ansan Greeners
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Yongin City win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
32′A goal for Yongin City on 30′. 0–0 · 46–33–21
32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 32' Yongin City
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Yongin City win: 53% at kick-off, 46% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Yongin City win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′We said Yongin City at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–39–20
45′SECOND HALF Yongin City 0–0 Ansan Greeners
47′HALF-TIME Yongin City 0–0 Ansan Greeners
49′We said Yongin City at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–27–61
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Yongin City 0–1 Ansan Greeners
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Yongin City win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Ansan Greeners win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Yongin City win 13%)
50′Ansan Greeners find the net on 49′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–27–61
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Ansan Greeners
58′We said Yongin City at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Yongin City · On: Jin Tae-Ho · Off: Kim Jin-ho
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Yongin City · On: Choi Chi-Ung · Off: Suk Hyun-Jun
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ansan Greeners · On: Kim In-Sung · Off: M. Chol
71′We said Yongin City at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Yongin City win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Yongin City 0–2 Ansan Greeners
75′A goal for Ansan Greeners on 75′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Ansan Greeners
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Yongin City · On: Jardel · Off: Kim Han-Seo
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Yongin City · On: Lee Jin-Seop · Off: Choi Young-Jun
78′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Yongin City 0–3 Ansan Greeners
79′Ansan Greeners score on 79′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ansan Greeners · On: Kang Dong-Hyun · Off: Marlon Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ansan Greeners · On: Kang Dong-Hyun · Off: Im Ji-min
93′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Yongin City · On: K. Lee · Off: Kim Bo-Sub
94′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Yongin City 0–4 Ansan Greeners
FTFULL TIME Yongin City 0–4 Ansan Greeners
FTYongin City 0–4 Ansan Greeners · Yongin City win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yongin City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yongin City 53%, draw 25%, Ansan Greeners 22%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Yongin City v Ansan GreenersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Yongin City win53%

Draw25%

Ansan Greeners win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueYongin Mireu Stadium

Line-ups

Yongin City

Ansan Greeners

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yongin City

Ansan Greeners

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 11 Oct · K League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Yongin City	26	−5	27
16	Ansan Greeners	27	−25	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Yongin City

Formation not confirmed

21 Hwang Seong-Min

15 Kim Hyeon-jun

4 Kwak Yun-Ho

26 Lim Chai-Min

22 Kim Han-Gil

8 Choi Young-Jun

66 Kim Han-Seo

11 Gabriel Tigrao

24 Kim Jin-ho

27 Kim Bo-Sub

9 Suk Hyun-Jun

Coach · Yun-Kyum Choi

Substitutes

31 · Roh Hee-Dong

5 · Lim Hyeong-Jin

18 · Lee Jae-hyung

44 · Lee Jin-Seop

12 · Cho Jae-Hun

30 · K. Lee

17 · Jin Tae-Ho

10 · Jardel

20 · Choi Chi-Ung

Ansan Greeners

Formation not confirmed

1 Lee Seung-Bin

25 Cho Ji-Hun

6 Park Kyu-Min

4 Yeon Jei-Min

5 Yeon Eung-bin

2 Jang Hyun-Soo

28 Kim Jung-Hyun

26 Im Ji-min

77 Marlon

9 M. Chol

10 Gabriel Lima

Coach · Moon-Sik Choi

Substitutes

21 · D. Kim

44 · T. Hartzell

3 · Kang Dong-Hyun

55 · Lee Hyo-jun

7 · Ryu Seung-Woo

8 · Jeong Hyun-woo

17 · Ryu Seung-Wan

92 · Kim In-Sung

19 · J. Lee

Our number · yongin city winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

53% The market52%

Us53%

~~Market~~52%

We make Yongin City a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yongin City v Ansan Greeners~~1.69 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 27 v 22~~13 v 16

~~The market · Yongin City win~~52% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yongin City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yongin City win	53%	52%	+1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Ansan Greeners win	22%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	73%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	30%	−2
Yongin City or draw	78%	78%	0
Yongin City clean sheet	37%	–	–
Ansan Greeners clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.5 6.3 3.4 1 11.0 11.8 5.7 2 9.7 9.5 4.7 3 5.5 5.4 2.7 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yongin City down, Ansan Greeners across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,375 K League 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.3% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yongin City at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ansan Greeners away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Yongin City, 1.00 for Ansan Greeners. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ANS 1–2 YON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 Aug

YONGIN CITY

LWDLDL1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–2

ANSAN GREENERS

LLWLLL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	26	+22	56
2	Suwon City FC	26	+22	51
3	Seoul E-Land FC	27	+16	51
4	Daegu FC	26	+13	46
5	Hwaseong	27	+13	44
6	Busan I Park	27	+7	42
7	Asan Mugunghwa	26	+3	35
8	Gimpo Citizen	26	0	35
9	Gyeongnam FC	26	0	34
10	Cheongju	27	−8	32
11	Seongnam FC	26	−4	31
12	Paju Citizen	26	−4	30
13	Yongin City	26	−5	27
14	Cheonan City	27	−6	26
15	Jeonnam Dragons	26	−14	24
16	Ansan Greeners	27	−25	22
17	Gimhae City	26	−30	14