Suwon City FC v Asan Mugunghwa prediction · K League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Suwon City FCDrawAsan Mugunghwa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Suwon City FC 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Suwon City FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Suwon City FC 48%, draw 26%, Asan Mugunghwa 26%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Suwon City FC v Asan MugunghwaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Suwon City FC win48%

Draw26%

Asan Mugunghwa win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueSuwon Sports Complex

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Suwon City FC

Asan Mugunghwa

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · K League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Suwon City FC	27	+23	54
8	Asan Mugunghwa	27	+3	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · suwon city fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market52%

Us48%

~~Market~~52%

We make Suwon City FC a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Suwon City FC v Asan Mugunghwa~~1.62 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 54 v 36~~2 v 8

~~The market · Suwon City FC win~~52% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Suwon City FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Suwon City FC win	48%	52%	−4
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Asan Mugunghwa win	26%	23%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	52%	53%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Suwon City FC or draw	74%	77%	−3
Suwon City FC clean sheet	33%	–	–
Asan Mugunghwa clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.1 6.8 4.1 1 9.9 12.1 6.5 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.2 3 4.5 5.0 2.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Suwon City FC down, Asan Mugunghwa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,385 K League 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 234 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Suwon City FC at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Asan Mugunghwa away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Suwon City FC, 1.13 for Asan Mugunghwa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ASA 1–3 SUW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 23 Aug

SUWON CITY FC

WDDWWW2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

ASAN MUGUNGHWA

WLLWDD2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	27	+23	59
2	Suwon City FC	27	+23	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	+20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	+17	52
5	Busan I Park	28	+8	45
6	Hwaseong	28	+12	44
7	Gimpo Citizen	28	+2	38
8	Asan Mugunghwa	27	+3	36
9	Gyeongnam FC	27	0	35
10	Cheongju	28	−10	32
11	Seongnam FC	27	−5	31
12	Paju Citizen	27	−7	30
13	Yongin City	27	−9	27
14	Cheonan City	27	−6	26
15	Ansan Greeners	28	−21	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	−17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	−33	17