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Suwon Bluewings v Hwaseong

Suwon Bluewings
3–2Full time
Hwaseong

K League 2 · SUN 18 OCT · Suwon World Cup Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 08:31
Suwon Bluewings 3–2 Hwaseong SUWON BLUEWINGS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Suwon Bluewings win49%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.397
The market’s Brier score0.291

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Suwon Bluewings win at 49%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF Suwon Bluewings v Hwaseong
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Suwon Bluewings 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
  4. 18′We said Suwon Bluewings at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
  5. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Suwon Bluewings 1–0 Hwaseong
  6. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Suwon Bluewings win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
  7. 19′Suwon Bluewings score on 19′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
  8. 21′We said Suwon Bluewings at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  9. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Suwon Bluewings 2–0 Hwaseong
  10. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Suwon Bluewings win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
  11. 22′Suwon Bluewings find the net on 21′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
  12. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Hwaseong
  13. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Hwaseong
  14. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Suwon Bluewings
  15. 35′A goal for Hwaseong on 35′. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  16. 38′L. Pllana scores for Hwaseong on 37′. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  17. 40′GOAL DISALLOWED · 35' L. Pllana · Hwaseong
  18. 41′We said Suwon Bluewings at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Suwon Bluewings 3–0 Hwaseong
  20. 45′SECOND HALF Suwon Bluewings 3–0 Hwaseong
  21. 46′A goal for Suwon Bluewings on 45′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  22. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Yang Si-Hoo · Hwaseong
  23. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Lee Jung-Hyo · Suwon Bluewings
  24. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hwaseong · On: S. Jeon · Off: Lee Jong-Sung
  25. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hwaseong · On: Choi Myung-Hee · Off: Yang Si-Hoo
  26. 51′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  27. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Suwon Bluewings 3–0 Hwaseong
  28. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Suwon Bluewings win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
  29. 54′We said Suwon Bluewings at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  30. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Hwaseong
  31. 58′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–0
  32. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Suwon Bluewings 3–1 Hwaseong
  33. 59′Hwaseong score on 59′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
  34. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Hwaseong · On: S. Petrov · Off: Kim Byung-Oh
  35. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Hwaseong
  36. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Suwon Bluewings · On: E. Dubickas · Off: Kang Hyun-Muk
  37. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Suwon Bluewings · On: Kim Joo-Chan · Off: K. Lebon
  38. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Suwon Bluewings · On: Park Hyun-Bin · Off: Kim Min-Woo
  39. 73′We said Suwon Bluewings at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 3–2 · 87–12–1
  40. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Suwon Bluewings · On: Bruno Costa · Off: L. Mina
  41. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Suwon Bluewings 3–2 Hwaseong
  42. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Suwon Bluewings win: 49% at kick-off, 87% now
  43. 74′Hwaseong find the net on 74′. 3–2. 3–2 · 87–12–1
  44. 75′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 88–11–1
  45. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Suwon Bluewings · On: Mo Kyung-bin · Off: Han Hyeon-Seo Corrected
  46. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Hwaseong · On: S. Ilyuchenko · Off: L. Pllana
  47. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Hwaseong · On: Son Seung-Beom · Off: Jegal Jae-Min
  48. 90′3–2 at the end. Our 49% on Suwon Bluewings comes in. 3–2 · 100–0–0
  49. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Suwon Bluewings win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
  50. FTFULL TIME Suwon Bluewings 3–2 Hwaseong
  51. FTSuwon Bluewings 3–2 Hwaseong · Suwon Bluewings win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Suwon Bluewings are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Suwon Bluewings 49%, draw 27%, Hwaseong 25%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Suwon Bluewings v HwaseongBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Suwon Bluewings win49%
Draw27%
Hwaseong win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueSuwon World Cup Stadium

Line-ups

Suwon Bluewings

Hwaseong

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Suwon Bluewings

Hwaseong

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 9 Oct · K League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Suwon Bluewings26+2256
5Hwaseong27+1344

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Suwon Bluewings

Formation not confirmed

30 J. Kim

27 Lee Geon-hee

5 Ko Jong-hyun

66 Han Hyeon-Seo

92 Lee Sang-min

22 Kang Seong-Jin

23 Kim Min-Woo

14 Jung Ho-yeon

8 K. Lebon

70 L. Mina

17 Kang Hyun-Muk

Coach · Jung-Hyo Lee

Substitutes

1 · Kim Min-Jun

20 · Hong Jeong-Ho

3 · Mo Kyung-bin

11 · Lee Jun-Jae

16 · Park Hyun-Bin

19 · Kim Seong-Ju

98 · E. Dubickas

37 · Kim Joo-Chan

58 · Bruno Costa

Hwaseong

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Kim

44 Ham Sun-Woo

97 Lee Rae-Jun

15 A. Vojnovic

20 Park Jun-seo

5 Yang Si-Hoo

92 Lee Jong-Sung

22 D. Kim

11 L. Pllana

14 Kim Byung-Oh

7 Jegal Jae-Min

Coach · Du-Ri Cha

Substitutes

38 · E. Park

24 · Choi Ye-Hoon

2 · C. Lim

6 · Kim Jung-Min

16 · Choi Myung-Hee

8 · S. Jeon

29 · Son Seung-Beom

90 · S. Ilyuchenko

9 · S. Petrov

Our number · suwon bluewings winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
49% The market56%
Us49%
Market56%

We make Suwon Bluewings a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Suwon Bluewings v Hwaseong1.54 – 1.02
Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 15 AugW5 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 56 v 441 v 5
The market · Suwon Bluewings win56% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 05:42
Our probability · Suwon Bluewings win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Suwon Bluewings win49%56%−7
Draw27%24%+3
Hwaseong win25%20%+5
Over 2.5 goals47%56%−9
Both teams to score50%55%−5
Over 1.5 goals73%77%−4
Over 3.5 goals25%35%−10
Suwon Bluewings or draw75%80%−5
Suwon Bluewings clean sheet36%––
Hwaseong clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%
0123450 8.5 7.4 4.1 1 11.4 12.6 6.1 2.1 2 9.1 9.2 4.7 3 4.7 4.7 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Suwon Bluewings down, Hwaseong across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored4 of 4
Last meetingsHWA 1–2 SUW · HWA 2–3 SUW · HWA 1–1 SUW · SUW 3–1 HWA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 15 Aug

SUWON BLUEWINGS

DWWWWW2–2 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 4–1

HWASEONG

LWDWDL0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Suwon Bluewings26+2256
2Suwon City FC27+2354
3Seoul E-Land FC27+1651
4Daegu FC27+1549
5Hwaseong27+1344
6Busan I Park27+742
7Gimpo Citizen27+338
8Asan Mugunghwa27+336
9Gyeongnam FC27035
10Cheongju28−1032
11Seongnam FC27−531
12Paju Citizen27−730
13Yongin City27−927
14Cheonan City27−626
15Ansan Greeners28−2125
16Jeonnam Dragons26−1424
17Gimhae City26−3014

The competition's standings before kick-off.