Suwon Bluewings v Ansan Greeners prediction · K League 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 08:33

Suwon Bluewings 4–1 Ansan Greeners SUWON BLUEWINGS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Suwon Bluewings win~~66%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.174

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.085

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Suwon Bluewings win at 66%.
1′We published Suwon Bluewings at 66%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–10–4
1′KICK-OFF Suwon Bluewings v Ansan Greeners
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Suwon Bluewings 1–0 Ansan Greeners
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Suwon Bluewings win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
1′⚽ GOAL · 2' Suwon Bluewings 1–0 Ansan Greeners
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Suwon Bluewings win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
3′A goal for Suwon Bluewings on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
24′L. Mina scores for Suwon Bluewings on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–11–3
24′We published Suwon Bluewings at 66%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–11–3
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Suwon Bluewings 2–0 Ansan Greeners · L. Mina
27′PENALTY MISSED · 28' Suwon Bluewings
27′⚽ GOAL · 28' Suwon Bluewings 2–0 Ansan Greeners
33′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Ansan Greeners · On: T. Hartzell · Off: Lee Hyo-jun
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Suwon Bluewings win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
45′SECOND HALF Suwon Bluewings 2–0 Ansan Greeners
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Suwon Bluewings 3–0 Ansan Greeners · L. Mina
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Suwon Bluewings 3–0 Ansan Greeners
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Ansan Greeners
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Suwon Bluewings 4–0 Ansan Greeners · L. Mina
61′⚽ GOAL · 62' Suwon Bluewings 4–0 Ansan Greeners
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Suwon Bluewings · On: Kim Joo-Chan · Off: K. Lebon
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Suwon Bluewings 4–1 Ansan Greeners · Cho Ji-Hun
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Suwon Bluewings · On: Kang Hyun-Muk · Off: L. Mina
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Suwon Bluewings · On: Kang Hyun-Muk · Off: L. Mina
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Suwon Bluewings 4–1 Ansan Greeners
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ansan Greeners · On: Kang Dong-Hyun · Off: Im Ji-min Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ansan Greeners · On: Ryu Seung-Wan · Off: Marlon Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ansan Greeners · On: Kim In-Sung · Off: M. Chol
81′⚽ GOAL · 2' Suwon Bluewings 4–1 Ansan Greeners · L. Mina (assist Kim Min-Woo)
81′PENALTY MISSED · 27' L. Mina · Suwon Bluewings
81′⚽ GOAL · 27' Suwon Bluewings 4–1 Ansan Greeners · L. Mina
81′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Ansan Greeners · On: T. Hartzell · Off: Lee Hyo-jun
81′⚽ GOAL · 57' Suwon Bluewings 4–1 Ansan Greeners · L. Mina (assist Jung Ho-yeon)
81′🟨 YELLOW · 60' M. Chol · Ansan Greeners
81′⚽ GOAL · 62' Suwon Bluewings 4–1 Ansan Greeners · Cho Ji-Hun
81′⚽ GOAL · 65' Suwon Bluewings 4–1 Ansan Greeners · Ryu Seung-Wan
81′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Suwon Bluewings · On: Lee Jun-Jae · Off: Lee Sang-min
81′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Suwon Bluewings · On: Kim Joo-Chan · Off: K. Lebon
81′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Suwon Bluewings · On: Kang Hyun-Muk · Off: L. Mina
81′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ansan Greeners · On: Kang Dong-Hyun · Off: Im Ji-min
81′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ansan Greeners · On: Ryu Seung-Wan · Off: Marlon
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ansan Greeners · On: Kim In-Sung · Off: M. Chol
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ansan Greeners · On: Jeong Hyun-woo · Off: Kim Jung-Hyun
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Suwon Bluewings · On: Park Hyun-Bin · Off: Kang Seong-Jin Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Suwon Bluewings · On: E. Dubickas · Off: Kim Min-Woo
FTFULL TIME Suwon Bluewings 4–1 Ansan Greeners
FTSuwon Bluewings 4–1 Ansan Greeners · Suwon Bluewings win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Suwon Bluewings win66%

Draw21%

Ansan Greeners win13%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 06:00

VenueSuwon World Cup Stadium

Line-ups

Suwon Bluewings

Ansan Greeners

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Suwon Bluewings

Ansan Greeners

29Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	25	+19	53
16	Ansan Greeners	26	−22	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Suwon Bluewings

Formation not confirmed

30 J. Kim

27 Lee Geon-hee

5 Ko Jong-hyun

66 Han Hyeon-Seo

92 Lee Sang-min

22 Kang Seong-Jin

23 Kim Min-Woo

14 Jung Ho-yeon

8 K. Lebon

7 Fessin

70 L. Mina

Coach · Jung-Hyo Lee

Substitutes

1 · Kim Min-Jun

20 · Hong Jeong-Ho

3 · Mo Kyung-bin

11 · Lee Jun-Jae

17 · Kang Hyun-Muk

16 · Park Hyun-Bin

19 · Kim Seong-Ju

98 · E. Dubickas

37 · Kim Joo-Chan

Ansan Greeners

Formation not confirmed

1 Lee Seung-Bin

55 Lee Hyo-jun

25 Cho Ji-Hun

5 Yeon Eung-bin

6 Park Kyu-Min

28 Kim Jung-Hyun

77 Marlon

26 Im Ji-min

2 Jang Hyun-Soo

10 Gabriel Lima

9 M. Chol

Coach · Moon-Sik Choi

Substitutes

21 · D. Kim

4 · Yeon Jei-Min

44 · T. Hartzell

3 · Kang Dong-Hyun

7 · Ryu Seung-Woo

8 · Jeong Hyun-woo

17 · Ryu Seung-Wan

92 · Kim In-Sung

19 · J. Lee

Our number · suwon bluewings winPublished 11 Oct 06:01

66% The market76%

Us66%

~~Market~~76%

We make Suwon Bluewings a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · suwon bluewings win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Suwon Bluewings win	66%	76%	−10
Draw	21%	15%	+5
Ansan Greeners win	13%	8%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	55%	64%	−8
Both teams to score	49%	47%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	33%	43%	−10
Suwon Bluewings or draw	87%	92%	−5
Suwon Bluewings clean sheet	44%	–	–
Ansan Greeners clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.9%

0123450 6.1 4.2 1 11.1 9.7 3.8 2 11.9 9.6 3.9 3 8.2 6.6 2.7 4 4.3 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Suwon Bluewings down, Ansan Greeners across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,374 K League 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 223 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.29 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ansan Greeners away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Suwon Bluewings, 0.81 for Ansan Greeners. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ANS 2–1 SUW · ANS 1–1 SUW · SUW 3–1 ANS · ANS 0–1 SUW

Form · last six in K League 2

SUWON BLUEWINGS

WDWWWW1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

ANSAN GREENERS

LLLWLL1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	25	+19	53
2	Suwon City FC	26	+22	51
3	Seoul E-Land FC	27	+16	51
4	Daegu FC	26	+13	46
5	Hwaseong	27	+13	44
6	Busan I Park	27	+7	42
7	Asan Mugunghwa	26	+3	35
8	Gimpo Citizen	26	0	35
9	Gyeongnam FC	26	0	34
10	Cheongju	27	−8	32
11	Seongnam FC	26	−4	31
12	Paju Citizen	26	−4	30
13	Yongin City	26	−5	27
14	Cheonan City	27	−6	26
15	Jeonnam Dragons	26	−14	24
16	Ansan Greeners	26	−22	22
17	Gimhae City	26	−30	14