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Seongnam FC v Suwon City FC

Seongnam FC
1–2Full time
Suwon City FC

K League 2 · SAT 17 OCT · Tancheon Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 08:31
Seongnam FC 1–2 Suwon City FC SUWON CITY FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Suwon City FC win46%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.433
The market’s Brier score0.418

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Suwon City FC win at 46%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Suwon City FC was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 27–27–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Seongnam FC v Suwon City FC
  4. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Suwon City FC
  5. 37′We published Suwon City FC at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
  6. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Seongnam FC 0–1 Suwon City FC
  7. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Suwon City FC win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
  8. 38′Suwon City FC ahead on 37′ through Han Chan-Hee. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–18–75
  9. 39′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 6–18–75
  10. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Suwon City FC win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Seongnam FC 0–1 Suwon City FC
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Seongnam FC 0–1 Suwon City FC
  13. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Seongnam FC · On: Lee Jeong-Bin · Off: Rodrigo Angelotti
  14. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Seongnam FC · On: Hwang Seok-Ki · Off: Yang Tae-yang
  15. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Suwon City FC · On: Jung Seung-Bae · Off: Kim Do-Yoon
  16. 59′We published Suwon City FC at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
  17. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Seongnam FC · On: Kim Ji-hyuk · Off: Kim Min-jae
  18. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Seongnam FC · On: M. Jeon · Off: Kwon Byeong-jun
  19. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Suwon City FC · On: Goo Bon-Cheul · Off: Han Chan-Hee
  20. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Suwon City FC · On: Ha Jeong-woo · Off: K. Kim
  21. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Suwon City FC
  22. 71′We published Suwon City FC at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  23. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Seongnam FC
  24. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Suwon City FC win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
  25. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Seongnam FC · On: Hong Chang-Beom · Off: Lee Jae-Wook
  26. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Seongnam FC
  27. 79′We published Suwon City FC at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  28. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Suwon City FC · On: Park Cheol-Woo · Off: Choi Gi-Yun
  29. 83′We said Suwon City FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 7–83–10
  30. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Seongnam FC 1–1 Suwon City FC
  31. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Suwon City FC win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
  32. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Suwon City FC win 10%)
  33. 84′A goal for Seongnam FC on 84′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 6–85–9
  34. 85′We said Suwon City FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 6–86–8
  35. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Suwon City FC win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  36. 91′We said Suwon City FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
  37. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Seongnam FC
  38. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Suwon City FC · On: Lee Hyeon-yong · Off: Kim Ji-hun
  39. 95′We published Suwon City FC at 46%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–2 · 0–1–99
  40. 95′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–1–99
  41. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Seongnam FC 1–2 Suwon City FC
  42. 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Suwon City FC win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
  43. 95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Suwon City FC win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
  44. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Seongnam FC
  45. 96′Suwon City FC score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
  46. FTFULL TIME Seongnam FC 1–2 Suwon City FC
  47. FTSeongnam FC 1–2 Suwon City FC · Suwon City FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Suwon City FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Seongnam FC 27%, draw 27%, Suwon City FC 46%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Seongnam FC v Suwon City FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Seongnam FC win27%
Draw27%
Suwon City FC win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueTancheon Stadium

Line-ups

Seongnam FC

Suwon City FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Seongnam FC

Suwon City FC

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 9 Oct · K League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Suwon City FC26+2251
11Seongnam FC26−431

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Seongnam FC

Formation not confirmed

1 Lee Kwang-Yeon

20 Lee Sang-Min

4 Venicio

5 Yu Sun

23 You Ju-An

36 Lee Jae-Wook

14 Elionay

19 Yang Tae-yang

27 Kwon Byeong-jun

18 Kim Min-jae

9 Rodrigo Angelotti

Coach · Han Dong-hoon

Substitutes

28 · Joung Myung-jae

2 · Hwang Seok-Ki

33 · Kim Chan-il

16 · Ryu Jun-sun

35 · Kim Ji-hyuk

8 · Lee Jeong-Bin

17 · Park Byeong-gyu

7 · Hong Chang-Beom

90 · M. Jeon

Suwon City FC

Formation not confirmed

21 Yang Han-Been

25 Jang Young-Woo

6 Kim Ji-hun

3 Derlan

22 Seo Jae-Min

8 Han Chan-Hee

7 Lee Jae-Won

27 S. Lee

29 Choi Gi-Yun

91 Kim Do-Yoon

19 K. Kim

Coach · Kun-Ha Park

Substitutes

13 · Jeong Min-Ki

20 · Lee Ji-Sol

59 · Park Cheol-Woo

5 · Lee Hyeon-yong

10 · Matheus Frizzo

11 · Kim Jeong-Hwan

14 · Goo Bon-Cheul

99 · Ha Jeong-woo

70 · Jung Seung-Bae

Our number · suwon city fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
46% The market47%
Us46%
Market47%

We make Suwon City FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Seongnam FC v Suwon City FC1.09 – 1.51
Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 AugW2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 31 v 5111 v 2
The market · Suwon City FC win47% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Seongnam FC win27%27%0
Draw27%26%+1
Suwon City FC win46%47%−1
Over 2.5 goals48%54%−6
Both teams to score52%57%−5
Over 1.5 goals73%77%−4
Over 3.5 goals26%33%−7
Seongnam FC or draw54%53%+1
Seongnam FC clean sheet23%––
Suwon City FC clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%
0123450 8.2 10.7 8.4 4.3 1 7.7 12.6 9.1 4.6 2 4.5 6.6 4.9 2.5 3 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Seongnam FC down, Suwon City FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.57 of 9
Both scored7 of 9
Last meetingsSUW 0–0 SEO · SEO 1–0 SUW · SUW 2–1 SEO · SEO 2–1 SUW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 Aug

SEONGNAM FC

WDWLDL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–3

SUWON CITY FC

WWDDWW2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Suwon Bluewings26+2256
2Suwon City FC26+2251
3Seoul E-Land FC27+1651
4Daegu FC26+1346
5Hwaseong27+1344
6Busan I Park27+742
7Asan Mugunghwa26+335
8Gimpo Citizen26035
9Gyeongnam FC26034
10Cheongju27−832
11Seongnam FC26−431
12Paju Citizen26−430
13Yongin City26−527
14Cheonan City27−626
15Jeonnam Dragons26−1424
16Ansan Greeners27−2522
17Gimhae City26−3014

The competition's standings before kick-off.