Seongnam FC v Suwon Bluewings prediction · K League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Seongnam FCDrawSuwon Bluewings

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Suwon Bluewings 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Suwon Bluewings are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Seongnam FC 25%, draw 27%, Suwon Bluewings 48%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Seongnam FC v Suwon BluewingsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Seongnam FC win25%

Draw27%

Suwon Bluewings win48%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueTancheon Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Seongnam FC

Suwon Bluewings

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 18 Oct · K League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · suwon bluewings winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 25 Oct 02:22 · locked at kick-off

48% The market57%

Us48%

~~Market~~57%

We make Suwon Bluewings a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Seongnam FC v Suwon Bluewings~~1.03 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 31 v 59~~11 v 1

~~The market · Suwon Bluewings win~~57% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Suwon Bluewings win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Seongnam FC win	25%	19%	+6
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Suwon Bluewings win	48%	57%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	32%	−7
Seongnam FC or draw	52%	43%	+9
Seongnam FC clean sheet	22%	–	–
Suwon Bluewings clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.7 11.4 9.0 4.5 1 7.6 12.7 9.1 4.6 2 4.2 6.2 4.7 2.4 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Seongnam FC down, Suwon Bluewings across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,385 K League 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 234 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Seongnam FC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Suwon Bluewings away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Seongnam FC, 1.51 for Suwon Bluewings. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SUW 1–0 SEO · SUW 2–2 SEO · SEO 1–2 SUW · SUW 3–2 SEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 Aug

SEONGNAM FC

DWLDLL1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

SUWON BLUEWINGS

WWWWWW1–0 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	27	+23	59
2	Suwon City FC	27	+23	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	+20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	+17	52
5	Busan I Park	28	+8	45
6	Hwaseong	28	+12	44
7	Gimpo Citizen	28	+2	38
8	Asan Mugunghwa	27	+3	36
9	Gyeongnam FC	27	0	35
10	Cheongju	28	−10	32
11	Seongnam FC	27	−5	31
12	Paju Citizen	27	−7	30
13	Yongin City	27	−9	27
14	Cheonan City	27	−6	26
15	Ansan Greeners	28	−21	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	−17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	−33	17