Paju Citizen v Hwaseong prediction · K League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Paju CitizenDrawHwaseong

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 07:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Hwaseong 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hwaseong just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Paju Citizen 33%, draw 30%, Hwaseong 37%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Paju Citizen v HwaseongBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Paju Citizen win33%

Draw30%

Hwaseong win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 07:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenuePaju Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paju Citizen

Hwaseong

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 18 Oct · K League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hwaseong	28	+12	44
12	Paju Citizen	27	−7	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hwaseong winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market56%

Us37%

~~Market~~56%

We make Hwaseong a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Paju Citizen v Hwaseong~~1.08 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 30 v 44~~12 v 6

~~The market · Hwaseong win~~56% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hwaseong win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paju Citizen win	33%	20%	+13
Draw	30%	24%	+6
Hwaseong win	37%	56%	−19
Over 2.5 goals	39%	51%	−12
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	66%	74%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	19%	30%	−11
Paju Citizen or draw	63%	44%	+19
Paju Citizen clean sheet	32%	–	–
Hwaseong clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.4 11.7 7.1 2.8 1 10.9 13.8 7.6 3.0 2 6.2 7.1 4.1 3 2.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paju Citizen down, Hwaseong across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,385 K League 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 234 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.11 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paju Citizen at home: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hwaseong away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Paju Citizen, 1.16 for Hwaseong. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HWA 1–2 PAJ · PAJ 0–2 HWA · HWA 2–0 PAJ · PAJ 2–1 HWA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 23 Aug

PAJU CITIZEN

DLDWDL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–4

HWASEONG

WDWDLL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	27	+23	59
2	Suwon City FC	27	+23	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	+20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	+17	52
5	Busan I Park	28	+8	45
6	Hwaseong	28	+12	44
7	Gimpo Citizen	28	+2	38
8	Asan Mugunghwa	27	+3	36
9	Gyeongnam FC	27	0	35
10	Cheongju	28	−10	32
11	Seongnam FC	27	−5	31
12	Paju Citizen	27	−7	30
13	Yongin City	27	−9	27
14	Cheonan City	27	−6	26
15	Ansan Greeners	28	−21	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	−17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	−33	17