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Paju Citizen v Busan I Park

Paju Citizen

1–1Full time

Busan I Park

K League 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Paju Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Paju Citizen 1–1 Busan I Park BUSAN I PARK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Busan I Park win~~37%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.746

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.818

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Busan I Park win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Paju Citizen v Busan I Park
2′Little has changed for our model: Busan I Park 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Paju Citizen
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Paju Citizen
45′HALF-TIME Paju Citizen 0–0 Busan I Park
46′SECOND HALF Paju Citizen 0–0 Busan I Park
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Busan I Park · On: Baek Ga-On · Off: Son Hwi
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Paju Citizen · On: Hong Jeong-un · Off: Kim Hyun-Tae
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Paju Citizen 0–1 Busan I Park
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Paju Citizen · On: Lee Min-Ki · Off: You Jae-jun
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Paju Citizen · On: Lee Min-Ki · Off: You Jae-jun
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Busan I Park
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Busan I Park · On: Park Hye-seong · Off: Kim Se-Hoon
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Busan I Park · On: J. Kim · Off: O. Akhadov
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Paju Citizen · On: J. Bonilla · Off: Kim Min-Ho
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Paju Citizen · On: Ahn June Hyuk · Off: Lee Taek-Geun
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Busan I Park · On: Kim Min-Hyeok · Off: Xavier
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Paju Citizen 1–1 Busan I Park
90′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Busan I Park · On: Cho Dong-Jae · Off: J. Son
FTFULL TIME Paju Citizen 1–1 Busan I Park
FTPaju Citizen 1–1 Busan I Park · Busan I Park win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Paju Citizen win33%

Draw29%

Busan I Park win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · Paju Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Paju Citizen

Formation not confirmed

1 Ryu Won-Woo

34 S. Noh

81 Kim Min-Ho

4 Kim Hyun-Tae

5 Sim Min-Yong

88 Lee Taek-Geun

19 You Jae-jun

8 Choi Bum-Kyung

7 Walterson Silva

18 Lee Jea-Ho

92 B. Baston

Coach · Gerard Nus

Substitutes

13 · Kim Min-seung

22 · Lee Min-Ki

33 · J. Bonilla

6 · Cheon Hyeon-Byung

20 · Hong Jeong-un

70 · Ahn June Hyuk

14 · Seo Dong-Han

40 · L. Amos

10 · Lee Joon-Suk

Busan I Park

Formation not confirmed

1 Koo Sang-Min

55 Kwon Jun-seong

2 O. Akhadov

20 Kim Hee-Seung

11 Ahn Hyun-Beom

97 J. Son

7 Xavier

17 Jeon Seung-Jin

66 Kim Se-Hoon

10 Gabriel Honorio

47 Son Hwi

Coach · Sung-Hwan Cho

Substitutes

34 · Park Ji-Min

4 · J. Kim

6 · Lee Dong-Su

3 · Cho Dong-Jae

21 · Kim Dong-Wook

8 · Kim Min-Hyeok

88 · Park Hye-seong

18 · Baek Ga-On

42 · H. Lee

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Paju Citizen

Formation not confirmed

1 Ryu Won-Woo

34 S. Noh

81 Kim Min-Ho

4 Kim Hyun-Tae

5 Sim Min-Yong

88 Lee Taek-Geun

19 You Jae-jun

8 Choi Bum-Kyung

7 Walterson Silva

18 Lee Jea-Ho

92 B. Baston

Coach · Gerard Nus

Substitutes

13 · Kim Min-seung

22 · Lee Min-Ki

33 · J. Bonilla

6 · Cheon Hyeon-Byung

20 · Hong Jeong-un

70 · Ahn June Hyuk

14 · Seo Dong-Han

40 · L. Amos

10 · Lee Joon-Suk

Busan I Park

Formation not confirmed

1 Koo Sang-Min

55 Kwon Jun-seong

2 O. Akhadov

20 Kim Hee-Seung

11 Ahn Hyun-Beom

97 J. Son

7 Xavier

17 Jeon Seung-Jin

66 Kim Se-Hoon

10 Gabriel Honorio

47 Son Hwi

Coach · Sung-Hwan Cho

Substitutes

34 · Park Ji-Min

4 · J. Kim

6 · Lee Dong-Su

3 · Cho Dong-Jae

21 · Kim Dong-Wook

8 · Kim Min-Hyeok

88 · Park Hye-seong

18 · Baek Ga-On

42 · H. Lee

Our number · busan i park winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

37% The market46%

Us37%

~~Market~~46%

We make Busan I Park a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paju Citizen win	33%	27%	+6
Draw	29%	27%	+3
Busan I Park win	37%	46%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	20%	29%	−9
Paju Citizen or draw	63%	54%	+9
Paju Citizen clean sheet	31%	–	–
Busan I Park clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.9 11.5 7.1 2.8 1 10.7 13.6 7.7 3.1 2 6.2 7.2 4.3 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paju Citizen down, Busan I Park across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,370 K League 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 219 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paju Citizen at home: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Busan I Park away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Paju Citizen, 1.18 for Busan I Park. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BUS 4–1 PAJ

Form · last six in K League 2

PAJU CITIZEN

LWDLDW0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

BUSAN I PARK

DDLLWL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	25	+19	53
2	Suwon City FC	26	+22	51
3	Seoul E-Land FC	27	+16	51
4	Daegu FC	26	+13	46
5	Hwaseong	27	+13	44
6	Busan I Park	26	+7	41
7	Gimpo Citizen	26	0	35
8	Asan Mugunghwa	25	+3	34
9	Gyeongnam FC	25	+1	34
10	Cheongju	27	−8	32
11	Seongnam FC	26	−4	31
12	Paju Citizen	25	−4	29
13	Yongin City	25	−4	27
14	Cheonan City	26	−7	23
15	Ansan Greeners	26	−22	22
16	Jeonnam Dragons	25	−15	21
17	Gimhae City	25	−30	13