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Jeonnam Dragons v Yongin City

Jeonnam Dragons

2–1Full time

Yongin City

K League 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Gwangyang Football Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Jeonnam Dragons 2–1 Yongin City JEONNAM DRAGONS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jeonnam Dragons win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.560

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.645

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jeonnam Dragons win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Jeonnam Dragons was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–36
1′KICK-OFF Jeonnam Dragons v Yongin City
15′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Jeonnam Dragons
40′Jeonnam Dragons find the net on 41′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Jeonnam Dragons 1–0 Yongin City
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' Jeonnam Dragons 1–0 Yongin City
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Jeonnam Dragons win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
45′SECOND HALF Jeonnam Dragons 1–0 Yongin City
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yongin City · On: Jin Tae-Ho · Off: Jardel
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Jeonnam Dragons · On: Hong Seok-Hyun · Off: Yoo Ji-Ha
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Yongin City · On: Choi Chi-Ung · Off: Kim Jin-ho
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Yongin City · On: Choi Chi-Ung · Off: Kim Jin-ho
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Jeonnam Dragons · On: Chu Sang-Hoon · Off: Mirandinha
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Jeonnam Dragons · On: S. Ho · Off: Yoon Min-ho
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Yongin City · On: Yu Dong-Gyu · Off: Suk Hyun-Jun
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Jeonnam Dragons · On: Ha Nam · Off: Jang Yun-Ho
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Jeonnam Dragons · On: T. Jung · Off: Jeong Ji-Yong
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Yongin City · On: Cho Jae-Hun · Off: Lim Chai-Min
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Jeonnam Dragons 2–0 Yongin City · Valdivia
89′⚽ GOAL · 90' Jeonnam Dragons 2–0 Yongin City
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Jeonnam Dragons 1–1 Yongin City · Valdivia
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Jeonnam Dragons 1–1 Yongin City
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Jeonnam Dragons 2–1 Yongin City · Choi Chi-Ung
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Jeonnam Dragons 2–1 Yongin City
100′🟨 YELLOW · 101' Jeonnam Dragons
FTFULL TIME Jeonnam Dragons 2–1 Yongin City
FTJeonnam Dragons 2–1 Yongin City · Jeonnam Dragons win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Jeonnam Dragons win39%

Draw26%

Yongin City win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · Gwangyang Football Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Jeonnam Dragons

Formation not confirmed

1 Choi Bong-Jin

17 Kim Beom-Su

3 J. Kim

2 Yoo Ji-Ha

99 Jeong Kang-min

79 Mirandinha

34 Jang Yun-Ho

8 Park Tae-Yong

11 Jeong Ji-Yong

10 Valdivia

14 Yoon Min-ho

Coach · Kwan-sik Lim

Substitutes

31 · M. Jo

4 · Ku Hyun-Jun

22 · Hong Seok-Hyun

44 · Noh Dong-Geon

24 · Cho Young-Kwang

16 · S. Ho

20 · T. Jung

9 · Ha Nam

32 · Chu Sang-Hoon

Yongin City

Formation not confirmed

31 Roh Hee-Dong

15 Kim Hyeon-jun

4 Kwak Yun-Ho

26 Lim Chai-Min

22 Kim Han-Gil

8 Choi Young-Jun

66 Kim Han-Seo

24 Kim Jin-ho

10 Jardel

27 Kim Bo-Sub

9 Suk Hyun-Jun

Coach · Yun-Kyum Choi

Substitutes

21 · Hwang Seong-Min

5 · Lim Hyeong-Jin

18 · Lee Jae-hyung

44 · Lee Jin-Seop

12 · Cho Jae-Hun

17 · Jin Tae-Ho

90 · Kim Dong-Min

20 · Choi Chi-Ung

19 · Yu Dong-Gyu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Jeonnam Dragons

Formation not confirmed

1 Choi Bong-Jin

17 Kim Beom-Su

3 J. Kim

2 Yoo Ji-Ha

99 Jeong Kang-min

79 Mirandinha

34 Jang Yun-Ho

8 Park Tae-Yong

11 Jeong Ji-Yong

10 Valdivia

14 Yoon Min-ho

Coach · Kwan-sik Lim

Substitutes

31 · M. Jo

4 · Ku Hyun-Jun

22 · Hong Seok-Hyun

44 · Noh Dong-Geon

24 · Cho Young-Kwang

16 · S. Ho

20 · T. Jung

9 · Ha Nam

32 · Chu Sang-Hoon

Yongin City

Formation not confirmed

31 Roh Hee-Dong

15 Kim Hyeon-jun

4 Kwak Yun-Ho

26 Lim Chai-Min

22 Kim Han-Gil

8 Choi Young-Jun

66 Kim Han-Seo

24 Kim Jin-ho

10 Jardel

27 Kim Bo-Sub

9 Suk Hyun-Jun

Coach · Yun-Kyum Choi

Substitutes

21 · Hwang Seong-Min

5 · Lim Hyeong-Jin

18 · Lee Jae-hyung

44 · Lee Jin-Seop

12 · Cho Jae-Hun

17 · Jin Tae-Ho

90 · Kim Dong-Min

20 · Choi Chi-Ung

19 · Yu Dong-Gyu

Our number · jeonnam dragons winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

39% The market35%

Us39%

~~Market~~35%

We make Jeonnam Dragons a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jeonnam Dragons win	39%	35%	+4
Draw	26%	27%	−2
Yongin City win	35%	38%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	55%	51%	+4
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	74%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	30%	+3
Jeonnam Dragons or draw	65%	62%	+3
Jeonnam Dragons clean sheet	25%	–	–
Yongin City clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.1 7.3 5.4 2.6 1 7.8 11.9 8.0 3.8 2 6.1 8.5 5.9 2.8 3 3.1 4.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jeonnam Dragons down, Yongin City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,370 K League 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 219 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jeonnam Dragons at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Yongin City away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Jeonnam Dragons, 1.41 for Yongin City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~YON 2–2 JEO

Form · last six in K League 2

JEONNAM DRAGONS

LWWDDL1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–3

YONGIN CITY

WLWDLD2–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	25	+19	53
2	Suwon City FC	26	+22	51
3	Seoul E-Land FC	27	+16	51
4	Daegu FC	26	+13	46
5	Hwaseong	27	+13	44
6	Busan I Park	26	+7	41
7	Gimpo Citizen	26	0	35
8	Asan Mugunghwa	25	+3	34
9	Gyeongnam FC	25	+1	34
10	Cheongju	27	−8	32
11	Seongnam FC	26	−4	31
12	Paju Citizen	25	−4	29
13	Yongin City	25	−4	27
14	Cheonan City	26	−7	23
15	Ansan Greeners	26	−22	22
16	Jeonnam Dragons	25	−15	21
17	Gimhae City	25	−30	13