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Jeonnam Dragons v Daegu FC

Jeonnam Dragons
2–4Full time
Daegu FC

K League 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Gwangyang Football Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31
Jeonnam Dragons 2–4 Daegu FC DAEGU FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Daegu FC win44%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.470
The market’s Brier score0.279

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Daegu FC win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Daegu FC 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Jeonnam Dragons v Daegu FC
  4. 3′We said Daegu FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 15–17–68
  5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Jeonnam Dragons 0–1 Daegu FC
  6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Daegu FC win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
  7. 4′A goal for Daegu FC on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–17–68
  8. 7′Matheus Serafim scores for Daegu FC on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–17–68
  9. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Jeonnam Dragons 1–1 Daegu FC
  10. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Daegu FC win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
  11. 12′Jeonnam Dragons score on 12′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 32–26–43
  12. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Jeonnam Dragons 1–2 Daegu FC
  13. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Daegu FC win: 44% at kick-off, 69% now
  14. 17′Daegu FC find the net on 17′. 1–2. 1–2 · 13–18–69
  15. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Daegu FC
  16. 20′Daegu FC ahead on 16′ through M. Dackers. 1–2. 1–2 · 13–18–69
  17. 29′We said Daegu FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–2 · 12–19–70
  18. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Daegu FC
  19. 41′We said Daegu FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  20. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Jeonnam Dragons 1–3 Daegu FC
  21. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Daegu FC win: 44% at kick-off, 91% now
  22. 42′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  23. 43′A goal for Daegu FC on 42′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  24. 45′SECOND HALF Jeonnam Dragons 1–3 Daegu FC
  25. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Jeonnam Dragons · On: Jeong Ji-Yong · Off: Jeong Kang-min
  26. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Jeonnam Dragons · On: Ha Nam · Off: Yoo Ji-Ha
  27. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Daegu FC · On: Jang Sung-won · Off: Lee Rim
  28. 54′HALF-TIME Jeonnam Dragons 1–3 Daegu FC
  29. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Daegu FC win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  30. 60′We said Daegu FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
  31. 69′We said Daegu FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 2–3 · 3–17–79
  32. 69′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 3–17–79
  33. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Jeonnam Dragons 2–3 Daegu FC
  34. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Daegu FC win: 44% at kick-off, 79% now
  35. 70′Jeonnam Dragons score on 69′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 3–17–80
  36. 71′We said Daegu FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
  37. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Jeonnam Dragons
  38. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Daegu FC win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  39. 77′We said Daegu FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–3 · 2–14–85
  40. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Daegu FC · On: Han Kook-Young · Off: Ryu Jae-Moon
  41. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Jeonnam Dragons · On: Mirandinha · Off: Yoon Min-ho
  42. 78′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–1–99
  43. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Jeonnam Dragons 2–4 Daegu FC
  44. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Daegu FC win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
  45. 80′Daegu FC find the net on 79′. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–1–99
  46. 84′We said Daegu FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  47. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Daegu FC · On: Hong Jae-Seok · Off: Cesinha
  48. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Daegu FC
  49. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Jeonnam Dragons · On: Noh Dong-Geon · Off: S. Ho
  50. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Jeonnam Dragons · On: I. Bughridze · Off: Park Tae-Yong
  51. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Daegu FC · On: Edgar · Off: M. Dackers
  52. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Daegu FC · On: Park In-Hyeok · Off: Matheus Serafim
  53. FTFULL TIME Jeonnam Dragons 2–4 Daegu FC
  54. FTJeonnam Dragons 2–4 Daegu FC · Daegu FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Daegu FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jeonnam Dragons 32%, draw 24%, Daegu FC 44%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Jeonnam Dragons v Daegu FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Jeonnam Dragons win32%
Draw24%
Daegu FC win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueGwangyang Football Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jeonnam Dragons

Daegu FC

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 17 Oct · K League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Daegu FC27+1549
16Jeonnam Dragons27−1524

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · daegu fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
44% The market57%
Us44%
Market57%

We make Daegu FC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Jeonnam Dragons v Daegu FC1.49 – 1.78
Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 AugW2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 24 v 4916 v 4
The market · Daegu FC win57% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 05:43
Our probability · Daegu FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Jeonnam Dragons win32%21%+11
Draw24%22%+2
Daegu FC win44%57%−13
Over 2.5 goals63%61%+2
Both teams to score64%60%+4
Over 1.5 goals84%81%+3
Over 3.5 goals41%40%+1
Jeonnam Dragons or draw56%43%+13
Jeonnam Dragons clean sheet17%––
Daegu FC clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%
0123450 4.4 6.4 6.0 3.6 1 5.3 10.5 8.8 5.3 2.4 2 4.2 7.4 6.5 3.9 3 2.1 3.7 3.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Jeonnam Dragons down, Daegu FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting4.67
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsDAE 4–2 JEO · DAE 3–4 JEO · JEO 0–1 DAE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 Aug

JEONNAM DRAGONS

WDDLWL1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–2

DAEGU FC

DWDWLW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Suwon Bluewings27+2359
2Suwon City FC27+2354
3Seoul E-Land FC28+2054
4Daegu FC27+1549
5Busan I Park28+845
6Hwaseong28+1244
7Gimpo Citizen27+338
8Asan Mugunghwa27+336
9Gyeongnam FC27035
10Cheongju28−1032
11Seongnam FC27−531
12Paju Citizen27−730
13Yongin City27−927
14Cheonan City27−626
15Ansan Greeners28−2125
16Jeonnam Dragons27−1524
17Gimhae City27−3414

The competition's standings before kick-off.