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Gyeongnam FC v Asan Mugunghwa

Gyeongnam FC
0–0Full time
Asan Mugunghwa

K League 2 · SAT 17 OCT · Changwon Football Centre Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 11:07
Gyeongnam FC 0–0 Asan Mugunghwa ASAN MUGUNGHWA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Asan Mugunghwa win40%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.780
The market’s Brier score0.758

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Asan Mugunghwa win at 40%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Asan Mugunghwa was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Gyeongnam FC v Asan Mugunghwa
  4. 22′Gyeongnam FC score on 22′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 63–23–14
  5. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Gyeongnam FC 1–0 Asan Mugunghwa
  6. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Asan Mugunghwa win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
  7. 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Gyeongnam FC win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Asan Mugunghwa win 14%)
  8. 23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 23' Gyeongnam FC
  9. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Asan Mugunghwa win: 40% at kick-off, 37% now
  10. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Asan Mugunghwa
  11. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Gyeongnam FC win 28%)
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Gyeongnam FC 0–0 Asan Mugunghwa
  13. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Gyeongnam FC · On: Kwon Gi-Pyo · Off: Bae Hyun-Seo
  14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Asan Mugunghwa · On: J. Park · Off: Sin Il-yeon
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Gyeongnam FC 0–0 Asan Mugunghwa
  16. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Asan Mugunghwa win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  17. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Asan Mugunghwa
  18. 55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 24–48–29
  19. 56′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 23–48–28
  20. 64′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 20–55–24
  21. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Asan Mugunghwa win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  22. 72′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 16–65–19
  23. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gyeongnam FC · On: Lee Chan-Dong · Off: Kim Hyeong-Won
  24. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gyeongnam FC · On: Lee Heon-Jae · Off: Cho Sang-Jun
  25. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Gyeongnam FC
  26. 78′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–74–14
  27. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Gyeongnam FC
  28. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Asan Mugunghwa win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  29. 83′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
  30. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Asan Mugunghwa · On: C. Lokolingoy · Off: Han Kyo-Won
  31. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Asan Mugunghwa
  32. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' J. Park · Asan Mugunghwa
  33. 90′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  34. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Asan Mugunghwa · On: Vitinho Lopes · Off: Denisson Silva
  35. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Asan Mugunghwa
  36. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Gyeongnam FC · On: Felipe Fonseca · Off: Kwon Gi-Pyo
  37. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Asan Mugunghwa · On: Park Se-Jik · Off: Choi Chi-Won
  38. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Gyeongnam FC
  39. FTFULL TIME Gyeongnam FC 0–0 Asan Mugunghwa
  40. FTGyeongnam FC 0–0 Asan Mugunghwa · Asan Mugunghwa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Asan Mugunghwa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gyeongnam FC 32%, draw 28%, Asan Mugunghwa 40%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Gyeongnam FC v Asan MugunghwaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gyeongnam FC win32%
Draw28%
Asan Mugunghwa win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueChangwon Football Centre Stadium

Line-ups

Gyeongnam FC

Asan Mugunghwa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gyeongnam FC

Asan Mugunghwa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 10 Oct · K League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Asan Mugunghwa26+335
9Gyeongnam FC26034

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gyeongnam FC

Formation not confirmed

13 Lee Ki-Hyun

27 Son Ho-Jun

39 Lucao

22 Kim Hyeong-Won

26 Choi Jung-Won

2 Bae Hyun-Seo

66 Cho Sang-Jun

77 Kim Ha-min

44 Kim Jung-Hyeon

24 Yun Il-Lok

90 Kim Hyeon-oh

Coach · Sung-jae Bae

Substitutes

31 · Kim Tae-Hoon

30 · Jung Hyun-Wook

29 · A. Karadzic

55 · Jang Seung-woo

6 · Lim Eun-Su

8 · Lee Chan-Dong

23 · Kwon Gi-Pyo

70 · Felipe Fonseca

71 · Lee Heon-Jae

Asan Mugunghwa

Formation not confirmed

18 Shin Song-Hoon

5 J. Byun

33 Kim Hye-seong

3 Lee Ho-In

72 Sin Il-yeon

10 Son Jun-Ho

8 Choi Chi-Won

17 Kim Ju-Sung

7 Han Kyo-Won

9 Kim Jong-Min

11 Denisson Silva

Coach · Andre Gaspar

Substitutes

21 · Kim Jin-Young

6 · Choi Hee-Won

25 · J. Park

20 · Choi Bo-Kyung

24 · Park Se-Jik

14 · Park Seong-Woo

70 · P. Ju-Young

39 · Vitinho Lopes

97 · C. Lokolingoy

Our number · asan mugunghwa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
40% The market39%
Us40%
Market39%

We make Asan Mugunghwa a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Gyeongnam FC v Asan Mugunghwa1.15 – 1.33
Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 15 AugW2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 34 v 359 v 7
The market · Asan Mugunghwa win39% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 08:11
Our probability · Asan Mugunghwa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Gyeongnam FC win32%32%0
Draw28%29%−1
Asan Mugunghwa win40%39%+1
Over 2.5 goals45%47%−2
Both teams to score50%53%−3
Over 1.5 goals71%71%0
Over 3.5 goals24%27%−3
Gyeongnam FC or draw60%61%−1
Gyeongnam FC clean sheet27%––
Asan Mugunghwa clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 9.1 10.6 7.4 3.3 1 9.1 13.2 8.4 3.7 2 5.6 7.3 4.8 2.1 3 2.1 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Gyeongnam FC down, Asan Mugunghwa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.90
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsASA 1–1 GYE · ASA 1–0 GYE · ASA 2–2 GYE · GYE 1–3 ASA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 15 Aug

GYEONGNAM FC

DDWWDL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

ASAN MUGUNGHWA

LWLLWD0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Suwon Bluewings26+2256
2Suwon City FC26+2251
3Seoul E-Land FC27+1651
4Daegu FC26+1346
5Hwaseong27+1344
6Busan I Park27+742
7Asan Mugunghwa26+335
8Gimpo Citizen26035
9Gyeongnam FC26034
10Cheongju27−832
11Seongnam FC26−431
12Paju Citizen26−430
13Yongin City26−527
14Cheonan City27−626
15Jeonnam Dragons26−1424
16Ansan Greeners27−2522
17Gimhae City26−3014

The competition's standings before kick-off.