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Gyeongnam FC v Asan Mugunghwa
Gyeongnam FC
Asan MugunghwaK League 2 · SAT 17 OCT · Changwon Football Centre Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Asan Mugunghwa win at 40%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Asan Mugunghwa was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
- 1′KICK-OFF Gyeongnam FC v Asan Mugunghwa
- 22′Gyeongnam FC score on 22′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 63–23–14
- 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Gyeongnam FC 1–0 Asan Mugunghwa
- 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Asan Mugunghwa win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
- 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Gyeongnam FC win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Asan Mugunghwa win 14%)
- 23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 23' Gyeongnam FC
- 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Asan Mugunghwa win: 40% at kick-off, 37% now
- 30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Asan Mugunghwa
- 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Gyeongnam FC win 28%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Gyeongnam FC 0–0 Asan Mugunghwa
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Gyeongnam FC · On: Kwon Gi-Pyo · Off: Bae Hyun-Seo
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Asan Mugunghwa · On: J. Park · Off: Sin Il-yeon
- 46′SECOND HALF Gyeongnam FC 0–0 Asan Mugunghwa
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Asan Mugunghwa win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
- 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Asan Mugunghwa
- 55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 24–48–29
- 56′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 23–48–28
- 64′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 20–55–24
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Asan Mugunghwa win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
- 72′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 16–65–19
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gyeongnam FC · On: Lee Chan-Dong · Off: Kim Hyeong-Won
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gyeongnam FC · On: Lee Heon-Jae · Off: Cho Sang-Jun
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Gyeongnam FC
- 78′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–74–14
- 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Gyeongnam FC
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Asan Mugunghwa win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
- 83′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Asan Mugunghwa · On: C. Lokolingoy · Off: Han Kyo-Won
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Asan Mugunghwa
- 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' J. Park · Asan Mugunghwa
- 90′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
- 92′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Asan Mugunghwa · On: Vitinho Lopes · Off: Denisson Silva
- 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Asan Mugunghwa
- 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Gyeongnam FC · On: Felipe Fonseca · Off: Kwon Gi-Pyo
- 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Asan Mugunghwa · On: Park Se-Jik · Off: Choi Chi-Won
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Gyeongnam FC
- FTFULL TIME Gyeongnam FC 0–0 Asan Mugunghwa
- FTGyeongnam FC 0–0 Asan Mugunghwa · Asan Mugunghwa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassAsan Mugunghwa are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Gyeongnam FC 32%, draw 28%, Asan Mugunghwa 40%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Gyeongnam FC win32%
Asan Mugunghwa win40%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 08:30
RoundMatchday 29
VenueChangwon Football Centre Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Gyeongnam FCMIN
Asan MugunghwaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Gyeongnam FC
Asan Mugunghwa
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Gyeongnam FC
Asan Mugunghwa
Last match: 10 Oct · K League 2
Last match: 10 Oct · K League 2
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Gyeongnam FC
Formation not confirmed
13 Lee Ki-Hyun
27 Son Ho-Jun
39 Lucao
22 Kim Hyeong-Won
26 Choi Jung-Won
2 Bae Hyun-Seo
66 Cho Sang-Jun
77 Kim Ha-min
44 Kim Jung-Hyeon
24 Yun Il-Lok
90 Kim Hyeon-oh
Coach · Sung-jae Bae
Substitutes
31 · Kim Tae-Hoon
30 · Jung Hyun-Wook
29 · A. Karadzic
55 · Jang Seung-woo
6 · Lim Eun-Su
8 · Lee Chan-Dong
23 · Kwon Gi-Pyo
70 · Felipe Fonseca
71 · Lee Heon-Jae
Asan Mugunghwa
Formation not confirmed
18 Shin Song-Hoon
5 J. Byun
33 Kim Hye-seong
3 Lee Ho-In
72 Sin Il-yeon
10 Son Jun-Ho
8 Choi Chi-Won
17 Kim Ju-Sung
7 Han Kyo-Won
9 Kim Jong-Min
11 Denisson Silva
Coach · Andre Gaspar
Substitutes
21 · Kim Jin-Young
6 · Choi Hee-Won
25 · J. Park
20 · Choi Bo-Kyung
24 · Park Se-Jik
14 · Park Seong-Woo
70 · P. Ju-Young
39 · Vitinho Lopes
97 · C. Lokolingoy
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Gyeongnam FC
Formation not confirmed
13 Lee Ki-Hyun
27 Son Ho-Jun
39 Lucao
22 Kim Hyeong-Won
26 Choi Jung-Won
2 Bae Hyun-Seo
66 Cho Sang-Jun
77 Kim Ha-min
44 Kim Jung-Hyeon
24 Yun Il-Lok
90 Kim Hyeon-oh
Coach · Sung-jae Bae
Substitutes
31 · Kim Tae-Hoon
30 · Jung Hyun-Wook
29 · A. Karadzic
55 · Jang Seung-woo
6 · Lim Eun-Su
8 · Lee Chan-Dong
23 · Kwon Gi-Pyo
70 · Felipe Fonseca
71 · Lee Heon-Jae
Asan Mugunghwa
Formation not confirmed
18 Shin Song-Hoon
5 J. Byun
33 Kim Hye-seong
3 Lee Ho-In
72 Sin Il-yeon
10 Son Jun-Ho
8 Choi Chi-Won
17 Kim Ju-Sung
7 Han Kyo-Won
9 Kim Jong-Min
11 Denisson Silva
Coach · Andre Gaspar
Substitutes
21 · Kim Jin-Young
6 · Choi Hee-Won
25 · J. Park
20 · Choi Bo-Kyung
24 · Park Se-Jik
14 · Park Seong-Woo
70 · P. Ju-Young
39 · Vitinho Lopes
97 · C. Lokolingoy
We make Asan Mugunghwa a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gyeongnam FC win | 32% | 32% | 0 |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | −1 |
| Asan Mugunghwa win | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 27% | −3 |
| Gyeongnam FC or draw | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Gyeongnam FC clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Asan Mugunghwa clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 15 Aug
GYEONGNAM FC
ASAN MUGUNGHWA
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 26 | +22 | 56 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 26 | +22 | 51 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land FC | 27 | +16 | 51 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 26 | +13 | 46 |
| 5 | Hwaseong | 27 | +13 | 44 |
| 6 | Busan I Park | 27 | +7 | 42 |
| 7 | Asan Mugunghwa | 26 | +3 | 35 |
| 8 | Gimpo Citizen | 26 | 0 | 35 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 26 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | Cheongju | 27 | −8 | 32 |
| 11 | Seongnam FC | 26 | −4 | 31 |
| 12 | Paju Citizen | 26 | −4 | 30 |
| 13 | Yongin City | 26 | −5 | 27 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 27 | −6 | 26 |
| 15 | Jeonnam Dragons | 26 | −14 | 24 |
| 16 | Ansan Greeners | 27 | −25 | 22 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 26 | −30 | 14 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Suwon Bluewings
Suwon City FC
Seoul E-Land FC
Daegu FC
Hwaseong
Busan I Park
Gimpo Citizen
Cheongju
Seongnam FC
Paju Citizen
Yongin City
Cheonan City
Jeonnam Dragons
Ansan Greeners
Gimhae City