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Gimpo Citizen v Paju Citizen
Gimpo Citizen
Paju CitizenK League 2 · SAT 17 OCT · Gimpo Salter Soccer Field
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Gimpo Citizen win at 40%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Gimpo Citizen 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–29
- 1′KICK-OFF Gimpo Citizen v Paju Citizen
- 30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Gimpo Citizen win 34%)
- 37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Gimpo Citizen
- 39′A goal for Paju Citizen on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
- 39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Gimpo Citizen 0–1 Paju Citizen
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Gimpo Citizen win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
- 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Paju Citizen win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
- 40′We said Gimpo Citizen at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
- 41′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 8–23–68
- 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Gimpo Citizen 1–1 Paju Citizen
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Gimpo Citizen win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
- 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Paju Citizen win 24%)
- 42′Gimpo Citizen score on 42′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 31–44–24
- 45′SECOND HALF Gimpo Citizen 1–1 Paju Citizen
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gimpo Citizen · On: Jang Bu-seong · Off: M. Kim
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gimpo Citizen · On: Lee Chan-hyung · Off: Lee Yong-Hyeok
- 49′HALF-TIME Gimpo Citizen 1–1 Paju Citizen
- 51′We said Gimpo Citizen at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–50–22
- 58′We said Gimpo Citizen at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
- 58′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 80–17–3
- 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Gimpo Citizen 2–1 Paju Citizen
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Gimpo Citizen win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
- 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Gimpo Citizen win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
- 59′Gimpo Citizen find the net on 58′. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–17–3
- 67′We said Gimpo Citizen at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Gimpo Citizen 3–1 Paju Citizen
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Gimpo Citizen win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
- 68′A goal for Gimpo Citizen on 68′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 69′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–1–0
- 71′Kim Sung-Joon scores for Gimpo Citizen on 67′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Paju Citizen · On: You Jae-jun · Off: L. Amos
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Paju Citizen · On: Kim Hyun-Tae · Off: Hong Jeong-un
- 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Paju Citizen
- 80′We said Gimpo Citizen at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Gimpo Citizen · On: Djalma · Off: Kim Sung-Joon
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Gimpo Citizen win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Paju Citizen · On: Lee Min-Ki · Off: Lee Taek-Geun
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Gimpo Citizen · On: Kim Do-Hyeok · Off: Park Sang-hyoun
- 81′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Gimpo Citizen 4–1 Paju Citizen
- 82′Gimpo Citizen score on 82′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Paju Citizen · On: Ahn June Hyuk · Off: Lee Joon-Suk
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Paju Citizen · On: Walterson Silva · Off: Choi Bum-Kyung
- 91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gimpo Citizen · On: Kim Min-Seog · Off: Lee Si-Heon
- FTFULL TIME Gimpo Citizen 4–1 Paju Citizen
- FTGimpo Citizen 4–1 Paju Citizen · Gimpo Citizen win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassGimpo Citizen are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Gimpo Citizen 40%, draw 31%, Paju Citizen 29%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Gimpo Citizen win40%
Paju Citizen win29%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 08:30
RoundMatchday 29
VenueGimpo Salter Soccer Field
Match timeline
All events
Gimpo CitizenMIN
Paju CitizenEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Gimpo Citizen
Paju Citizen
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Gimpo Citizen
Paju Citizen
Last match: 9 Oct · K League 2
Last match: 10 Oct · K League 2
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Gimpo Citizen
Formation not confirmed
31 Son Jeong-Hyeon
3 Park Kyung-Rok
47 Kim Dong-Min
44 Lee Yong-Hyeok
17 C. Lim
13 Park Sang-hyoun
16 Kim Sung-Joon
23 M. Kim
11 Lee Si-Heon
50 Park Dong-Jin
96 Paulo Henrique
Coach · Jeong-woon Ko
Substitutes
1 · Lee Sang-min
14 · Lee Hak-Min
66 · Park Byung-Hyun
5 · Lee Chan-hyung
32 · Jang Bu-seong
7 · Kim Do-Hyeok
8 · Djalma
20 · Kim Min-Seog
40 · Nam Hyeon-u
Paju Citizen
Formation not confirmed
1 Ryu Won-Woo
34 S. Noh
81 Kim Min-Ho
20 Hong Jeong-un
5 Sim Min-Yong
88 Lee Taek-Geun
40 L. Amos
8 Choi Bum-Kyung
10 Lee Joon-Suk
18 Lee Jea-Ho
92 B. Baston
Coach · Gerard Nus
Substitutes
13 · Kim Min-seung
4 · Kim Hyun-Tae
22 · Lee Min-Ki
33 · J. Bonilla
6 · Cheon Hyeon-Byung
70 · Ahn June Hyuk
19 · You Jae-jun
7 · Walterson Silva
17 · S. Park
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Gimpo Citizen
Formation not confirmed
31 Son Jeong-Hyeon
3 Park Kyung-Rok
47 Kim Dong-Min
44 Lee Yong-Hyeok
17 C. Lim
13 Park Sang-hyoun
16 Kim Sung-Joon
23 M. Kim
11 Lee Si-Heon
50 Park Dong-Jin
96 Paulo Henrique
Coach · Jeong-woon Ko
Substitutes
1 · Lee Sang-min
14 · Lee Hak-Min
66 · Park Byung-Hyun
5 · Lee Chan-hyung
32 · Jang Bu-seong
7 · Kim Do-Hyeok
8 · Djalma
20 · Kim Min-Seog
40 · Nam Hyeon-u
Paju Citizen
Formation not confirmed
1 Ryu Won-Woo
34 S. Noh
81 Kim Min-Ho
20 Hong Jeong-un
5 Sim Min-Yong
88 Lee Taek-Geun
40 L. Amos
8 Choi Bum-Kyung
10 Lee Joon-Suk
18 Lee Jea-Ho
92 B. Baston
Coach · Gerard Nus
Substitutes
13 · Kim Min-seung
4 · Kim Hyun-Tae
22 · Lee Min-Ki
33 · J. Bonilla
6 · Cheon Hyeon-Byung
70 · Ahn June Hyuk
19 · You Jae-jun
7 · Walterson Silva
17 · S. Park
We make Gimpo Citizen a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimpo Citizen win | 40% | 53% | −13 |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | +5 |
| Paju Citizen win | 29% | 21% | +8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 45% | −11 |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 49% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% | 70% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 25% | −10 |
| Gimpo Citizen or draw | 71% | 79% | −8 |
| Gimpo Citizen clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
| Paju Citizen clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 16 Aug
GIMPO CITIZEN
PAJU CITIZEN
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 26 | +22 | 56 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 26 | +22 | 51 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land FC | 27 | +16 | 51 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 26 | +13 | 46 |
| 5 | Hwaseong | 27 | +13 | 44 |
| 6 | Busan I Park | 27 | +7 | 42 |
| 7 | Asan Mugunghwa | 26 | +3 | 35 |
| 8 | Gimpo Citizen | 26 | 0 | 35 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 26 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | Cheongju | 27 | −8 | 32 |
| 11 | Seongnam FC | 26 | −4 | 31 |
| 12 | Paju Citizen | 26 | −4 | 30 |
| 13 | Yongin City | 26 | −5 | 27 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 27 | −6 | 26 |
| 15 | Jeonnam Dragons | 26 | −14 | 24 |
| 16 | Ansan Greeners | 27 | −25 | 22 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 26 | −30 | 14 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Suwon Bluewings
Suwon City FC
Seoul E-Land FC
Daegu FC
Hwaseong
Busan I Park
Asan Mugunghwa
Gyeongnam FC
Cheongju
Seongnam FC
Yongin City
Cheonan City
Jeonnam Dragons
Ansan Greeners
Gimhae City