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Gimpo Citizen v Paju Citizen

Gimpo Citizen
4–1Full time
Paju Citizen

K League 2 · SAT 17 OCT · Gimpo Salter Soccer Field

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 11:07
Gimpo Citizen 4–1 Paju Citizen GIMPO CITIZEN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Gimpo Citizen win40%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.548
The market’s Brier score0.336

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gimpo Citizen win at 40%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Gimpo Citizen 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Gimpo Citizen v Paju Citizen
  4. 30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Gimpo Citizen win 34%)
  5. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Gimpo Citizen
  6. 39′A goal for Paju Citizen on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
  7. 39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Gimpo Citizen 0–1 Paju Citizen
  8. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Gimpo Citizen win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
  9. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Paju Citizen win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
  10. 40′We said Gimpo Citizen at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
  11. 41′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 8–23–68
  12. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Gimpo Citizen 1–1 Paju Citizen
  13. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Gimpo Citizen win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
  14. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Paju Citizen win 24%)
  15. 42′Gimpo Citizen score on 42′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 31–44–24
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Gimpo Citizen 1–1 Paju Citizen
  17. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gimpo Citizen · On: Jang Bu-seong · Off: M. Kim
  18. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gimpo Citizen · On: Lee Chan-hyung · Off: Lee Yong-Hyeok
  19. 49′HALF-TIME Gimpo Citizen 1–1 Paju Citizen
  20. 51′We said Gimpo Citizen at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–50–22
  21. 58′We said Gimpo Citizen at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  22. 58′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  23. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Gimpo Citizen 2–1 Paju Citizen
  24. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Gimpo Citizen win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
  25. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Gimpo Citizen win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
  26. 59′Gimpo Citizen find the net on 58′. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  27. 67′We said Gimpo Citizen at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  28. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Gimpo Citizen 3–1 Paju Citizen
  29. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Gimpo Citizen win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
  30. 68′A goal for Gimpo Citizen on 68′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  31. 69′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–1–0
  32. 71′Kim Sung-Joon scores for Gimpo Citizen on 67′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  33. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Paju Citizen · On: You Jae-jun · Off: L. Amos
  34. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Paju Citizen · On: Kim Hyun-Tae · Off: Hong Jeong-un
  35. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Paju Citizen
  36. 80′We said Gimpo Citizen at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Gimpo Citizen · On: Djalma · Off: Kim Sung-Joon
  38. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Gimpo Citizen win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
  39. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Paju Citizen · On: Lee Min-Ki · Off: Lee Taek-Geun
  40. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Gimpo Citizen · On: Kim Do-Hyeok · Off: Park Sang-hyoun
  41. 81′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  42. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Gimpo Citizen 4–1 Paju Citizen
  43. 82′Gimpo Citizen score on 82′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  44. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Paju Citizen · On: Ahn June Hyuk · Off: Lee Joon-Suk
  45. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Paju Citizen · On: Walterson Silva · Off: Choi Bum-Kyung
  46. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gimpo Citizen · On: Kim Min-Seog · Off: Lee Si-Heon
  47. FTFULL TIME Gimpo Citizen 4–1 Paju Citizen
  48. FTGimpo Citizen 4–1 Paju Citizen · Gimpo Citizen win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gimpo Citizen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimpo Citizen 40%, draw 31%, Paju Citizen 29%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Gimpo Citizen v Paju CitizenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gimpo Citizen win40%
Draw31%
Paju Citizen win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueGimpo Salter Soccer Field

Line-ups

Gimpo Citizen

Paju Citizen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimpo Citizen

Paju Citizen

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 10 Oct · K League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Gimpo Citizen26035
12Paju Citizen26−430

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gimpo Citizen

Formation not confirmed

31 Son Jeong-Hyeon

3 Park Kyung-Rok

47 Kim Dong-Min

44 Lee Yong-Hyeok

17 C. Lim

13 Park Sang-hyoun

16 Kim Sung-Joon

23 M. Kim

11 Lee Si-Heon

50 Park Dong-Jin

96 Paulo Henrique

Coach · Jeong-woon Ko

Substitutes

1 · Lee Sang-min

14 · Lee Hak-Min

66 · Park Byung-Hyun

5 · Lee Chan-hyung

32 · Jang Bu-seong

7 · Kim Do-Hyeok

8 · Djalma

20 · Kim Min-Seog

40 · Nam Hyeon-u

Paju Citizen

Formation not confirmed

1 Ryu Won-Woo

34 S. Noh

81 Kim Min-Ho

20 Hong Jeong-un

5 Sim Min-Yong

88 Lee Taek-Geun

40 L. Amos

8 Choi Bum-Kyung

10 Lee Joon-Suk

18 Lee Jea-Ho

92 B. Baston

Coach · Gerard Nus

Substitutes

13 · Kim Min-seung

4 · Kim Hyun-Tae

22 · Lee Min-Ki

33 · J. Bonilla

6 · Cheon Hyeon-Byung

70 · Ahn June Hyuk

19 · You Jae-jun

7 · Walterson Silva

17 · S. Park

Our number · gimpo citizen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
40% The market53%
Us40%
Market53%

We make Gimpo Citizen a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Gimpo Citizen v Paju Citizen1.13 – 0.93
Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 16 AugW1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 35 v 308 v 12
The market · Gimpo Citizen win53% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Gimpo Citizen win40%53%−13
Draw31%26%+5
Paju Citizen win29%21%+8
Over 2.5 goals34%45%−11
Both teams to score41%49%−8
Over 1.5 goals61%70%−9
Over 3.5 goals15%25%−10
Gimpo Citizen or draw71%79%−8
Gimpo Citizen clean sheet40%––
Paju Citizen clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%
0123450 13.6 11.3 5.5 1 13.9 13.8 6.1 2 8.1 7.4 3.5 3 3.1 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Gimpo Citizen down, Paju Citizen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsPAJ 0–1 GIM · GIM 3–1 PAJ · PAJ 0–1 GIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 16 Aug

GIMPO CITIZEN

DLLDWL1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

PAJU CITIZEN

WDLDWD2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Suwon Bluewings26+2256
2Suwon City FC26+2251
3Seoul E-Land FC27+1651
4Daegu FC26+1346
5Hwaseong27+1344
6Busan I Park27+742
7Asan Mugunghwa26+335
8Gimpo Citizen26035
9Gyeongnam FC26034
10Cheongju27−832
11Seongnam FC26−431
12Paju Citizen26−430
13Yongin City26−527
14Cheonan City27−626
15Jeonnam Dragons26−1424
16Ansan Greeners27−2522
17Gimhae City26−3014

The competition's standings before kick-off.