Home › Football › K League 2 › Gimpo Citizen v Gimhae City

Gimpo Citizen v Gimhae City

Gimpo Citizen

1–2Full time

Gimhae City

K League 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Gimpo Salter Soccer Field

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:02

Gimpo Citizen 1–2 Gimhae City GIMPO CITIZEN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gimpo Citizen win~~56%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.040

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.986

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimpo Citizen win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gimpo Citizen was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
1′KICK-OFF Gimpo Citizen v Gimhae City
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Gimhae City
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Gimpo Citizen
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Gimhae City
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Gimpo Citizen win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
42′We said Gimpo Citizen at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–37–18
45′SECOND HALF Gimpo Citizen 0–0 Gimhae City
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gimpo Citizen · On: Djalma · Off: Park Sang-hyoun
48′HALF-TIME Gimpo Citizen 0–0 Gimhae City
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gimhae City · On: Choi Won-Chul · Off: Miguel Baggio
53′We said Gimpo Citizen at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–17
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Gimpo Citizen win 41%)
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 38–46–16
56′We said Gimpo Citizen at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–27–63
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Gimpo Citizen 0–1 Gimhae City
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Gimpo Citizen win: 56% at kick-off, 11% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Gimhae City win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 46%)
57′Gimhae City score on 57′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–27–63
58′56′: B. Mikeltadze on the scoresheet for Gimhae City, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–26–64
59′We said Gimpo Citizen at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–64
60′We said Gimpo Citizen at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Gimpo Citizen · On: Kim Jun-seo · Off: Lee Si-Heon
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Gimpo Citizen 0–2 Gimhae City
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Gimpo Citizen win: 56% at kick-off, 2% now
61′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–2 · 1–7–92
62′Gimhae City ahead on 60′ through B. Mikeltadze. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–7–92
63′Gimhae City ahead on 61′ through B. Mikeltadze. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–92
64′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 7–25–68
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gimhae City · On: Gwak Seong-Uk · Off: Sung Ho-Yeung
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Gimpo Citizen 1–2 Gimhae City
65′A goal for Gimpo Citizen on 65′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 7–24–69
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Gimpo Citizen · On: Kim Do-Hyeok · Off: Kim Min-Seog
66′Djalma scores for Gimpo Citizen on 64′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–24–70
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Gimpo Citizen
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Gimhae City
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gimhae City · On: J. Woo · Off: B. Mikeltadze
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Gimpo Citizen · On: M. Kim · Off: Jang Bu-seong
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Gimpo Citizen · On: Lee Hak-Min · Off: C. Lim
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Gimhae City · On: Lee Kang-Uk · Off: Lee Seung-Jae
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Gimhae City · On: Hong Uk-Hyeon · Off: Park Sang-Jun
95′Full time, 1–2. We called Gimpo Citizen at 56% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Gimpo Citizen 1–2 Gimhae City
FTGimpo Citizen 1–2 Gimhae City · Gimpo Citizen win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gimpo Citizen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimpo Citizen 56%, draw 25%, Gimhae City 19%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Gimpo Citizen v Gimhae CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gimpo Citizen win56%

Draw25%

Gimhae City win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueGimpo Salter Soccer Field

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimpo Citizen

Gimhae City

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 18 Oct · K League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Gimpo Citizen	27	+3	38
17	Gimhae City	27	−34	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gimpo citizen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

56% The market54%

Us56%

~~Market~~54%

We make Gimpo Citizen a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gimpo Citizen v Gimhae City~~1.71 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 38 v 14~~7 v 17

~~The market · Gimpo Citizen win~~54% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gimpo Citizen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimpo Citizen win	56%	54%	+2
Draw	25%	25%	0
Gimhae City win	19%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
Gimpo Citizen or draw	81%	79%	+2
Gimpo Citizen clean sheet	42%	–	–
Gimhae City clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 8.2 6.1 2.9 1 12.3 11.7 4.9 2 10.9 9.5 4.2 3 6.3 5.4 2.4 4 2.7 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimpo Citizen down, Gimhae City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,383 K League 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 232 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimpo Citizen at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Gimhae City away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Gimpo Citizen, 0.88 for Gimhae City. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~Gimhae City 1–2 Gimpo Citizen · Gimhae City 1–1 Gimpo Citizen · Gimpo Citizen 1–2 Gimhae City

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 29 Aug

GIMPO CITIZEN

LLDWLW1–4 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 4–1

GIMHAE CITY

LDLLDL0–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–6

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	27	+23	59
2	Suwon City FC	27	+23	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	+20	54
4	Daegu FC	27	+15	49
5	Busan I Park	28	+8	45
6	Hwaseong	28	+12	44
7	Gimpo Citizen	27	+3	38
8	Asan Mugunghwa	27	+3	36
9	Gyeongnam FC	27	0	35
10	Cheongju	28	−10	32
11	Seongnam FC	27	−5	31
12	Paju Citizen	27	−7	30
13	Yongin City	27	−9	27
14	Cheonan City	27	−6	26
15	Ansan Greeners	28	−21	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	27	−15	24
17	Gimhae City	27	−34	14