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Gimhae City v Asan Mugunghwa

Gimhae City

1–1Full time

Asan Mugunghwa

K League 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Gimhae Sports Complex

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 11:12

Gimhae City 1–1 Asan Mugunghwa ASAN MUGUNGHWA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Asan Mugunghwa win~~50%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.857

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Asan Mugunghwa win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Asan Mugunghwa 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 24–25–50
1′KICK-OFF Gimhae City v Asan Mugunghwa
4′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Gimhae City
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Gimhae City 1–0 Asan Mugunghwa
22′Gimhae City ahead on 17′ through Gwak Seong-Uk. 1–0. 1–0 · 54–26–21
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Asan Mugunghwa win: 50% at kick-off, 21% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Gimhae City win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Asan Mugunghwa win 21%)
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Gimhae City
30′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 56–26–18
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Asan Mugunghwa win: 50% at kick-off, 18% now
45′We said Asan Mugunghwa at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 61–26–13
45′HALF-TIME Gimhae City 1–0 Asan Mugunghwa
46′SECOND HALF Gimhae City 1–0 Asan Mugunghwa
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Asan Mugunghwa · On: S. Jung · Off: Jang Jun-Yeong
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Asan Mugunghwa · On: J. Park · Off: Sin Il-yeon
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Asan Mugunghwa · On: Kim Jong-Min · Off: Kim Young-Nam
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Gimhae City · On: Lee Jun-Gyu · Off: Lee Seung-Jae
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Gimhae City 1–1 Asan Mugunghwa
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Asan Mugunghwa · On: Park Seong-Woo · Off: Kim Ju-Sung
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Gimhae City · On: Park Sang-Jun · Off: Sung Ho-Yeung
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Gimhae City · On: Park Yo-Han · Off: Choi Won-Chul
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Gimhae City · On: Park Yo-Han · Off: Choi Won-Chul
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Gimhae City · On: R. Macedo · Off: Lee Kang-Uk
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Asan Mugunghwa · On: P. Ju-Young · Off: C. Lokolingoy
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Gimhae City 2–1 Asan Mugunghwa
FTFULL TIME Gimhae City 1–1 Asan Mugunghwa
FTGimhae City 1–1 Asan Mugunghwa · Asan Mugunghwa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gimhae City win24%

Draw26%

Asan Mugunghwa win50%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 08:30

Venue · Gimhae Sports Complex

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Gimhae City

Formation not confirmed

91 Choe Pil-Soo

14 Pyo Geon-Hee

5 J. Yeo

29 Hong Uk-Hyeon

17 Y. Lee

11 Lee Kang-Uk

16 Choi Won-Chul

34 Gwak Seong-Uk

23 Sung Ho-Yeung

94 J. Woo

7 Lee Seung-Jae

Coach · Myeong-seong Choi

Substitutes

1 · Jeong Jin-Wook

77 · Yoon Byung-Kwon

6 · Choi Jun-Yeong

41 · Park Yo-Han

3 · Lee Seul-Chan

27 · Lee Jun-Gyu

22 · Park Sang-Jun

30 · H. Seol

96 · R. Macedo

Asan Mugunghwa

Formation not confirmed

18 Shin Song-Hoon

5 J. Byun

33 Kim Hye-seong

55 Jang Jun-Yeong

72 Sin Il-yeon

10 Son Jun-Ho

13 Kim Young-Nam

11 Denisson Silva

17 Kim Ju-Sung

7 Han Kyo-Won

97 C. Lokolingoy

Coach · Andre Gaspar

Substitutes

21 · Kim Jin-Young

3 · Lee Ho-In

25 · J. Park

20 · Choi Bo-Kyung

8 · Choi Chi-Won

14 · Park Seong-Woo

88 · S. Jung

70 · P. Ju-Young

9 · Kim Jong-Min

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gimhae City

Formation not confirmed

91 Choe Pil-Soo

14 Pyo Geon-Hee

5 J. Yeo

29 Hong Uk-Hyeon

17 Y. Lee

11 Lee Kang-Uk

16 Choi Won-Chul

34 Gwak Seong-Uk

23 Sung Ho-Yeung

94 J. Woo

7 Lee Seung-Jae

Coach · Myeong-seong Choi

Substitutes

1 · Jeong Jin-Wook

77 · Yoon Byung-Kwon

6 · Choi Jun-Yeong

41 · Park Yo-Han

3 · Lee Seul-Chan

27 · Lee Jun-Gyu

22 · Park Sang-Jun

30 · H. Seol

96 · R. Macedo

Asan Mugunghwa

Formation not confirmed

18 Shin Song-Hoon

5 J. Byun

33 Kim Hye-seong

55 Jang Jun-Yeong

72 Sin Il-yeon

10 Son Jun-Ho

13 Kim Young-Nam

11 Denisson Silva

17 Kim Ju-Sung

7 Han Kyo-Won

97 C. Lokolingoy

Coach · Andre Gaspar

Substitutes

21 · Kim Jin-Young

3 · Lee Ho-In

25 · J. Park

20 · Choi Bo-Kyung

8 · Choi Chi-Won

14 · Park Seong-Woo

88 · S. Jung

70 · P. Ju-Young

9 · Kim Jong-Min

Our number · asan mugunghwa winPublished 10 Oct 08:34

50% The market46%

Us50%

~~Market~~46%

We make Asan Mugunghwa a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimhae City win	24%	27%	−3
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Asan Mugunghwa win	50%	46%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	28%	−1
Gimhae City or draw	50%	54%	−4
Gimhae City clean sheet	21%	–	–
Asan Mugunghwa clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.8 11.0 9.2 4.9 2.0 1 7.0 12.2 9.3 5.0 2.0 2 3.9 6.1 4.8 2.6 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimhae City down, Asan Mugunghwa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,370 K League 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 219 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimhae City at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Asan Mugunghwa away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Gimhae City, 1.60 for Asan Mugunghwa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ASA 1–1 GIM

Form · last six in K League 2

GIMHAE CITY

DLLDLL1–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2

ASAN MUGUNGHWA

DLWLLW1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	25	+19	53
2	Suwon City FC	26	+22	51
3	Seoul E-Land FC	27	+16	51
4	Daegu FC	26	+13	46
5	Hwaseong	27	+13	44
6	Busan I Park	26	+7	41
7	Gimpo Citizen	26	0	35
8	Asan Mugunghwa	25	+3	34
9	Gyeongnam FC	25	+1	34
10	Cheongju	27	−8	32
11	Seongnam FC	26	−4	31
12	Paju Citizen	25	−4	29
13	Yongin City	25	−4	27
14	Cheonan City	26	−7	23
15	Ansan Greeners	26	−22	22
16	Jeonnam Dragons	25	−15	21
17	Gimhae City	25	−30	13