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Daegu FC v Cheongju

Daegu FC
3–1Full time
Cheongju

K League 2 · SAT 17 OCT · DGB Daegu Bank Park

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 08:31
Daegu FC 3–1 Cheongju DAEGU FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Daegu FC win55%
The market said60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.301
The market’s Brier score0.246

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Daegu FC win at 55%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Daegu FC 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Daegu FC v Cheongju
  4. 8′We said Daegu FC at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
  5. 8′Daegu FC score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
  6. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Daegu FC 1–0 Cheongju
  7. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Daegu FC win: 55% at kick-off, 79% now
  8. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Daegu FC 1–1 Cheongju
  9. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Daegu FC win: 55% at kick-off, 53% now
  10. 16′Cheongju find the net on 14′. 1–1. 1–1 · 52–27–21
  11. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Daegu FC
  12. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Cheongju
  13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Daegu FC win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  14. 45′We said Daegu FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–37–20
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Daegu FC 1–1 Cheongju
  16. 48′HALF-TIME Daegu FC 1–1 Cheongju
  17. 50′We said Daegu FC at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 2–1 · 81–15–4
  18. 50′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 81–15–4
  19. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Daegu FC 2–1 Cheongju
  20. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Daegu FC win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
  21. 52′A goal for Daegu FC on 51′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–4
  22. 53′Go Jae-Hyeon scores for Daegu FC on 52′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–4
  23. 54′We said Daegu FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–43–19
  24. 55′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 38–43–18
  25. 55′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Daegu FC
  26. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Daegu FC win: 55% at kick-off, 38% now
  27. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Daegu FC win 38%)
  28. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Daegu FC win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
  29. 62′We said Daegu FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–49–17
  30. 68′We said Daegu FC at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  31. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Daegu FC 2–1 Cheongju
  32. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Daegu FC win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  33. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Daegu FC win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
  34. 69′A goal for Daegu FC on 69′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  35. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Daegu FC · On: Ryu Jae-Moon · Off: Han Kook-Young
  36. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cheongju · On: Baek Sung-Dong · Off: Seo Jae-Won
  37. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cheongju · On: Heo Seung-Chan · Off: Jeong Jin-Woo
  38. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cheongju · On: Lee Gang-Han · Off: Bak Keon-Woo
  39. 78′We said Daegu FC at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  40. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Daegu FC · On: Lee Rim · Off: Hwang In-Taek
  41. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Daegu FC · On: Matheus Serafim · Off: Kim Ju-Gong
  42. 79′We said Daegu FC at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  43. 79′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  44. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Daegu FC 3–1 Cheongju
  45. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Daegu FC win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
  46. 80′Daegu FC score on 80′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–0–0
  47. 81′We said Daegu FC at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  48. 83′79′: M. Dackers on the scoresheet for Daegu FC, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  49. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Cheongju · On: Yang Young-been · Off: Chico Geraldes
  50. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Cheongju · On: Lee Dong-won · Off: J. Lee
  51. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Daegu FC · On: Darnlei · Off: Cesinha
  52. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Daegu FC · On: Hong Jae-Seok · Off: Lee Won-Woo
  53. 96′3–1 at the end. Our 55% on Daegu FC comes in. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  54. FTFULL TIME Daegu FC 3–1 Cheongju
  55. FTDaegu FC 3–1 Cheongju · Daegu FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Daegu FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Daegu FC 55%, draw 24%, Cheongju 21%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Daegu FC v CheongjuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Daegu FC win55%
Draw24%
Cheongju win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueDGB Daegu Bank Park

Line-ups

Daegu FC

Cheongju

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Daegu FC

Cheongju

28Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Sept · K League 2

Last match: 9 Oct · K League 2

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Daegu FC26+1346
10Cheongju27−832

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Daegu FC

Formation not confirmed

31 Han Tae-Hui

2 Hwang Jae-Won

20 Kim Kang-San

15 Lee Won-Woo

26 Hwang In-Taek

17 Go Jae-Hyeon

14 Park Se-Jin

11 Cesinha

8 Han Kook-Young

77 Kim Ju-Gong

16 M. Dackers

Coach · Sung-yong Choi

Substitutes

1 · Go Dong-Min

22 · Jang Sung-won

66 · Lee Rim

55 · Hong Jae-Seok

29 · Ryu Jae-Moon

25 · Kim Dae-Woo

10 · Matheus Serafim

7 · Darnlei

99 · Park In-Hyeok

Cheongju

Formation not confirmed

23 Cho Seong-Been

25 Bandeira

18 Jo Ju-yeong

4 Jo Yun-Seong

8 Bak Keon-Woo

5 Kim Seon-Min

80 Chico Geraldes

42 Jeong Jin-Woo

14 Seo Jae-Won

13 J. Lee

11 M. Garcia

Coach · Rui Quinta

Substitutes

32 · Lee Seung-Hwan

66 · Lee Gang-Han

41 · Kang Eui-Bin

16 · Heo Seung-Chan

22 · Yang Young-been

7 · Baek Sung-Dong

19 · Song Chang-Seok

17 · Lee Dong-won

37 · L. Yoon-Hwan

Our number · daegu fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
55% The market60%
Us55%
Market60%

We make Daegu FC a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Daegu FC v Cheongju1.82 – 1.03
Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 16 AugW3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 46 v 324 v 10
The market · Daegu FC win60% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 05:27
Our probability · Daegu FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Daegu FC win55%60%−5
Draw24%22%+2
Cheongju win21%18%+3
Over 2.5 goals54%58%−4
Both teams to score54%56%−2
Over 1.5 goals78%79%−1
Over 3.5 goals32%36%−4
Daegu FC or draw79%82%−3
Daegu FC clean sheet36%––
Cheongju clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%
0123450 6.5 5.6 3.1 1 10.1 11.2 5.5 2 9.5 9.7 5.0 3 5.8 5.9 3.0 4 2.7 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Daegu FC down, Cheongju across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting4.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsCHE 1–5 DAE · DAE 1–2 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 16 Aug

DAEGU FC

WDWDWL2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–2

CHEONGJU

DLLWWW1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 3–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Suwon Bluewings26+2256
2Suwon City FC26+2251
3Seoul E-Land FC27+1651
4Daegu FC26+1346
5Hwaseong27+1344
6Busan I Park27+742
7Asan Mugunghwa26+335
8Gimpo Citizen26035
9Gyeongnam FC26034
10Cheongju27−832
11Seongnam FC26−431
12Paju Citizen26−430
13Yongin City26−527
14Cheonan City27−626
15Jeonnam Dragons26−1424
16Ansan Greeners27−2522
17Gimhae City26−3014

The competition's standings before kick-off.