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Cheongju v Seongnam FC

Cheongju

3–1Full time

Seongnam FC

K League 2 · FRI 9 OCT · Cheongju Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 11:02

Cheongju 3–1 Seongnam FC SEONGNAM FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Seongnam FC win~~41%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.760

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.640

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cheongju win29%

Draw30%

Seongnam FC win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 08:30

Venue · Cheongju Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cheongju

Formation not confirmed

23 Cho Seong-Been

8 Bak Keon-Woo

18 Jo Ju-yeong

4 Park Jin-young

25 Bandeira

5 Kim Seon-Min

80 Chico Geraldes

42 Jeong Jin-Woo

11 M. Garcia

13 J. Lee

14 Seo Jae-Won

Coach · Rui Quinta

Substitutes

32 · Lee Seung-Hwan

66 · Lee Gang-Han

99 · Lee Chang-Hun

17 · Lee Dong-won

27 · Min Ji-Hoon

7 · Baek Sung-Dong

19 · Song Chang-Seok

22 · Yang Young-been

37 · L. Yoon-Hwan

Seongnam FC

Formation not confirmed

1 Lee Kwang-Yeon

20 Lee Sang-Min

4 Venicio

5 Yu Sun

7 Hong Chang-Beom

23 You Ju-An

14 Elionay

22 Jung Seung-Yong

8 Lee Jeong-Bin

18 Kim Min-jae

32 Yun Min-Ho

Coach · Han Dong-hoon

Substitutes

28 · Joung Myung-jae

2 · Hwang Seok-Ki

9 · Rodrigo Angelotti

13 · S. Hong

16 · Ryu Jun-sun

17 · Park Byeong-gyu

35 · Kim Ji-hyuk

36 · Lee Jae-Wook

90 · M. Jeon

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cheongju

Formation not confirmed

23 Cho Seong-Been

8 Bak Keon-Woo

18 Jo Ju-yeong

4 Park Jin-young

25 Bandeira

5 Kim Seon-Min

80 Chico Geraldes

42 Jeong Jin-Woo

11 M. Garcia

13 J. Lee

14 Seo Jae-Won

Coach · Rui Quinta

Substitutes

32 · Lee Seung-Hwan

66 · Lee Gang-Han

99 · Lee Chang-Hun

17 · Lee Dong-won

27 · Min Ji-Hoon

7 · Baek Sung-Dong

19 · Song Chang-Seok

22 · Yang Young-been

37 · L. Yoon-Hwan

Seongnam FC

Formation not confirmed

1 Lee Kwang-Yeon

20 Lee Sang-Min

4 Venicio

5 Yu Sun

7 Hong Chang-Beom

23 You Ju-An

14 Elionay

22 Jung Seung-Yong

8 Lee Jeong-Bin

18 Kim Min-jae

32 Yun Min-Ho

Coach · Han Dong-hoon

Substitutes

28 · Joung Myung-jae

2 · Hwang Seok-Ki

9 · Rodrigo Angelotti

13 · S. Hong

16 · Ryu Jun-sun

17 · Park Byeong-gyu

35 · Kim Ji-hyuk

36 · Lee Jae-Wook

90 · M. Jeon

Our number · seongnam fc winPublished 9 Oct 08:30

41% The market36%

Us41%

~~Market~~36%

We make Seongnam FC a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cheongju win	29%	35%	−6
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Seongnam FC win	41%	36%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	38%	47%	−9
Both teams to score	45%	53%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	65%	71%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−8
Cheongju or draw	59%	64%	−5
Cheongju clean sheet	30%	–	–
Seongnam FC clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.7 12.7 8.2 3.4 1 10.2 13.7 8.0 3.3 2 5.3 6.5 4.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cheongju down, Seongnam FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,367 K League 2 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cheongju at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Seongnam FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Cheongju, 1.23 for Seongnam FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SEO 2–2 CHE · CHE 0–1 SEO · CHE 0–1 SEO · SEO 1–1 CHE

Form · last six in K League 2

CHEONGJU

WDLLWW2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–2

SEONGNAM FC

LWDWLD1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	25	+19	53
2	Suwon City FC	25	+21	48
3	Seoul E-Land FC	26	+15	48
4	Daegu FC	26	+13	46
5	Hwaseong	26	+14	44
6	Busan I Park	26	+7	41
7	Gimpo Citizen	25	+1	35
8	Asan Mugunghwa	25	+3	34
9	Gyeongnam FC	25	+1	34
10	Seongnam FC	25	−2	31
11	Paju Citizen	25	−4	29
12	Cheongju	26	−10	29
13	Yongin City	25	−4	27
14	Cheonan City	26	−7	23
15	Ansan Greeners	26	−22	22
16	Jeonnam Dragons	25	−15	21
17	Gimhae City	25	−30	13