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Cheonan City v Gyeongnam FC

Cheonan City

1–0Full time

Gyeongnam FC

K League 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Cheonan Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 11:12

Cheonan City 1–0 Gyeongnam FC GYEONGNAM FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gyeongnam FC win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.644

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.562

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gyeongnam FC win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gyeongnam FC was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Cheonan City v Gyeongnam FC
18′SUBSTITUTION · 18' Cheonan City · On: Lee Sang-Jun · Off: Lee Kyu-Min
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Gyeongnam FC
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Gyeongnam FC win 31%)
45′SECOND HALF Cheonan City 0–0 Gyeongnam FC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gyeongnam FC · On: Son Ho-Jun · Off: Jang Seung-woo
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Cheonan City 1–0 Gyeongnam FC
54′⚽ GOAL · 55' Cheonan City 1–0 Gyeongnam FC
60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Cheonan City
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Gyeongnam FC · On: Felipe Fonseca · Off: M. Jeon
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Gyeongnam FC · On: Lee Heon-Jae · Off: Cho Sang-Jun
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cheonan City · On: Choi Jun-Hyeok · Off: J. Koo
85′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cheonan City · On: Ko Tae-Won · Off: Jeong Ji-hwang
85′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Cheonan City · On: Gustavo Sarjani · Off: Lee Sang-Jun Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Gyeongnam FC · On: Kim Seon-Ho · Off: Kwon Gi-Pyo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Gyeongnam FC · On: A. Karadzic · Off: Kim Ha-min
98′🟨 YELLOW · 99' Cheonan City
FTFULL TIME Cheonan City 1–0 Gyeongnam FC
FTCheonan City 1–0 Gyeongnam FC · Gyeongnam FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cheonan City win35%

Draw27%

Gyeongnam FC win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 08:30

Venue · Cheonan Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cheonan City

Formation not confirmed

21 Park Dae-Han

66 Jeong Ji-hwang

6 Choi Kyu-Baek

24 Kwon Yong-seung

77 Lee Kyu-Min

99 Bruno Lamas

17 Lee Ji-Seung

27 Park Chang-Woo

14 J. Koo

10 A. Toungara

94 Willyan

Coach · Jin-sub Park

Substitutes

33 · Lee Seung-Kyu

5 · Ko Tae-Won

23 · Lee Dong-Hyeop

8 · Her Dong-Min

4 · Choi Jun-Hyeok

19 · Jin Ui-jun

7 · Lee Sang-Jun

18 · Ahn Chang-Min

70 · Gustavo Sarjani

Gyeongnam FC

Formation not confirmed

13 Lee Ki-Hyun

2 Bae Hyun-Seo

30 Jeong Hyeon-wook

39 Lucao

14 M. Jeon

55 Jang Seung-woo

77 Kim Ha-min

23 Kwon Gi-Pyo

22 Kim Hyeong-Won

66 Cho Sang-Jun

90 Kim Hyeon-oh

Coach · Sung-jae Bae

Substitutes

31 · Kim Tae-Hoon

26 · Choi Jung-Won

18 · Kim Seon-Ho

27 · Son Ho-Jun

29 · A. Karadzic

8 · Lee Chan-Dong

99 · Lee Jung-Min

70 · Felipe Fonseca

71 · Lee Heon-Jae

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cheonan City

Formation not confirmed

21 Park Dae-Han

66 Jeong Ji-hwang

6 Choi Kyu-Baek

24 Kwon Yong-seung

77 Lee Kyu-Min

99 Bruno Lamas

17 Lee Ji-Seung

27 Park Chang-Woo

14 J. Koo

10 A. Toungara

94 Willyan

Coach · Jin-sub Park

Substitutes

33 · Lee Seung-Kyu

5 · Ko Tae-Won

23 · Lee Dong-Hyeop

8 · Her Dong-Min

4 · Choi Jun-Hyeok

19 · Jin Ui-jun

7 · Lee Sang-Jun

18 · Ahn Chang-Min

70 · Gustavo Sarjani

Gyeongnam FC

Formation not confirmed

13 Lee Ki-Hyun

2 Bae Hyun-Seo

30 Jeong Hyeon-wook

39 Lucao

14 M. Jeon

55 Jang Seung-woo

77 Kim Ha-min

23 Kwon Gi-Pyo

22 Kim Hyeong-Won

66 Cho Sang-Jun

90 Kim Hyeon-oh

Coach · Sung-jae Bae

Substitutes

31 · Kim Tae-Hoon

26 · Choi Jung-Won

18 · Kim Seon-Ho

27 · Son Ho-Jun

29 · A. Karadzic

8 · Lee Chan-Dong

99 · Lee Jung-Min

70 · Felipe Fonseca

71 · Lee Heon-Jae

Our number · gyeongnam fc winPublished 10 Oct 08:34

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make Gyeongnam FC a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cheonan City win	35%	39%	−4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Gyeongnam FC win	38%	33%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	47%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	71%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	27%	+1
Cheonan City or draw	62%	67%	−5
Cheonan City clean sheet	26%	–	–
Gyeongnam FC clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.7 9.1 6.5 3.0 1 8.6 12.8 8.3 3.8 2 5.9 7.9 5.4 2.5 3 2.5 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cheonan City down, Gyeongnam FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,370 K League 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 219 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.70 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cheonan City at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gyeongnam FC away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Cheonan City, 1.37 for Gyeongnam FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GYE 2–1 CHE · GYE 2–0 CHE · CHE 4–0 GYE · GYE 3–1 CHE

Form · last six in K League 2

CHEONAN CITY

DLLDDL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

GYEONGNAM FC

LDDWWD0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	25	+19	53
2	Suwon City FC	26	+22	51
3	Seoul E-Land FC	27	+16	51
4	Daegu FC	26	+13	46
5	Hwaseong	27	+13	44
6	Busan I Park	26	+7	41
7	Gimpo Citizen	26	0	35
8	Asan Mugunghwa	25	+3	34
9	Gyeongnam FC	25	+1	34
10	Cheongju	27	−8	32
11	Seongnam FC	26	−4	31
12	Paju Citizen	25	−4	29
13	Yongin City	25	−4	27
14	Cheonan City	26	−7	23
15	Ansan Greeners	26	−22	22
16	Jeonnam Dragons	25	−15	21
17	Gimhae City	25	−30	13