Cheonan City v Ansan Greeners prediction · K League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cheonan CityDrawAnsan Greeners

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 07:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Cheonan City 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cheonan City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cheonan City 45%, draw 26%, Ansan Greeners 28%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Cheonan City v Ansan GreenersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cheonan City win45%

Draw26%

Ansan Greeners win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 07:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueCheonan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cheonan City

Ansan Greeners

15Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 17 Oct · K League 2

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Cheonan City	27	−6	26
15	Ansan Greeners	28	−21	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cheonan city winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Cheonan City a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cheonan City v Ansan Greeners~~1.56 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 26 v 25~~14 v 15

~~The market · Cheonan City win~~51% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cheonan City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cheonan City win	45%	51%	−6
Draw	26%	26%	0
Ansan Greeners win	28%	23%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Cheonan City or draw	72%	77%	−5
Cheonan City clean sheet	31%	–	–
Ansan Greeners clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.2 7.1 4.5 1 9.6 12.3 6.9 2.8 2 7.8 9.1 5.4 2.1 3 4.1 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cheonan City down, Ansan Greeners across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,383 K League 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 232 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cheonan City at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ansan Greeners away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Cheonan City, 1.18 for Ansan Greeners. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ANS 1–3 CHE · CHE 0–0 ANS · ANS 0–0 CHE · CHE 0–1 ANS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 Aug

CHEONAN CITY

LLDDLW0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0

ANSAN GREENERS

LWLLLW1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	27	+23	59
2	Suwon City FC	27	+23	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	+20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	+17	52
5	Busan I Park	28	+8	45
6	Hwaseong	28	+12	44
7	Gimpo Citizen	28	+2	38
8	Asan Mugunghwa	27	+3	36
9	Gyeongnam FC	27	0	35
10	Cheongju	28	−10	32
11	Seongnam FC	27	−5	31
12	Paju Citizen	27	−7	30
13	Yongin City	27	−9	27
14	Cheonan City	27	−6	26
15	Ansan Greeners	28	−21	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	−17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	−33	17