Busan I Park v Jeonnam Dragons prediction · K League 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 11:04

Busan I Park 2–1 Jeonnam Dragons BUSAN I PARK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Busan I Park win~~44%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.468

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.356

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Busan I Park win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Busan I Park was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Busan I Park v Jeonnam Dragons
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Busan I Park
45′HALF-TIME Busan I Park 0–0 Jeonnam Dragons
46′SECOND HALF Busan I Park 0–0 Jeonnam Dragons
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Busan I Park · On: Kim Min-Hyeok · Off: Xavier
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Jeonnam Dragons · On: Ha Nam · Off: Yoon Min-ho
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Busan I Park win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Busan I Park win 34%)
52′Busan I Park find the net on 52′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Busan I Park 1–0 Jeonnam Dragons
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Busan I Park win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Busan I Park win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
53′We published Busan I Park at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Jeonnam Dragons
66′We published Busan I Park at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Jeonnam Dragons · On: Mirandinha · Off: Jeong Ji-Yong
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Jeonnam Dragons · On: I. Bughridze · Off: Jang Yun-Ho
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Busan I Park · On: Park Hye-seong · Off: Gabriel Honorio
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Busan I Park · On: Kim Hyun-Min · Off: Ahn Hyun-Beom
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Busan I Park win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
75′We published Busan I Park at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Busan I Park · On: Jang Ho-Ik · Off: Kim Se-Hoon
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Busan I Park · On: Baek Ga-On · Off: J. Kim
81′We published Busan I Park at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Jeonnam Dragons · On: T. Jung · Off: S. Ho
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Busan I Park win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
88′A goal for Jeonnam Dragons on 88′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 7–88–5
88′We said Busan I Park at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–88–5
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Busan I Park 1–1 Jeonnam Dragons
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Busan I Park win: 44% at kick-off, 7% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Busan I Park win 7%)
90′I. Bughridze scores for Jeonnam Dragons on 87′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 5–91–4
91′We said Busan I Park at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Busan I Park win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Jeonnam Dragons · On: Ku Hyun-Jun · Off: Noh Dong-Geon
96′Busan I Park score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Busan I Park 2–1 Jeonnam Dragons
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+6' Busan I Park win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Busan I Park win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
FTFULL TIME Busan I Park 2–1 Jeonnam Dragons
FTBusan I Park 2–1 Jeonnam Dragons · Busan I Park win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Busan I Park are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Busan I Park 44%, draw 25%, Jeonnam Dragons 30%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Busan I Park v Jeonnam DragonsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Busan I Park win44%

Draw25%

Jeonnam Dragons win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueBusan Gudeok Stadium

Line-ups

Busan I Park

Jeonnam Dragons

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Busan I Park

Jeonnam Dragons

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · K League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Busan I Park	27	+7	42
16	Jeonnam Dragons	26	−14	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Busan I Park

Formation not confirmed

1 Koo Sang-Min

55 Kwon Jun-seong

44 Choi Dong-ryeol

20 Kim Hee-Seung

11 Ahn Hyun-Beom

97 J. Son

7 Xavier

17 Jeon Seung-Jin

10 Gabriel Honorio

4 J. Kim

66 Kim Se-Hoon

Coach · Sung-Hwan Cho

Substitutes

34 · Park Ji-Min

3 · Cho Dong-Jae

2 · O. Akhadov

77 · Jang Ho-Ik

80 · Gutemberg

8 · Kim Min-Hyeok

88 · Park Hye-seong

13 · Kim Hyun-Min

18 · Baek Ga-On

Jeonnam Dragons

Formation not confirmed

1 Choi Bong-Jin

44 Noh Dong-Geon

2 Yoo Ji-Ha

16 S. Ho

17 Kim Beom-Su

34 Jang Yun-Ho

8 Park Tae-Yong

99 Jeong Kang-min

14 Yoon Min-ho

10 Valdivia

11 Jeong Ji-Yong

Coach · Kwan-sik Lim

Substitutes

31 · M. Jo

4 · Ku Hyun-Jun

75 · Ryu Kwang-hyun

20 · T. Jung

79 · Mirandinha

27 · I. Bughridze

9 · Ha Nam

47 · Son Gun-ho

28 · Yoon Young-seok

Our number · busan i park winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market51%

Us44%

~~Market~~51%

We make Busan I Park a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Busan I Park v Jeonnam Dragons~~1.60 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 42 v 24~~6 v 16

~~The market · Busan I Park win~~51% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Busan I Park win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Busan I Park win	44%	51%	−7
Draw	25%	25%	0
Jeonnam Dragons win	30%	23%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	53%	+2
Both teams to score	58%	55%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	33%	0
Busan I Park or draw	70%	77%	−7
Busan I Park clean sheet	28%	–	–
Jeonnam Dragons clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.2 6.7 4.6 2.0 1 8.4 11.9 7.3 3.2 2 7.1 9.0 5.8 2.5 3 3.8 4.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Busan I Park down, Jeonnam Dragons across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,380 K League 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 229 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Busan I Park at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Jeonnam Dragons away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Busan I Park, 1.29 for Jeonnam Dragons. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JEO 3–3 BUS · BUS 1–1 JEO · JEO 0–1 BUS · BUS 0–1 JEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 22 Aug

BUSAN I PARK

DLLWLD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

JEONNAM DRAGONS

WWDDLW1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	26	+22	56
2	Suwon City FC	27	+23	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	27	+16	51
4	Daegu FC	27	+15	49
5	Hwaseong	27	+13	44
6	Busan I Park	27	+7	42
7	Gimpo Citizen	27	+3	38
8	Asan Mugunghwa	27	+3	36
9	Gyeongnam FC	27	0	35
10	Cheongju	28	−10	32
11	Seongnam FC	27	−5	31
12	Paju Citizen	27	−7	30
13	Yongin City	27	−9	27
14	Cheonan City	27	−6	26
15	Ansan Greeners	28	−21	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	26	−14	24
17	Gimhae City	26	−30	14