Busan I Park v Gyeongnam FC prediction · K League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Busan I ParkDrawGyeongnam FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Busan I Park 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Busan I Park are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Busan I Park 46%, draw 27%, Gyeongnam FC 26%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Busan I Park v Gyeongnam FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Busan I Park win46%

Draw27%

Gyeongnam FC win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueBusan Gudeok Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Busan I Park

Gyeongnam FC

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 17 Oct · K League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Busan I Park	28	+8	45
9	Gyeongnam FC	27	0	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · busan i park winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make Busan I Park a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Busan I Park v Gyeongnam FC~~1.45 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 45 v 35~~5 v 9

~~The market · Busan I Park win~~49% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Busan I Park win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Busan I Park win	46%	49%	−3
Draw	27%	27%	0
Gyeongnam FC win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	27%	−3
Busan I Park or draw	74%	76%	−2
Busan I Park clean sheet	36%	–	–
Gyeongnam FC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.1 8.1 4.5 1 11.5 12.9 6.4 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.6 3 4.3 4.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Busan I Park down, Gyeongnam FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,383 K League 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 232 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Busan I Park at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gyeongnam FC away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Busan I Park, 1.03 for Gyeongnam FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GYE 1–2 BUS · BUS 1–1 GYE · GYE 1–0 BUS · BUS 0–1 GYE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 23 Aug

BUSAN I PARK

LLWLDW1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

GYEONGNAM FC

DWWDLD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	27	+23	59
2	Suwon City FC	27	+23	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	+20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	+17	52
5	Busan I Park	28	+8	45
6	Hwaseong	28	+12	44
7	Gimpo Citizen	28	+2	38
8	Asan Mugunghwa	27	+3	36
9	Gyeongnam FC	27	0	35
10	Cheongju	28	−10	32
11	Seongnam FC	27	−5	31
12	Paju Citizen	27	−7	30
13	Yongin City	27	−9	27
14	Cheonan City	27	−6	26
15	Ansan Greeners	28	−21	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	−17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	−33	17