Asan Mugunghwa v Gimpo Citizen prediction · K League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Asan MugunghwaDrawGimpo Citizen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 07:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Asan Mugunghwa 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Asan Mugunghwa just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Asan Mugunghwa 37%, draw 30%, Gimpo Citizen 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Asan Mugunghwa v Gimpo CitizenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Asan Mugunghwa win37%

Draw30%

Gimpo Citizen win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 07:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueYishunsin Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Asan Mugunghwa

Gimpo Citizen

6Days since last match7

Last match: 25 Oct · K League 2

Last match: 24 Oct · K League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Gimpo Citizen	28	+2	38
8	Asan Mugunghwa	27	+3	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asan mugunghwa winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Asan Mugunghwa a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Asan Mugunghwa v Gimpo Citizen~~1.18 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 36 v 38~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Asan Mugunghwa win	37%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Gimpo Citizen win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Asan Mugunghwa or draw	66%	–	–
Asan Mugunghwa clean sheet	33%	–	–
Gimpo Citizen clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.9 10.7 6.3 2.3 1 11.4 13.7 7.3 2.7 2 7.0 7.7 4.3 3 2.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Asan Mugunghwa down, Gimpo Citizen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,385 K League 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.0% of games this season, across 234 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Asan Mugunghwa at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gimpo Citizen away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Asan Mugunghwa, 1.11 for Gimpo Citizen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GIM 0–2 ASA · ASA 1–0 GIM · ASA 2–0 GIM · GIM 1–1 ASA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 2 this season · since 6 Sept

ASAN MUGUNGHWA

LLWDDW0–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

GIMPO CITIZEN

LDWLWL1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Suwon Bluewings	27	+23	59
2	Suwon City FC	27	+23	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	+20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	+17	52
5	Busan I Park	28	+8	45
6	Hwaseong	28	+12	44
7	Gimpo Citizen	28	+2	38
8	Asan Mugunghwa	27	+3	36
9	Gyeongnam FC	27	0	35
10	Cheongju	28	−10	32
11	Seongnam FC	27	−5	31
12	Paju Citizen	27	−7	30
13	Yongin City	27	−9	27
14	Cheonan City	27	−6	26
15	Ansan Greeners	28	−21	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	−17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	−33	17