Ulsan Hyundai FC v Pohang Steelers prediction · K League 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–2 Pohang Steelers ULSAN HYUNDAI FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ulsan Hyundai FC win~~44%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.790

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.872

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ulsan Hyundai FC win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Ulsan Hyundai FC v Pohang Steelers
2′Pohang Steelers find the net on 1′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–56
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–1 Pohang Steelers
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 21% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Pohang Steelers win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Ulsan Hyundai FC win 44%)
3′Pohang Steelers find the net on 2′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–56
3′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–56
10′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–57
22′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Lee Jae-ik · Ulsan Hyundai FC
25′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–11–84
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–2 Pohang Steelers
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 5% now
27′Kim Seung-Ho scores for Pohang Steelers on 25′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–11–85
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
28′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
45′SECOND HALF Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–2 Pohang Steelers
48′HALF-TIME Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–2 Pohang Steelers
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ulsan Hyundai FC · On: Lee Hui-gyun · Off: Erick Farias
59′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
60′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 6–22–72
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–2 Pohang Steelers
62′10 shots for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 5–22–73
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Pohang Steelers · On: Cho Sang-Hyeok · Off: Jakob Tranziska
64′61′: Kim Young-Gwon on the scoresheet for Ulsan Hyundai FC, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–21–74
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ulsan Hyundai FC · On: Yong-Woo Park · Off: Darijan Bojanić
67′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 24–59–17
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–2 Pohang Steelers
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Pohang Steelers win 76%)
70′Ulsan Hyundai FC level it on 68′ through Lee Dong-gyeong. 2–2. 2–2 · 22–62–16
70′12 shots for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 22–62–16
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Pohang Steelers · On: Jung Han-Min · Off: Kento Nishiya
79′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–76–10
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
88′16 shots for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 6–90–4
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
91′PENALTY MISSED · 90' Jorge Luiz Barbosa Teixeira · Pohang Steelers
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Pohang Steelers · On: Jo Sung-Wook · Off: Shin Kwang-Hoon
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Pohang Steelers · On: Kim Ye-Sung · Off: Kang Min-jun
FTFULL TIME Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–2 Pohang Steelers
FTUlsan Hyundai FC 2–2 Pohang Steelers · Ulsan Hyundai FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ulsan Hyundai FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, draw 28%, Pohang Steelers 28%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Ulsan Hyundai FC v Pohang SteelersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ulsan Hyundai FC win44%

Draw28%

Pohang Steelers win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueUlsan Munsu Football Stadium

Line-ups

Ulsan Hyundai FC

4-4-2

Pohang Steelers

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ulsan Hyundai FC

Pohang Steelers

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · K League 1

Last match: 18 Oct · K League 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	32	+5	50
9	Pohang Steelers	32	−9	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ulsan Hyundai FC

4-4-2

21 Jo Hyeon-Woo

26 Cho Hyun-Taek

96 Choi Seok-Hyun

55 T. Oude Kotte

19 Kim Young-Gwon

6 D. Bojanić

28 Lee Jae-Ik

11 Erick Farias

99 Yago Cariello

14 Lee Jin-Hyun

10 Lee Dong-Gyeong

Coach · Kim Hyun-Seok

Substitutes

72 · Back In-Woo

33 · Jang Si-Young

24 · Lee Gyu-Sung

8 · Lee Hui-Gyun

38 · Park Yong-Woo

16 · Park Woo-jin

13 · Ryu Seong-Min

66 · M. Trojak

2 · Yoon Jong-Gyu

Pohang Steelers

4-3-3

21 Hwang In-Jae

20 Park Chan-Yong

77 Wanderson

8 Kim Seung-Ho

4 Jeon Min-Gwang

16 Kim Dong-Jin

17 Shin Kwang-Hoon

13 Kang Min-Jun

25 Jorge Luiz

31 K. Nishiya

10 J. Tranziska

Coach · Tae-ha Park

Substitutes

18 · Cho Sang-Hyeok

33 · Jo Sung-Wook

37 · Jung Han-Min

30 · Kim Yong-Hak

3 · Ye-Sung Kim

36 · H. Kim

22 · K. Gwang-won

14 · Lee Chang-Woo

1 · Yun Pyeong-Gook

Our number · ulsan hyundai fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market51%

Us44%

~~Market~~51%

We make Ulsan Hyundai FC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ulsan Hyundai FC v Pohang Steelers~~1.41 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 50 v 41~~2 v 9

~~The market · Ulsan Hyundai FC win~~51% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ulsan Hyundai FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ulsan Hyundai FC win	44%	51%	−7
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Pohang Steelers win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	54%	−9
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	71%	77%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	33%	−9
Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw	72%	76%	−4
Ulsan Hyundai FC clean sheet	34%	–	–
Pohang Steelers clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.1 8.3 4.8 1 11.1 13.3 6.7 2.4 2 8.3 8.8 4.7 3 3.9 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ulsan Hyundai FC down, Pohang Steelers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,350 K League 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pohang Steelers away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1.07 for Pohang Steelers. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~POH 0–2 ULS · ULS 0–1 POH · POH 1–1 ULS · ULS 1–1 POH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC

DWWLLW0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 2–1

POHANG STEELERS

LDDWLD0–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Seoul	32	+32	66
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	32	+5	50
3	Jeonbuk Motors	32	+10	47
4	Gangwon FC	32	+10	47
5	Daejeon Citizen	32	+11	46
6	Jeju United FC	32	+4	46
7	Incheon United	32	+6	43
8	FC Anyang	32	−8	42
9	Pohang Steelers	32	−9	41
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	32	−7	34
11	Bucheon FC 1995	32	−12	32
12	Gwangju FC	32	−42	18