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Ulsan Hyundai FC v Bucheon FC 1995

Ulsan Hyundai FC

2–1Full time

Bucheon FC 1995

K League 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 11:07

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–1 Bucheon FC 1995 ULSAN HYUNDAI FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ulsan Hyundai FC win~~47%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.419

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.279

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ulsan Hyundai FC win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
1′KICK-OFF Ulsan Hyundai FC v Bucheon FC 1995
14′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–24–55
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–1 Bucheon FC 1995
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Bucheon FC 1995 win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Ulsan Hyundai FC win 21%)
16′Bucheon FC 1995 score on 15′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–24–55
21′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–56
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–1 Bucheon FC 1995
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 47% at kick-off, 43% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Ulsan Hyundai FC win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Bucheon FC 1995 win 26%)
29′Ulsan Hyundai FC level it on 27′ through Jung Seung-Hyun . 1–1. 1–1 · 42–33–25
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 16–25–59
35′GOAL DISALLOWED · 35' Ulsan Hyundai FC
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 47% at kick-off, 15% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Bucheon FC 1995 win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Ulsan Hyundai FC win 15%)
38′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
45′HALF-TIME Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–1 Bucheon FC 1995
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+8' Cho Hyun-Taek · Ulsan Hyundai FC
45′SECOND HALF Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–1 Bucheon FC 1995
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+8' Thiago Nascimento dos Santos · Bucheon FC 1995
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ulsan Hyundai FC · On: Erick Farias · Off: Lee Gyu-sung
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Seung-bin Kim · Bucheon FC 1995
53′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
53′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–22
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–1 Bucheon FC 1995
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 47% at kick-off, 34% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Bucheon FC 1995 win 22%)
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Kazuki Takahashi · Bucheon FC 1995
55′Ulsan Hyundai FC level it on 54′ through Lee Jin-Hyun. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–45–21
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Bucheon FC 1995
61′Bucheon FC 1995 are down to ten from 60′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 30–50–20
62′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–19
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Bucheon FC 1995 · On: Jefferson Fernando Isidio · Off: Kim Min-Jun
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bucheon FC 1995 · On: Kim Sang-jun · Off: Park Jeong-in
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Jung Seung-Hyun · Ulsan Hyundai FC
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bucheon FC 1995 · On: An Tae-hyun · Off: Thiago Nascimento dos Santos
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bucheon FC 1995 · On: Lee Jae-Won · Off: Jo Seong-jun
82′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
82′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 92–8–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–1 Bucheon FC 1995
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 47% at kick-off, 92% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Ulsan Hyundai FC win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
84′Yago Cariello Ribeiro scores for Ulsan Hyundai FC on 83′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
85′Yago Cariello Ribeiro scores for Ulsan Hyundai FC on 82′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
87′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Ulsan Hyundai FC · On: Yong-Woo Park · Off: Darijan Bojanić
90′2–1 at the end. Our 47% on Ulsan Hyundai FC comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ulsan Hyundai FC · On: Kang Sang-Woo · Off: Lee Jin-Hyun
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Bucheon FC 1995 · On: Gustavo · Off: Kazuki Takahashi
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Ulsan Hyundai FC · On: Yoon Jong-Gyu · Off: Choi Seok-hyeon
FTFULL TIME Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–1 Bucheon FC 1995
FTUlsan Hyundai FC 2–1 Bucheon FC 1995 · Ulsan Hyundai FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ulsan Hyundai FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, draw 26%, Bucheon FC 1995 27%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Ulsan Hyundai FC v Bucheon FC 1995Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ulsan Hyundai FC win47%

Draw26%

Bucheon FC 1995 win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueUlsan Munsu Football Stadium

Line-ups

Ulsan Hyundai FC

3-4-3

Bucheon FC 1995

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ulsan Hyundai FC

Bucheon FC 1995

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · K League 1

Last match: 9 Oct · K League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	31	+4	47
11	Bucheon FC 1995	31	−11	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ulsan Hyundai FC

3-4-3

21 Jo Hyeon-Woo

15 Jung Seung-Hyun

55 T. Oude Kotte

19 Kim Young-Gwon

96 Choi Seok-Hyun

24 Lee Gyu-Seong

6 D. Bojanic

26 Cho Hyun-Taek

10 Lee Dong-Gyeong

99 Yago Cariello

14 Lee Jin-Hyun

Coach · Hyun-seok Kim

Substitutes

13 · Ryu Seong-Min

66 · M. Trojak

2 · Yoon Jong-Gyu

17 · Kang Sang-Woo

38 · Park Yong-Woo

72 · Baek In-Woo

11 · Erick Farias

8 · H. Lee

33 · Jang Si-Young

Bucheon FC 1995

3-4-3

1 H. Kim

6 Jeong Ho-Jin

29 Baek Dong-Gyu

20 Hong Sung-Wook

7 Thiaguinho Santos

4 S. Ye-Geon

23 K. Takahashi

83 Jo Seong-Jun

13 Kim Min-Jun

9 Park Jeong-In

71 Kim Seung-Bin

Coach · Ou-Ghu Kwon

Substitutes

31 · Lee Sang-hyeon

25 · Yeo Bong-Hun

26 · An Tae-Hyun

16 · Kim Sang-Jun

93 · J. Lee

14 · Kim Jong-Woo

24 · Kim Dong-Hyun

11 · Galego

99 · Gustavo Nescau

Our number · ulsan hyundai fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market57%

Us47%

~~Market~~57%

We make Ulsan Hyundai FC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ulsan Hyundai FC v Bucheon FC 1995~~1.56 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 47 v 32~~2 v 11

~~The market · Ulsan Hyundai FC win~~57% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ulsan Hyundai FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ulsan Hyundai FC win	47%	57%	−10
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Bucheon FC 1995 win	27%	19%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	50%	56%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	35%	−7
Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw	73%	81%	−8
Ulsan Hyundai FC clean sheet	33%	–	–
Bucheon FC 1995 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.5 7.1 4.3 1 10.2 12.5 6.6 2.5 2 8.4 9.3 5.2 3 4.4 4.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ulsan Hyundai FC down, Bucheon FC 1995 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,344 K League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bucheon FC 1995 away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1.11 for Bucheon FC 1995. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 08:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ULS 1–0 BUC · BUC 1–2 ULS · ULS 1–1 BUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 29 Aug

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC

WDWWLL3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–4

BUCHEON FC 1995

DLLDLL1–1 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Seoul	31	+32	65
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	31	+4	47
3	Gangwon FC	31	+10	46
4	Jeju United FC	31	+5	46
5	Jeonbuk Motors	31	+9	44
6	Daejeon Citizen	31	+10	43
7	Incheon United	31	+6	42
8	FC Anyang	31	−8	41
9	Pohang Steelers	31	−9	40
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	31	−7	33
11	Bucheon FC 1995	31	−11	32
12	Gwangju FC	31	−41	18