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Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC

Jeonbuk Motors
3–2Full time
Jeju United FC

K League 1 · SUN 18 OCT · Jeonju World Cup Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 08:31
Jeonbuk Motors 3–2 Jeju United FC JEONBUK MOTORS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Jeonbuk Motors win47%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.423
The market’s Brier score0.395

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Jeonbuk Motors win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Jeonbuk Motors 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC
  4. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Jeju United FC
  5. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Lee Dong-Jun · Jeonbuk Motors
  6. 32′We said Jeonbuk Motors at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–6
  7. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Jeonbuk Motors 1–0 Jeju United FC
  8. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Jeonbuk Motors win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
  9. 33′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
  10. 35′Tiago Orobó scores for Jeonbuk Motors on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–6
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Jeonbuk Motors 1–1 Jeju United FC
  12. 47′We said Jeonbuk Motors at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–43–21
  13. 47′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–17–4
  14. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Jeonbuk Motors 2–1 Jeju United FC
  15. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Jeonbuk Motors win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
  16. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Jeonbuk Motors win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
  17. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jeonbuk Motors · On: Seung-Woo Lee · Off: Lee Dong-Jun
  18. 51′Jeonbuk Motors ahead on 47′ through Kim Young-Bin. 2–1. 2–1 · 79–17–4
  19. 52′We said Jeonbuk Motors at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–4
  20. 54′We said Jeonbuk Motors at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–48–20 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  21. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Jeonbuk Motors 1–1 Jeju United FC
  22. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Jeonbuk Motors win: 47% at kick-off, 32% now
  23. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Jeonbuk Motors win 32%)
  24. 55′45′: Emerson Negueba on the scoresheet for Jeju United FC, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 32–49–20 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  25. 58′HALF-TIME Jeonbuk Motors 1–1 Jeju United FC
  26. 60′We said Jeonbuk Motors at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–1 · 97–2–0
  27. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Jeonbuk Motors 3–1 Jeju United FC
  28. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Jeonbuk Motors win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  29. 61′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–2–0
  30. 62′Tiago Orobó scores for Jeonbuk Motors on 60′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  31. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Jeju United FC · On: Eraldo Cinari · Off: Lee Chang-Min
  32. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Jeju United FC · On: Rim Chang-Woo · Off: Park Chang-Jun
  33. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Jeju United FC · On: Choi Byung-Wook · Off: Kwon Gi-min
  34. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Kim Ryun-sung · Jeju United FC
  35. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Jeonbuk Motors · On: Lee Sang-Myung · Off: Kim Tae-hyeon
  36. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Jeonbuk Motors · On: Cho Wi-Je · Off: João Gamboa
  37. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Jeju United FC · On: Kim Shin-jin · Off: Lee Kun-hee
  38. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Jeju United FC · On: Park Min-Jae · Off: Kim Ryun-sung
  39. 80′We said Jeonbuk Motors at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  40. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Park Su-bin · Jeju United FC
  41. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Jeonbuk Motors · On: Kim Jin-Gyu · Off: Lee Yeong-jae
  42. 85′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  43. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Jeonbuk Motors 3–2 Jeju United FC
  44. 88′Rim Chang-Woo scores for Jeju United FC on 85′. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  45. 88′GOAL DISALLOWED · 88' Jeju United FC
  46. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Jeonbuk Motors · On: Vinicius Rodrigues Adelino Dos Santos · Off: Italo Vargas
  47. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Jeonbuk Motors 3–2 Jeju United FC
  48. 93′90′: Emerson Negueba on the scoresheet for Jeju United FC, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  49. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Jeonbuk Motors · On: Bruno Mota · Off: Tiago Orobó
  50. 99′3–2 at the end. Our 47% on Jeonbuk Motors comes in. 3–2 · 100–0–0
  51. FTFULL TIME Jeonbuk Motors 3–2 Jeju United FC
  52. FTJeonbuk Motors 3–2 Jeju United FC · Jeonbuk Motors win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jeonbuk Motors are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jeonbuk Motors 47%, draw 28%, Jeju United FC 25%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Jeonbuk Motors win47%
Draw28%
Jeju United FC win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 32

VenueJeonju World Cup Stadium

Line-ups

Jeonbuk Motors

4-3-3

Jeju United FC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jeonbuk Motors

Jeju United FC

4Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 10 Oct · K League 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Jeju United FC31+546
5Jeonbuk Motors31+944

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Jeonbuk Motors

4-3-3

31 Song Bum-Keun

77 Kim Tae-Hyeon

5 Park Ji-Su

2 Kim Young-Bin

66 Choi Woo-Jin

28 Lee Yeong-Jae

16 J. Gamboa

13 Kang Sang-Yoon

7 Lee Dong-Jun

9 Tiago Orobo

95 Italo

Coach · Jung-Yong Chung

Substitutes

1 · Lee Ju-hyeon

24 · Lee Sang-myung

4 · Cho Wi-Je

97 · Kim Jin-Gyu

6 · Maeng Seong-Ung

30 · Dodo

99 · Bruno Mota

10 · Lee Seung-Woo

11 · Kim Seung-Sub

Jeju United FC

4-4-2

1 Kim Dong-Jun

17 Yu In-Soo

2 T. Figueiredo

3 J. Celestine

40 Kim Ryun-sung

94 Emerson Negueba

6 Kwon Gi-min

8 Lee Chang-Min

7 Park Chang-Jun

10 G. Lee

33 Park Su-bin

Coach · Sergio Costa

Substitutes

81 · J. Heo

23 · Rim Chang-Woo

41 · Kim Jae-Woo

13 · Jeong Woon

55 · Kang Dong-hwi

22 · E. Cinari

18 · Kim Shin-Jin

24 · Choi Byung-wook

47 · Park Min-jae

Our number · jeonbuk motors winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market49%
Us47%
Market49%

We make Jeonbuk Motors a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC1.41 – 0.95
Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 30 AugW1 D3 L2 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 44 v 465 v 4
The market · Jeonbuk Motors win49% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 05:42
Our probability · Jeonbuk Motors win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Jeonbuk Motors win47%49%−2
Draw28%27%+1
Jeju United FC win25%25%0
Over 2.5 goals42%50%−8
Both teams to score47%53%−6
Over 1.5 goals69%73%−4
Over 3.5 goals21%29%−8
Jeonbuk Motors or draw75%75%0
Jeonbuk Motors clean sheet39%––
Jeju United FC clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 10.1 8.4 4.3 1 12.7 13.2 6.0 2 9.3 8.8 4.2 3 4.4 4.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Jeonbuk Motors down, Jeju United FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.90
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsJEO 1–3 JEJ · JEJ 0–2 JEO · JEJ 1–1 JEO · JEJ 0–0 JEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 30 Aug

JEONBUK MOTORS

DWDLDL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

JEJU UNITED FC

WDWDWL3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Seoul31+3265
2Ulsan Hyundai FC32+550
3Gangwon FC31+1046
4Jeju United FC31+546
5Jeonbuk Motors31+944
6Daejeon Citizen31+1043
7Incheon United31+642
8FC Anyang31−841
9Pohang Steelers31−940
10Gimcheon Sangmu FC31−733
11Bucheon FC 199532−1232
12Gwangju FC31−4118

The competition's standings before kick-off.