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Incheon United v Pohang Steelers

Incheon United

3–0Full time

Pohang Steelers

K League 1 · FRI 9 OCT · Incheon Football Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 11:02

Incheon United 3–0 Pohang Steelers INCHEON UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Incheon United win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.581

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.562

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Incheon United win38%

Draw31%

Pohang Steelers win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 08:30

Venue · Incheon Football Stadium

Referee · Ko Hyung-jin

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Incheon United

4-3-3

1 Kim Dong-Heon

39 Kim Myung-soon

4 Kim Gun-Hee

2 Ibiza

32 Lee Ju-Yong

17 Kim Seong-Min

5 Lee Myoung-Joo

26 Lee Min-Hyuk

72 Lee Chung-Yong

9 S. Mugosa

70 Leandro Ribeiro

Coach · Jong-Hwan Yoon

Substitutes

21 · Lee Tae-Hui

13 · Choi Seung-gu

20 · Park Kyung-sub

15 · Seo Jae-Min

11 · Gerso

99 · M. Ferrier

3 · Lee Sang-Gi

10 · Lee Dong-Ryul

77 · Park Seung-Ho

Pohang Steelers

5-3-2

21 Hwang In-Jae

2 Eo Jeong-Won

17 Shin Kwang-Hoon

4 Jeon Min-kwang

20 Park Chan-Yong

77 Wanderson

31 K. Nishiya

40 Ki Sung-Yueng

16 Kim Dong-Jin

11 J. da Rocha Junior

25 Jorge Teixeira

Coach · Tae-Ha Park

Substitutes

29 · Hong Sung-min

14 · Lee Chang-Woo

5 · Jin Si-woo

3 · Kim Ye-Sung

13 · Kang Min-Jun

8 · Kim Seung-Ho

10 · J. Tranziska

37 · Jung Han-Min

9 · J. An

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Incheon United

4-3-3

1 Kim Dong-Heon

39 Kim Myung-soon

4 Kim Gun-Hee

2 Ibiza

32 Lee Ju-Yong

17 Kim Seong-Min

5 Lee Myoung-Joo

26 Lee Min-Hyuk

72 Lee Chung-Yong

9 S. Mugosa

70 Leandro Ribeiro

Coach · Jong-Hwan Yoon

Substitutes

21 · Lee Tae-Hui

13 · Choi Seung-gu

20 · Park Kyung-sub

15 · Seo Jae-Min

11 · Gerso

99 · M. Ferrier

3 · Lee Sang-Gi

10 · Lee Dong-Ryul

77 · Park Seung-Ho

Pohang Steelers

5-3-2

21 Hwang In-Jae

2 Eo Jeong-Won

17 Shin Kwang-Hoon

4 Jeon Min-kwang

20 Park Chan-Yong

77 Wanderson

31 K. Nishiya

40 Ki Sung-Yueng

16 Kim Dong-Jin

11 J. da Rocha Junior

25 Jorge Teixeira

Coach · Tae-Ha Park

Substitutes

29 · Hong Sung-min

14 · Lee Chang-Woo

5 · Jin Si-woo

3 · Kim Ye-Sung

13 · Kang Min-Jun

8 · Kim Seung-Ho

10 · J. Tranziska

37 · Jung Han-Min

9 · J. An

Our number · incheon united winPublished 9 Oct 08:30

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Incheon United a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · incheon united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Incheon United win	38%	39%	−1
Draw	31%	30%	0
Pohang Steelers win	32%	31%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	65%	65%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	18%	21%	−3
Incheon United or draw	68%	69%	−1
Incheon United clean sheet	36%	–	–
Pohang Steelers clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 12.2 11.0 6.0 2.1 1 12.4 14.0 6.8 2.3 2 7.5 7.6 3.9 3 2.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Incheon United down, Pohang Steelers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,338 K League 1 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.0% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 1.65 goals a meeting; 2 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Incheon United at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pohang Steelers away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Incheon United, 1.03 for Pohang Steelers. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 08:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.65

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 17

~~Both scored~~7 of 17

~~Last meetings~~INC 0–1 POH · POH 1–1 INC · POH 1–0 INC · INC 1–3 POH

Form · last six in K League 1

INCHEON UNITED

DLWLDD1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

POHANG STEELERS

WDLDDW2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Seoul	30	+31	62
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	30	+5	47
3	Jeju United FC	30	+6	46
4	Jeonbuk Motors	30	+10	44
5	Gangwon FC	30	+8	43
6	Daejeon Citizen	30	+9	40
7	Pohang Steelers	30	−6	40
8	Incheon United	30	+3	39
9	FC Anyang	30	−9	38
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	30	−6	33
11	Bucheon FC 1995	30	−9	32
12	Gwangju FC	30	−42	15