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Incheon United v Jeju United FC

Incheon United

3–1Full time

Jeju United FC

K League 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Incheon Football Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

Incheon United 3–1 Jeju United FC INCHEON UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Incheon United win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.542

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.515

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Incheon United win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Incheon United v Jeju United FC
2′Little has changed for our model: Incheon United 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Incheon United
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Incheon United win 36%)
45′SECOND HALF Incheon United 0–0 Jeju United FC
46′Incheon United have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 31–44–25
46′8 shots for Incheon United, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 31–44–25
46′HALF-TIME Incheon United 0–0 Jeju United FC
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Incheon United win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Kim Ryun-sung · Jeju United FC
53′We said Incheon United at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–49–23
55′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Incheon United · On: Lee Dong-ryul · Off: Kim Seong-Min
59′We said Incheon United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–3
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Incheon United 1–0 Jeju United FC
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Incheon United win: 40% at kick-off, 79% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Incheon United win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 53%)
60′We said Incheon United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Incheon United win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
62′Lee Myung-Joo scores for Incheon United on 59′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
65′🟥 RED CARD · 65' Jeju United FC
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Lee Kun-hee · Jeju United FC
68′Jeju United FC are down to ten from 65′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 83–15–2
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Jeju United FC · On: Park Chang-Jun · Off: Kwon Gi-min
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Jeju United FC · On: Kim Shin-jin · Off: Eraldo Cinari
71′We said Incheon United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
71′We said Incheon United at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Incheon United 1–1 Jeju United FC
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Incheon United win: 40% at kick-off, 19% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Incheon United win 85%)
72′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Kim Dong-heon · Incheon United
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Incheon United win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
73′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–1 · 17–68–14
74′72′: Emerson Negueba on the scoresheet for Jeju United FC, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–70–14
77′We said Incheon United at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Jeju United FC · On: Kim Jae-woo · Off: Lee Kun-hee
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Incheon United · On: Morgan Ferrier · Off: Leandro Ribeiro
81′We said Incheon United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
81′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 91–8–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Incheon United 2–1 Jeju United FC
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Incheon United win: 40% at kick-off, 91% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Incheon United win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 79%)
85′Incheon United ahead on 81′ through Morgan Ferrier. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–5–0
86′We said Incheon United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Park Su-bin · Jeju United FC
88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Kim Shin-jin · Jeju United FC
88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Julien Celestine · Jeju United FC
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Jeju United FC · On: Rim Chang-Woo · Off: Lee Chang-Min
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Jeju United FC · On: Kang Dong-Hwi · Off: Park Su-bin
90′We said Incheon United at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Incheon United 3–1 Jeju United FC
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Incheon United win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
92′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
93′Lee Chung-Yong scores for Incheon United on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Incheon United · On: Lee Min-hyuk · Off: Lee Myung-Joo
98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Incheon United · On: Park Seung-ho · Off: Stefan Mugoša
98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Incheon United · On: Gerso Fernandes · Off: Lee Chung-Yong
FTFULL TIME Incheon United 3–1 Jeju United FC
FTIncheon United 3–1 Jeju United FC · Incheon United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Incheon United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Incheon United 40%, draw 30%, Jeju United FC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Incheon United v Jeju United FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Incheon United win40%

Draw30%

Jeju United FC win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueIncheon Football Stadium

Line-ups

Incheon United

Jeju United FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Incheon United

Jeju United FC

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · K League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Jeju United FC	32	+4	46
7	Incheon United	32	+6	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Incheon United

Formation not confirmed

15 Seo Jae-Min

2 Juan Fernández

70 Leandro Ribeiro

9 S. Mugoša

5 Lee Myung-Joo

72 Lee Chung-Yong

32 Lee Ju-Yong

17 Kim Seong-Min

4 Kim Geon-Hui

39 Kim Myung-Sun

1 Kim Dong-Heon

Coach · Jong-hwan Yoon

Substitutes

13 · Choi Seung-Gu

11 · Gerso

99 · M. Ferrier

10 · Lee Dong-Ryul

26 · Lee Min-Hyeok

3 · Lee Sang-Gi

21 · Lee Tae-Hui

77 · Park Seung-Ho

20 · Park Kyung-Sub

Jeju United FC

Formation not confirmed

22 E. Çinari

17 Yu In-Soo

2 Tobias Figueiredo

33 Park Su-Bin

8 Lee Chang-Min

6 Gi-min Kwon

40 Kim Ryun-Seong

1 Kim Dong-Jun

3 J. Célestine

10 Lee Kun-Hee

94 Emerson Negueba

Coach · Sérgio Costa

Substitutes

24 · Choi Byung-Wook

13 · Chung Woon

81 · Heo Ja-Ung

55 · Dong-hwi Kang

Our number · incheon united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Incheon United a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Incheon United v Jeju United FC~~1.22 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 43 v 46~~7 v 6

~~The market · Incheon United win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Incheon United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Incheon United win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Jeju United FC win	30%	29%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	43%	−4
Both teams to score	46%	49%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	66%	68%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	24%	−5
Incheon United or draw	70%	71%	−1
Incheon United clean sheet	36%	–	–
Jeju United FC clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.4 10.2 5.6 1 12.2 13.9 6.7 2.3 2 7.9 8.0 4.1 3 3.2 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Incheon United down, Jeju United FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,350 K League 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Incheon United at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Jeju United FC away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Incheon United, 1.02 for Jeju United FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JEJ 3–3 INC · INC 1–0 JEJ · INC 1–2 JEJ · JEJ 0–1 INC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

INCHEON UNITED

WLDDWD2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

JEJU UNITED FC

DWDWLL0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Seoul	32	+32	66
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	32	+5	50
3	Jeonbuk Motors	32	+10	47
4	Gangwon FC	32	+10	47
5	Daejeon Citizen	32	+11	46
6	Jeju United FC	32	+4	46
7	Incheon United	32	+6	43
8	FC Anyang	32	−8	42
9	Pohang Steelers	32	−9	41
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	32	−7	34
11	Bucheon FC 1995	32	−12	32
12	Gwangju FC	32	−42	18