Gwangju FC v Ulsan Hyundai FC prediction · K League 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 08:33

Gwangju FC 4–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC ULSAN HYUNDAI FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ulsan Hyundai FC win~~46%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.829

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.023

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ulsan Hyundai FC win at 46%.
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Gwangju FC 1–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Gwangju FC 0–0 Ulsan Hyundai FC
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Gwangju FC 0–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Gwangju FC 0–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Erick Farias
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Gwangju FC 1–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Yago Cariello Ribeiro
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Gwangju FC 1–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua (assist Ha Seung-un)
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Gwangju FC 2–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Gwangju FC 2–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC · John Iredale (assist Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua)
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Gwangju FC 2–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC · John Iredale
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Gwangju FC 2–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Kim Young-Gwon
45′SECOND HALF Gwangju FC 2–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ulsan Hyundai FC · On: Miłosz Trojak · Off: Choi Seok-hyeon
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Gwangju FC · On: Moon Min-Seo · Off: Ha Seung-un
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Gwangju FC 3–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Kim Young-Gwon
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Gwangju FC 3–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Shin Chang-moo
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Gwangju FC 3–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Shin Chang-moo
74′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 1–12–86
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Gwangju FC 3–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Yago Cariello Ribeiro
75′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–1 · 1–12–87
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 46% at kick-off, 87% now
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Gwangju FC 4–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Yago Cariello Ribeiro
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Gwangju FC · On: Ju Se-Jong · Off: Choi Kyoung-Rok
79′⚽ GOAL · 77' Gwangju FC 4–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua (assist Lee Min-Ki)
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Gwangju FC · On: Park Won-Jae · Off: Min Sang-gi Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Gwangju FC · On: Ahn Young-Kyu · Off: Kwon Sung-yun Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ulsan Hyundai FC · On: Lee Gyu-sung · Off: Darijan Bojanić
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ulsan Hyundai FC · On: Lee Jin-Hyun · Off: Erick Farias
83′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–1 · 0–7–93
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ulsan Hyundai FC · On: Yoon Jong-Gyu · Off: Jang Si-young
84′We said Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 0–1 · 0–6–94
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Ulsan Hyundai FC win: 46% at kick-off, 94% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Gwangju FC · On: Ri Yong-jik · Off: Teun van Grunsven
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Ulsan Hyundai FC · On: Lee Hui-gyun · Off: Lee Dong-gyeong
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Gwangju FC 4–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua
97′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Kim Dong-Hwa · Gwangju FC
97′⚽ GOAL · 97' Gwangju FC 4–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Yago Cariello Ribeiro
FTFULL TIME Gwangju FC 4–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC
FTGwangju FC 4–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC · Ulsan Hyundai FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gwangju FC win27%

Draw27%

Ulsan Hyundai FC win46%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 06:00

VenueGwangju Football Stadium

Line-ups

Gwangju FC

5-3-2

Ulsan Hyundai FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gwangju FC

Ulsan Hyundai FC

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	30	+5	47
12	Gwangju FC	30	−42	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gwangju FC

5-3-2

23 Kim Dong-Hwa

22 Kwon Sung-Yun

4 T. van Grunsven

39 Min Sang-Gi

14 Yu Je-Ho

3 Lee Min-Ki

40 Shin Chang-Moo

10 Choi Kyoung-Rok

9 Ha Seung-Un

50 A. Ba Loua

18 J. Iredale

Coach · Jeong-kyu Lee

Substitutes

37 · Ri Yong-jik

33 · Park Won-Jae

17 · Joao Pedro

6 · Ahn Young-Kyu

8 · Ju Se-Jong

70 · Kim Woo-jin

88 · Moon Min-seo

11 · H. Fridjonsson

1 · K. Kyeong-Min

Ulsan Hyundai FC

4-2-3-1

21 Jo Hyeon-Woo

96 Choi Seok-Hyun

15 Jung Seung-Hyun

19 Kim Young-Gwon

26 Cho Hyun-Taek

55 T. Oude Kotte

6 D. Bojanic

33 Jang Si-Young

10 Lee Dong-Gyeong

11 Erick Farias

99 Yago Cariello

Coach · Hyun-seok Kim

Substitutes

1 · Choi Ju-ho

66 · M. Trojak

2 · Yoon Jong-Gyu

17 · Kang Sang-Woo

28 · Lee Jae-Ik

24 · Lee Gyu-Seong

14 · Lee Jin-Hyun

72 · Baek In-Woo

8 · H. Lee

Our number · ulsan hyundai fc winPublished 11 Oct 05:01

46% The market57%

Us46%

~~Market~~57%

We make Ulsan Hyundai FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ulsan hyundai fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. The market has gone from 56% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gwangju FC win	27%	20%	+7
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Ulsan Hyundai FC win	46%	57%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	47%	60%	−13
Both teams to score	51%	58%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	81%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	26%	38%	−13
Gwangju FC or draw	54%	43%	+11
Gwangju FC clean sheet	23%	–	–
Ulsan Hyundai FC clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.4 11.0 8.6 4.3 1 7.7 12.8 9.1 4.6 2 4.4 6.5 4.9 2.4 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gwangju FC down, Ulsan Hyundai FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,343 K League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.4% of games this season, across 185 played.

Head to head

16 previous meetings, 2.06 goals a meeting; 4 of 16 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gwangju FC at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Gwangju FC, 1.49 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

16 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.06

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 16

~~Both scored~~5 of 16

~~Last meetings~~GWA 1–1 ULS · ULS 5–1 GWA · GWA 2–0 ULS · ULS 2–0 GWA

Form · last six in K League 1

GWANGJU FC

DLDLDD2–2 · 2–5 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC

LWDWWL1–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Seoul	31	+32	65
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	30	+5	47
3	Gangwon FC	31	+10	46
4	Jeju United FC	31	+5	46
5	Jeonbuk Motors	31	+9	44
6	Daejeon Citizen	31	+10	43
7	Incheon United	31	+6	42
8	FC Anyang	31	−8	41
9	Pohang Steelers	31	−9	40
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	31	−7	33
11	Bucheon FC 1995	31	−11	32
12	Gwangju FC	30	−42	15