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Gimcheon Sangmu FC v FC Anyang

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

0–1Full time

FC Anyang

K League 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Gimcheon Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 11:12

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 FC Anyang GIMCHEON SANGMU FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gimcheon Sangmu FC win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.760

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimcheon Sangmu FC win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Gimcheon Sangmu FC v FC Anyang
2′Much as we predicted: Gimcheon Sangmu FC was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' FC Anyang
36′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Breno Herculano Almeida · FC Anyang
37′We said Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–24–63
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 FC Anyang
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Gimcheon Sangmu FC win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' FC Anyang win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Gimcheon Sangmu FC win 13%)
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–63
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 FC Anyang · Branislav Knezevic
40′37′ and it is 0–1: Branislav Knezevic on the scoresheet for FC Anyang. 0–1 · 12–24–63
45′SECOND HALF Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 FC Anyang
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Kim Min-kyu · Gimcheon Sangmu FC
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' FC Anyang · On: Choi Geon-joo · Off: Chae Hyun-woo
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Gimcheon Sangmu FC · On: Jung Jae-min · Off: Kang Min-geu Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Anyang · On: Kim Un · Off: Breno Herculano Almeida Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Anyang · On: Lee Jin-Yong · Off: Kim Jung-Hyun
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Gimcheon Sangmu FC · On: Kim In-gyun · Off: Yoon Jae-Seok
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Gimcheon Sangmu FC · On: Park Jin-Seong · Off: Park Min-Seo
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FC Anyang · On: Kang Kim · Off: Ivan Jukić Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FC Anyang · On: Kim Ji-Hun · Off: Kim Young-Chan Corrected
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Lee Jin-Yong · FC Anyang
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Gimcheon Sangmu FC · On: Kang Ju-Hyeok · Off: Hong Yun-sang
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Gimcheon Sangmu FC · On: Min Kyeong-hyeon · Off: Hong Si-hoo
FTFULL TIME Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 FC Anyang
FTGimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 FC Anyang · Gimcheon Sangmu FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gimcheon Sangmu FC win44%

Draw27%

FC Anyang win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 08:30

Venue · Gimcheon Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

4-4-2

41 M. Park

42 Hong Si-Hoo

15 Lim Dug-Keun

5 Kim Min-Kyu

44 Park Min-Seo

54 Yoon Jae-Seok

55 T. Park

56 K. Lee

48 Hong Yun-Sang

47 Lee Sang-Heon

49 M. Kang

Coach · Seung-jin Joo

Substitutes

51 · Ahn Jun-Su

33 · Park Jin-Seong

2 · Min Kyeong-Hyeon

46 · M. Chung

66 · Oh Jae-Hyeok

21 · Kim In-Gyun

58 · Park Yong-Hui

50 · Kang Ju-Hyeok

57 · Jung Jae-Min

FC Anyang

4-4-2

23 Kim Jeong-Hoon

17 Kang Ji-hun

5 Kim Young-Chan

33 D. Bakker

22 Kim Dong-Jin

71 Chae Hyun-woo

8 Kim Jung-Hyun

18 B. Knezevic

10 I. Jukic

7 Matheus Oliveira

9 Breno Herculano

Coach · Byeong-hoon Ryu

Substitutes

42 · Kim Sung-Dong

3 · K. Ji-Hoon

25 · J. Kim

13 · K. Han

26 · Lee Jin-Yong

24 · Kim Bo-Kyung

19 · Kim Un

27 · Choi Geon-Joo

47 · Kim Gang

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

4-4-2

41 M. Park

42 Hong Si-Hoo

15 Lim Dug-Keun

5 Kim Min-Kyu

44 Park Min-Seo

54 Yoon Jae-Seok

55 T. Park

56 K. Lee

48 Hong Yun-Sang

47 Lee Sang-Heon

49 M. Kang

Coach · Seung-jin Joo

Substitutes

51 · Ahn Jun-Su

33 · Park Jin-Seong

2 · Min Kyeong-Hyeon

46 · M. Chung

66 · Oh Jae-Hyeok

21 · Kim In-Gyun

58 · Park Yong-Hui

50 · Kang Ju-Hyeok

57 · Jung Jae-Min

FC Anyang

4-4-2

23 Kim Jeong-Hoon

17 Kang Ji-hun

5 Kim Young-Chan

33 D. Bakker

22 Kim Dong-Jin

71 Chae Hyun-woo

8 Kim Jung-Hyun

18 B. Knezevic

10 I. Jukic

7 Matheus Oliveira

9 Breno Herculano

Coach · Byeong-hoon Ryu

Substitutes

42 · Kim Sung-Dong

3 · K. Ji-Hoon

25 · J. Kim

13 · K. Han

26 · Lee Jin-Yong

24 · Kim Bo-Kyung

19 · Kim Un

27 · Choi Geon-Joo

47 · Kim Gang

Our number · gimcheon sangmu fc winPublished 10 Oct 08:34

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gimcheon sangmu fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. The market has gone from 46% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimcheon Sangmu FC win	44%	44%	0
Draw	27%	27%	0
FC Anyang win	29%	30%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	32%	−5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw	71%	70%	0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC clean sheet	31%	–	–
FC Anyang clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.8 7.7 4.9 1 9.8 12.8 7.1 2.8 2 7.7 9.0 5.2 2.1 3 3.8 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimcheon Sangmu FC down, FC Anyang across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,341 K League 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.4% of games this season, across 183 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Anyang away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 1.17 for FC Anyang. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 08:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~FCA 2–2 GIM · GIM 1–1 FCA · FCA 4–1 GIM · GIM 1–0 FCA

Form · last six in K League 1

GIMCHEON SANGMU FC

DLDDDW0–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0

FC ANYANG

WDLLDW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Seoul	30	+31	62
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	30	+5	47
3	Gangwon FC	31	+10	46
4	Jeju United FC	30	+6	46
5	Jeonbuk Motors	31	+9	44
6	Daejeon Citizen	31	+10	43
7	Incheon United	31	+6	42
8	Pohang Steelers	31	−9	40
9	FC Anyang	30	−9	38
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	30	−6	33
11	Bucheon FC 1995	31	−11	32
12	Gwangju FC	30	−42	15