Gimcheon Sangmu FC v Daejeon Citizen prediction · K League 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–2 Daejeon Citizen GIMCHEON SANGMU FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gimcheon Sangmu FC win~~37%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.619

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.410

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimcheon Sangmu FC win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Gimcheon Sangmu FC v Daejeon Citizen
2′Much as we predicted: Gimcheon Sangmu FC was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Gimcheon Sangmu FC
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Gimcheon Sangmu FC win 34%)
45′SECOND HALF Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–0 Daejeon Citizen
46′HALF-TIME Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–0 Daejeon Citizen
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Gimcheon Sangmu FC · On: Jung Jae-min · Off: Kang Min-geu
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Daejeon Citizen · On: Diogo Oliveira · Off: Kim Jun-Beom
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Daejeon Citizen · On: Gustav Ludwigson · Off: Joo Min-Kyu
50′We said Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–22–71
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 Daejeon Citizen
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Gimcheon Sangmu FC win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Daejeon Citizen win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 42%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Gimcheon Sangmu FC win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
52′Daejeon Citizen ahead on 51′ through Diogo Oliveira. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–71
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Gimcheon Sangmu FC · On: Roh Kyung-Ho · Off: Lee Sang-heon
64′We said Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Daejeon Citizen · On: Kim Min-duk · Off: Lee Jung-Taek
73′We said Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–64–18
73′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 18–64–18
73′9 shots for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 18–64–18
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–1 Daejeon Citizen
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Gimcheon Sangmu FC win: 37% at kick-off, 18% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Daejeon Citizen win 81%)
75′Jung Jae-min scores for Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 73′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 17–67–16
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Daejeon Citizen · On: Lee Soon-min · Off: Diogo Oliveira
78′We said Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Gimcheon Sangmu FC · On: Yoon Jae-Seok · Off: Kim In-gyun
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Kim Moon-Hwan · Daejeon Citizen
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Daejeon Citizen · On: Lee Hyeon-sik · Off: Kang Yun-sung
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Gimcheon Sangmu FC win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Yoon Jae-Seok · Gimcheon Sangmu FC
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Gimcheon Sangmu FC · On: Kim Jin-Ho · Off: Min Kyeong-hyeon
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Gimcheon Sangmu FC · On: Kang Ju-Hyeok · Off: Hong Yun-sang
95′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–1–99
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–2 Daejeon Citizen
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Daejeon Citizen win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
FTFULL TIME Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–2 Daejeon Citizen
FTGimcheon Sangmu FC 1–2 Daejeon Citizen · Gimcheon Sangmu FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37%, draw 27%, Daejeon Citizen 36%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Gimcheon Sangmu FC v Daejeon CitizenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gimcheon Sangmu FC win37%

Draw27%

Daejeon Citizen win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueGimcheon Stadium

Line-ups

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

4-4-2

Daejeon Citizen

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Daejeon Citizen

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · K League 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Daejeon Citizen	32	+11	46
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	32	−7	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

4-4-2

51 Ahn Joon-Soo

33 Park Jin-Seong

2 Min Kyeong-hyeon

56 Lee Kang-Hyun

45 Byeon Jun-Soo

55 Park Tae-Jun

5 Kim Min-Kyu

48 Hong Yun-Sang

49 M. Kang

47 Lee Sang-Heon

21 Kim In-Gyun

Coach · Seung-jin Joo

Substitutes

46 · Chung Ma-Ho

57 · Jeong Jae-Min

50 · Kang Ju-Hyeok

62 · Kim Jin-Ho

65 · Lee Sang-Hyeok

44 · Park Min-Seo

41 · Park Man-Ho

53 · Roh Kyung-Ho

54 · Yoon Jae-Seok

Daejeon Citizen

4-4-2

1 Lee Chang-Geun

16 Lee Myung-Jae

33 Kim Moon-Hwan

6 Kang Yun-Sung

98 A. Krivotsyuk

30 Kim Bong-Soo

26 Lee Jung-Taek

19 Seo Jin-Su

10 Joo Min-Kyu

11 Um Won-Sang

14 Kim Jun-Bum

Coach · Hwang Sun-Hong

Substitutes

27 · Jeong Jae-Hee

13 · Kim Jin-Ya

3 · Kim Min-Duk

31 · Kim Min-Soo

44 · Lee Soon-Min

20 · Lee Hyun-Sik

17 · G. Ludwigson

41 · Park Byung-chan

9 · Diogo de Oliveira

Our number · gimcheon sangmu fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

37% The market26%

Us37%

~~Market~~26%

We make Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gimcheon Sangmu FC v Daejeon Citizen~~1.36 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 34 v 46~~10 v 5

~~The market · Gimcheon Sangmu FC win~~26% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gimcheon Sangmu FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimcheon Sangmu FC win	37%	26%	+11
Draw	27%	27%	0
Daejeon Citizen win	36%	48%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw	64%	52%	+12
Gimcheon Sangmu FC clean sheet	26%	–	–
Daejeon Citizen clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.4 8.3 6.0 2.7 1 8.5 12.8 8.2 3.7 2 6.2 8.3 5.5 2.5 3 2.8 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimcheon Sangmu FC down, Daejeon Citizen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,350 K League 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Daejeon Citizen away: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 1.34 for Daejeon Citizen. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GIM 3–2 DAE · DAE 1–1 GIM · GIM 0–3 DAE · DAE 2–1 GIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

GIMCHEON SANGMU FC

DDDWLD2–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

DAEJEON CITIZEN

WWDDWW5–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Seoul	32	+32	66
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	32	+5	50
3	Jeonbuk Motors	32	+10	47
4	Gangwon FC	32	+10	47
5	Daejeon Citizen	32	+11	46
6	Jeju United FC	32	+4	46
7	Incheon United	32	+6	43
8	FC Anyang	32	−8	42
9	Pohang Steelers	32	−9	41
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	32	−7	34
11	Bucheon FC 1995	32	−12	32
12	Gwangju FC	32	−42	18