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Gangwon FC v Bucheon FC 1995

Gangwon FC

2–0Full time

Bucheon FC 1995

K League 1 · FRI 9 OCT · Gangneung Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 11:02

Gangwon FC 2–0 Bucheon FC 1995 GANGWON FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gangwon FC win~~42%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.513

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.312

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gangwon FC win42%

Draw29%

Bucheon FC 1995 win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 08:30

Venue · Gangneung Stadium

Referee · Shin Yong-jun

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Gangwon FC

4-2-3-1

1 Park Cheong-Hyo

88 Hwang Mun-Ki

47 Shin Min-Ha

23 M. Tuci

5 A. Mammar Chaouche

6 Kim Dong-Hyun

4 Seo Min-Woo

10 Mo Jae-Hyeon

96 Choe Byeong-Chan

7 Kim Dae-Won

9 Kim Gun-Hee

Coach · Kyung-Ho Chung

Substitutes

41 · Y. Kim

33 · Hong Chul

97 · Lee You-Hyeon

71 · Kang Seong-yun

11 · Goh Young-Jun

8 · Lee Seung-Won

70 · J. Sekidika

77 · A. Hleihel

19 · Park Sang-Hyeok

Bucheon FC 1995

5-4-1

1 H. Kim

7 Thiaguinho Santos

6 Jeong Ho-Jin

3 Patrick William

20 Hong Sung-Wook

26 An Tae-Hyun

10 Rodrigo Bassani

8 Yoon Bit-Garam

16 Kim Sang-Jun

11 Galego

99 Gustavo Nescau

Coach · Ou-Ghu Kwon

Substitutes

31 · Lee Sang-hyeon

29 · Baek Dong-Gyu

93 · J. Lee

14 · Kim Jong-Woo

71 · Kim Seung-Bin

4 · S. Ye-Geon

9 · Park Jeong-In

83 · Jo Seong-Jun

13 · Kim Min-Jun

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gangwon FC

4-2-3-1

1 Park Cheong-Hyo

88 Hwang Mun-Ki

47 Shin Min-Ha

23 M. Tuci

5 A. Mammar Chaouche

6 Kim Dong-Hyun

4 Seo Min-Woo

10 Mo Jae-Hyeon

96 Choe Byeong-Chan

7 Kim Dae-Won

9 Kim Gun-Hee

Coach · Kyung-Ho Chung

Substitutes

41 · Y. Kim

33 · Hong Chul

97 · Lee You-Hyeon

71 · Kang Seong-yun

11 · Goh Young-Jun

8 · Lee Seung-Won

70 · J. Sekidika

77 · A. Hleihel

19 · Park Sang-Hyeok

Bucheon FC 1995

5-4-1

1 H. Kim

7 Thiaguinho Santos

6 Jeong Ho-Jin

3 Patrick William

20 Hong Sung-Wook

26 An Tae-Hyun

10 Rodrigo Bassani

8 Yoon Bit-Garam

16 Kim Sang-Jun

11 Galego

99 Gustavo Nescau

Coach · Ou-Ghu Kwon

Substitutes

31 · Lee Sang-hyeon

29 · Baek Dong-Gyu

93 · J. Lee

14 · Kim Jong-Woo

71 · Kim Seung-Bin

4 · S. Ye-Geon

9 · Park Jeong-In

83 · Jo Seong-Jun

13 · Kim Min-Jun

Our number · gangwon fc winPublished 9 Oct 08:30

42% The market55%

Us42%

~~Market~~55%

We make Gangwon FC a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gangwon fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gangwon FC win	42%	55%	−13
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Bucheon FC 1995 win	29%	19%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	41%	45%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	46%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	69%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	25%	−4
Gangwon FC or draw	71%	81%	−10
Gangwon FC clean sheet	35%	–	–
Bucheon FC 1995 clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.5 9.4 5.3 1 11.9 13.6 6.7 2.4 2 8.1 8.4 4.3 3 3.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gangwon FC down, Bucheon FC 1995 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,338 K League 1 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.0% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gangwon FC at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bucheon FC 1995 away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Gangwon FC, 1.04 for Bucheon FC 1995. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 08:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GAN 0–3 BUC · BUC 0–0 GAN

Form · last six in K League 1

GANGWON FC

DWDDLD0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

BUCHEON FC 1995

LDLLDL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Seoul	30	+31	62
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	30	+5	47
3	Jeju United FC	30	+6	46
4	Jeonbuk Motors	30	+10	44
5	Gangwon FC	30	+8	43
6	Daejeon Citizen	30	+9	40
7	Pohang Steelers	30	−6	40
8	Incheon United	30	+3	39
9	FC Anyang	30	−9	38
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	30	−6	33
11	Bucheon FC 1995	30	−9	32
12	Gwangju FC	30	−42	15