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FC Seoul v Jeju United FC

FC Seoul

2–1Full time

Jeju United FC

K League 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Seoul World Cup Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

FC Seoul 2–1 Jeju United FC FC SEOUL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Seoul win~~48%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.405

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.244

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Seoul win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Seoul 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–26
1′KICK-OFF FC Seoul v Jeju United FC
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' FC Seoul
39′SUBSTITUTION · 39' FC Seoul · On: Son Jeong-Beom · Off: Lee Seung-mo Corrected
45′SECOND HALF FC Seoul 0–0 Jeju United FC
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' FC Seoul 1–0 Jeju United FC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jeju United FC · On: Lee Kun-hee · Off: Italo Moreira Barcelos Corrected
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' FC Seoul 1–0 Jeju United FC · Moon Seon-min
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Jeju United FC · On: Choi Byung-Wook · Off: Jeong Woon
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Seoul 1–1 Jeju United FC · Moon Seon-min
71′⚽ GOAL · 72' FC Seoul 1–1 Jeju United FC · Lee Kun-hee
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' FC Seoul 2–1 Jeju United FC · Lee Kun-hee
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' FC Seoul 2–1 Jeju United FC · Patryk Klimala
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Seoul · On: Jeong Hyeon-Woo · Off: Anderson Oliveira
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Son Jeong-Beom · FC Seoul
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Jeju United FC · On: Lee Chang-Min · Off: Jang Min-gyu Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Seoul · On: Hwang Do-yoon · Off: Moon Seon-min Corrected
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Tobias Figueiredo · Jeju United FC
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Jeju United FC · On: Park Chang-Jun · Off: Julien Celestine Corrected
98′⚽ GOAL · 98' FC Seoul 2–2 Jeju United FC · Patryk Klimala
FTFULL TIME FC Seoul 2–1 Jeju United FC
FTFC Seoul 2–1 Jeju United FC · FC Seoul win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Seoul win48%

Draw27%

Jeju United FC win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · Seoul World Cup Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Seoul

4-4-2

25 Gu Sung-Yun

16 Choi Jun

37 J. Ros

5 Y. Al Arab

22 Kim Jin-Su

7 Jeong Seung-Won

8 Lee Seung-Mo

6 H. Babec

10 Anderson Oliveira

9 P. Klimala

27 Moon Seon-Min

Coach · Gi-Dong Kim

Substitutes

26 · Baek Jong-beom

4 · Lee Sang-Min

20 · Lee Han-Do

66 · Park Soo-Il

42 · J. Son

41 · Hwang Do-Yun

19 · Cheon Seong-Hoon

14 · Jeong Hyeon-Woo

99 · S. Gbato

Jeju United FC

4-2-3-1

1 Kim Dong-Jun

17 Yu In-Soo

2 T. Figueiredo

3 J. Celestine

13 Jeong Woon

20 M. Jang

5 Italo

94 Emerson Negueba

33 Park Su-bin

40 Kim Ryun-sung

18 Kim Shin-Jin

Coach · Sergio Costa

Substitutes

81 · J. Heo

41 · Kim Jae-Woo

6 · Kwon Gi-min

8 · Lee Chang-Min

22 · E. Cinari

7 · Park Chang-Jun

10 · G. Lee

24 · Choi Byung-wook

47 · Park Min-jae

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Seoul

4-4-2

25 Gu Sung-Yun

16 Choi Jun

37 J. Ros

5 Y. Al Arab

22 Kim Jin-Su

7 Jeong Seung-Won

8 Lee Seung-Mo

6 H. Babec

10 Anderson Oliveira

9 P. Klimala

27 Moon Seon-Min

Coach · Gi-Dong Kim

Substitutes

26 · Baek Jong-beom

4 · Lee Sang-Min

20 · Lee Han-Do

66 · Park Soo-Il

42 · J. Son

41 · Hwang Do-Yun

19 · Cheon Seong-Hoon

14 · Jeong Hyeon-Woo

99 · S. Gbato

Jeju United FC

4-2-3-1

1 Kim Dong-Jun

17 Yu In-Soo

2 T. Figueiredo

3 J. Celestine

13 Jeong Woon

20 M. Jang

5 Italo

94 Emerson Negueba

33 Park Su-bin

40 Kim Ryun-sung

18 Kim Shin-Jin

Coach · Sergio Costa

Substitutes

81 · J. Heo

41 · Kim Jae-Woo

6 · Kwon Gi-min

8 · Lee Chang-Min

22 · E. Cinari

7 · Park Chang-Jun

10 · G. Lee

24 · Choi Byung-wook

47 · Park Min-jae

Our number · fc seoul winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

48% The market60%

Us48%

~~Market~~60%

We make FC Seoul a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc seoul win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Seoul win	48%	60%	−12
Draw	27%	22%	+5
Jeju United FC win	25%	18%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	47%	55%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
FC Seoul or draw	75%	82%	−7
FC Seoul clean sheet	36%	–	–
Jeju United FC clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.5 7.4 4.1 1 11.3 12.8 6.2 2.1 2 9.0 9.2 4.7 3 4.6 4.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Seoul down, Jeju United FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,341 K League 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

K League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.4% of games this season, across 183 played.

Head to head

18 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 10 of 18 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Seoul at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Jeju United FC away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for FC Seoul, 1.03 for Jeju United FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

18 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 18

~~Both scored~~11 of 18

~~Last meetings~~JEJ 2–1 FCS · JEJ 1–2 FCS · JEJ 3–2 FCS · FCS 1–3 JEJ

Form · last six in K League 1

FC SEOUL

WWWLWL1–0 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

JEJU UNITED FC

LWDWDW1–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Seoul	30	+31	62
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	30	+5	47
3	Gangwon FC	31	+10	46
4	Jeju United FC	30	+6	46
5	Jeonbuk Motors	31	+9	44
6	Daejeon Citizen	31	+10	43
7	Incheon United	31	+6	42
8	Pohang Steelers	31	−9	40
9	FC Anyang	30	−9	38
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	30	−6	33
11	Bucheon FC 1995	31	−11	32
12	Gwangju FC	30	−42	15