FC Anyang v Jeonbuk Motors prediction · K League 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

FC Anyang 1–1 Jeonbuk Motors JEONBUK MOTORS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Jeonbuk Motors win~~43%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.794

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.844

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jeonbuk Motors win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF FC Anyang v Jeonbuk Motors
2′Much as we predicted: Jeonbuk Motors was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 30–28–42
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Jeonbuk Motors win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME FC Anyang 1–0 Jeonbuk Motors
45′SECOND HALF FC Anyang 1–0 Jeonbuk Motors
46′We said Jeonbuk Motors at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 66–24–10
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 66–24–10
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' FC Anyang 1–0 Jeonbuk Motors
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Jeonbuk Motors win: 43% at kick-off, 10% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' FC Anyang win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 41%)
47′A goal for FC Anyang on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–24–10
47′7 shots for Jeonbuk Motors, 1 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 67–24–10
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jeonbuk Motors · On: Seung-Woo Lee · Off: Lee Dong-Jun
48′We said Jeonbuk Motors at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
52′Jeonbuk Motors have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–8
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Lee Sang-Myung · Jeonbuk Motors
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Ryu Byung-Hoon · FC Anyang
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Jeonbuk Motors · On: Hwang Seung-jun · Off: Lee Sang-Myung
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Jeonbuk Motors · On: Kim Jin-Gyu · Off: Lee Yeong-jae
66′We said Jeonbuk Motors at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Jeonbuk Motors win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Anyang · On: Chae Hyun-woo · Off: Choi Geon-joo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Anyang · On: Danny Bakker · Off: Kim Jung-Hyun
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Jeonbuk Motors · On: Andrea Compagno · Off: João Gamboa
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Anyang · On: Blaise tsague · Off: Kim Un
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Jeonbuk Motors · On: Vinicius Rodrigues Adelino Dos Santos · Off: Italo Vargas
86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Kim Jin-Gyu · Jeonbuk Motors
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Anyang · On: Jae-hyeon Kim · Off: Ivan Jukić
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Anyang · On: Kim Ji-Hun · Off: Matheus Oliveira
90′90′: Andrea Compagno on the scoresheet for Jeonbuk Motors. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Kim Ji-Hun · FC Anyang
91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Tiago Orobó · Jeonbuk Motors
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' FC Anyang 1–1 Jeonbuk Motors
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was FC Anyang win 97%)
96′90′: Tiago Orobó on the scoresheet for Jeonbuk Motors, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 1–97–2
98′13 shots for Jeonbuk Motors, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 1–97–2
FTFULL TIME FC Anyang 1–1 Jeonbuk Motors
FTFC Anyang 1–1 Jeonbuk Motors · Jeonbuk Motors win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jeonbuk Motors are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Anyang 30%, draw 28%, Jeonbuk Motors 43%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on FC Anyang v Jeonbuk MotorsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Anyang win30%

Draw28%

Jeonbuk Motors win43%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueAnyang Stadium

Line-ups

FC Anyang

4-3-3

Jeonbuk Motors

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Anyang

Jeonbuk Motors

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · K League 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Jeonbuk Motors	32	+10	47
8	FC Anyang	32	−8	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Anyang

4-3-3

23 Kim Jeong-Hoon

17 Kang Ji-Hoon

5 Kim Young-Chan

21 Kwon Kyung-Won

22 Kim Dong-Jin

7 Matheus Oliveira

8 Kim Jung-Hyun

18 B. Knežević

27 Choi Geon-Joo

19 Woon Kim

10 I. Jukić

Coach · Ryu Byeong-Hoon

Substitutes

33 · D. Bakker

71 · Chae Hyun-Woo

25 · Jae-hyeon Kim

24 · Kim Bo-Kyung

47 · Gang Kim

3 · J. h. Kim

31 · Kim Da-Sol

26 · Lee Jin-Yong

28 · B. Tsague

Jeonbuk Motors

4-3-3

31 Song Bum-Keun

24 Lee Sang-Myung

5 Park Ji-Soo

2 Kim Young-Bin

66 Choi Woo-Jin

28 Lee Yeong-Jae

16 João Gamboa

13 Kang Sang-Yoon

7 Lee Dong-Jun

9 Tiago Orobó

95 Italo

Coach · Chung Jung-Yong

Substitutes

96 · A. Compagno

27 · Hwang Seung-Jun

11 · Kim Seung-Sub

97 · Kim Jin-Gyu

15 · Kim Ha-Jun

1 · Lee Ju-Hyun

10 · Lee Seung-Woo

30 · Dodozinho

3 · Yeon Je-Un

Our number · jeonbuk motors winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market49%

Us43%

~~Market~~49%

We make Jeonbuk Motors a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Anyang v Jeonbuk Motors~~1.15 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 42 v 47~~8 v 3

~~The market · Jeonbuk Motors win~~49% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jeonbuk Motors win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Anyang win	30%	24%	+6
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Jeonbuk Motors win	43%	49%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−5
FC Anyang or draw	57%	51%	+6
FC Anyang clean sheet	24%	–	–
Jeonbuk Motors clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.5 10.2 7.7 3.7 1 8.2 13.1 8.8 4.2 2 5.1 7.1 5.0 2.4 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Anyang down, Jeonbuk Motors across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,350 K League 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Anyang at home: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for FC Anyang, 1.42 for Jeonbuk Motors. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~FCA 1–1 JEO · JEO 2–1 FCA · JEO 2–1 FCA · JEO 2–0 FCA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

FC ANYANG

LLDWWD0–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

JEONBUK MOTORS

WDLDLW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Seoul	32	+32	66
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	32	+5	50
3	Jeonbuk Motors	32	+10	47
4	Gangwon FC	32	+10	47
5	Daejeon Citizen	32	+11	46
6	Jeju United FC	32	+4	46
7	Incheon United	32	+6	43
8	FC Anyang	32	−8	42
9	Pohang Steelers	32	−9	41
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	32	−7	34
11	Bucheon FC 1995	32	−12	32
12	Gwangju FC	32	−42	18