Bucheon FC 1995 v Gwangju FC prediction · K League 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 08:31

Bucheon FC 1995 0–3 Gwangju FC BUCHEON FC 1995 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bucheon FC 1995 win~~44%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.783

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.745

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bucheon FC 1995 win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bucheon FC 1995 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Bucheon FC 1995 v Gwangju FC
41′PENALTY MISSED · 41' Bucheon FC 1995
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Bucheon FC 1995 win 37%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Bucheon FC 1995 win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′SECOND HALF Bucheon FC 1995 0–1 Gwangju FC
46′We said Bucheon FC 1995 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–24–66
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Bucheon FC 1995 0–1 Gwangju FC
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Bucheon FC 1995 win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Gwangju FC win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 41%)
47′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–24–66
47′45′: John Iredale on the scoresheet for Gwangju FC, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–24–66
48′We said Bucheon FC 1995 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
48′HALF-TIME Bucheon FC 1995 0–1 Gwangju FC
60′We said Bucheon FC 1995 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bucheon FC 1995 · On: Rodrigo Bassani · Off: Kim Min-Jun
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Bucheon FC 1995 0–2 Gwangju FC
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Bucheon FC 1995 win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Bucheon FC 1995 · On: Gustavo · Off: Park Jeong-in
62′Gwangju FC ahead on 60′ through Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–95
64′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–99
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Bucheon FC 1995 0–3 Gwangju FC
66′John Iredale scores for Gwangju FC on 65′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–99
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Bucheon FC 1995 · On: Jeong Ho-Jin · Off: Patrick William Sá de Oliveira
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Bucheon FC 1995 · On: Yoon Bit-Garam · Off: Ye-Geon Sung
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Gwangju FC · On: Moon Min-Seo · Off: Ha Seung-un
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Gwangju FC · On: Ahn Young-Kyu · Off: Min Sang-gi
82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' João Pedro Reginaldo · Gwangju FC
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Gwangju FC · On: Bae Jin-Woo · Off: João Pedro Reginaldo
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Kim Jong-Suk · Gwangju FC
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Jefferson Fernando Isidio · Bucheon FC 1995
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Bucheon FC 1995 · On: Kim Dong-hyun · Off: Jefferson Fernando Isidio
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Gwangju FC · On: Ju Se-Jong · Off: Shin Chang-moo
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Gwangju FC · On: Kim Yun-ho · Off: Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua
FTFULL TIME Bucheon FC 1995 0–3 Gwangju FC
FTBucheon FC 1995 0–3 Gwangju FC · Bucheon FC 1995 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bucheon FC 1995 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bucheon FC 1995 44%, draw 28%, Gwangju FC 28%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Bucheon FC 1995 v Gwangju FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bucheon FC 1995 win44%

Draw28%

Gwangju FC win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueBucheon Stadium

Line-ups

Bucheon FC 1995

Gwangju FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bucheon FC 1995

Gwangju FC

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · K League 1

Last match: 18 Oct · K League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Bucheon FC 1995	32	−12	32
12	Gwangju FC	32	−42	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bucheon FC 1995

Formation not confirmed

1 Kim Hyung-Geun

3 Patrick William

9 Park Jeong-In

13 Kim Min-Jun

14 Kim Jong-Woo

83 Jo Seong-Joon

20 Hong Sung-Wook

11 Jefferson Galego

29 Baek Dong-Gyu

4 S. Ye-Geon

26 An Tae-Hyun

Coach · Lee Young-Min

Substitutes

99 · Gustavo Nescau

6 · Jeong Ho-Jin

24 · Kim Dong-Hyun

93 · J. Lee

31 · Lee Sang-Hyeon

10 · Rodrigo Bassani

23 · K. Takahashi

25 · Bong-Hun Yeo

8 · Yoon Bit-Garam

Gwangju FC

Formation not confirmed

4 T. van Grunsven

50 A. Ba Loua

10 Choi Kyoung-Rok

9 Ha Seung-Un

18 J. Iredale

17 João Pedro

21 Kim Jong-Suk

22 Kwon Sung-Yun

39 Min Sang-Gi

40 Shin Chang-Moo

23 Kim Dong-Hwa

Coach · Jeong-kyu Lee

Substitutes

37 · Lee Yong-Jick

33 · Park Won-Jae

88 · Moon Min-seo

25 · Kim Yun-Ho

70 · Kim Woo-jin

1 · Kim Kyeong-Min

8 · Ju Se-Jong

66 · Bae Jin-Woo

6 · Ahn Young-Kyu

Our number · bucheon fc 1995 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market42%

Us44%

~~Market~~42%

We make Bucheon FC 1995 a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bucheon FC 1995 v Gwangju FC~~1.41 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 32 v 18~~11 v 12

~~The market · Bucheon FC 1995 win~~42% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bucheon FC 1995 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bucheon FC 1995 win	44%	42%	+2
Draw	28%	28%	0
Gwangju FC win	28%	30%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	51%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Bucheon FC 1995 or draw	72%	70%	+2
Bucheon FC 1995 clean sheet	34%	–	–
Gwangju FC clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.1 8.3 4.9 1 11.0 13.2 6.8 2.5 2 8.2 8.8 4.8 3 3.9 4.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bucheon FC 1995 down, Gwangju FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,350 K League 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: K League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bucheon FC 1995 at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Gwangju FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Bucheon FC 1995, 1.08 for Gwangju FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUC 0–0 GWA · GWA 0–1 BUC · BUC 1–2 GWA · GWA 2–0 BUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in K League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

BUCHEON FC 1995

LLDLLL0–5 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

GWANGJU FC

DLDDWL2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Seoul	32	+32	66
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	32	+5	50
3	Jeonbuk Motors	32	+10	47
4	Gangwon FC	32	+10	47
5	Daejeon Citizen	32	+11	46
6	Jeju United FC	32	+4	46
7	Incheon United	32	+6	43
8	FC Anyang	32	−8	42
9	Pohang Steelers	32	−9	41
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	32	−7	34
11	Bucheon FC 1995	32	−12	32
12	Gwangju FC	32	−42	18