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Siwelele v Polokwane City

Siwelele
1–0Full time
Polokwane City

Premier Soccer League · SUN 18 OCT · Free State Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17
Siwelele 1–0 Polokwane City DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw36%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.630
The market’s Brier score0.566

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: the draw 36% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 35–37–28
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Siwelele v Polokwane City
  4. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Siwelele
  5. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 46% now
  6. 37′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 48%. 0–0 · 29–48–24
  7. 41′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 50%. 0–0 · 28–50–23
  8. 45′Siwelele have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 26–52–22
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Siwelele 0–0 Polokwane City
  10. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Tlou Nkwe · Polokwane City
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Siwelele 0–0 Polokwane City
  12. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Polokwane City · On: G. Philander · Off: Keorapetse Sebone
  13. 50′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 25–55–21
  14. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 56% now
  15. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Polokwane City · On: Lucky Mahlatse Malatsi · Off: Juan Adrian Mutudza
  16. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Polokwane City · On: Monty Batlhabane · Off: Tshepang Matube
  17. 57′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 60%. 0–0 · 22–60–18
  18. 63′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
  19. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Thato Reabetswe Letshedi · Siwelele
  20. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
  21. 68′8 shots for Siwelele, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 17–69–14
  22. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Siwelele · On: Matthew Marou · Off: Christian Saile Basomboli
  23. 70′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–0 · 15–71–13
  24. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Siwelele · On: Shadrack·Kobedi · Off: relebogile mokhuoane
  25. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Siwelele · On: R. Selaelo · Off: Thato Reabetswe Letshedi
  26. 73′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–0 · 14–75–12
  27. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
  28. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Bonginkosi dlamini · Polokwane City
  29. 77′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–0 · 11–80–9
  30. 81′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–0 · 8–85–7
  31. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 87% now
  32. 84′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–0 · 6–90–5
  33. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Siwelele · On: Michel N'Guessan · Off: Sphesihle Jeza
  34. 90′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 98–2–0
  35. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Siwelele 1–0 Polokwane City
  36. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 2% now
  37. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Siwelele win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  38. 91′90′: Michel N'Guessan on the scoresheet for Siwelele, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
  39. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Siwelele · On: N. Ngcobo · Off: R. Selaelo
  40. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' N. Ngcobo · Siwelele
  41. FTFULL TIME Siwelele 1–0 Polokwane City
  42. FTSiwelele 1–0 Polokwane City · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Siwelele 35%, draw 36%, Polokwane City 28%. Over 2.5 goals 24%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Siwelele v Polokwane CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Siwelele win35%
Draw36%
Polokwane City win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueFree State Stadium

Line-ups

Siwelele

4-4-2

Polokwane City

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Siwelele

Polokwane City

35Days since last match29

Last match: 13 Sept · Premier Soccer League (South Africa)

Last match: 19 Sept · Premier Soccer League (South Africa)

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Polokwane City7−27
14Siwelele7−73

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Siwelele

4-4-2

1 J. February

2 Y. Mfolozi

4 T. Sesane

33 S. Ndebele

29 A. Baliti

17 S. Jeza

8 R. Mokhuoane

36 T. R. Letshedi

16 T. Potsane

12 M. Mazibuko

11 C. Saile

Coach · Lehlohonolo Seema

Substitutes

50 · W. Mthombeni

5 · K. Khonyane

80 · N. Ngcobo

26 · S. Kobedi

6 · S. Rasebotja

47 · M. Marou

22 · K. Lupalule

70 · J. Clifford

28 · M. N'Guessan

Polokwane City

4-4-2

50 O. Masuluke

42 S. Manthosi

22 E. Ramaja

34 L. Nkaki

3 T. Nkwe

25 K. Sebone

21 M. Kambala

46 T. Matube

17 B. Dlamini

44 T. Molokwane

36 J. Mutudza

Coach · Willy Moloto

Substitutes

40 · L. Mathebula

27 · M. Modise

4 · B. Nikani

6 · S. Kelepu

48 · A. Mashele

47 · M. M. Batlhabane

18 · G. Philander

20 · R. Daniels

28 · L. Mahlatsi

Our number · drawFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
36% The market32%
Us36%
Market32%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Siwelele v Polokwane City0.90 – 0.77
Form · last six in Premier Soccer League this season · since 11 AugW0 D2 L4 · W0 D4 L2
Table places · points 3 v 714 v 10
The market · Draw32% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 12 OCT 04:0518 OCT 13:50
Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Siwelele win35%39%−4
Draw36%32%+4
Polokwane City win28%29%−1
Over 2.5 goals24%35%−11
Both teams to score33%43%−10
Over 1.5 goals51%61%−10
Over 3.5 goals9%17%−8
Siwelele or draw72%71%+1
Siwelele clean sheet46%––
Polokwane City clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.0%
0123450 20.0 13.4 5.6 1 15.7 13.9 5.0 2 7.6 5.8 2.3 3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Siwelele down, Polokwane City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting0.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsPOL 0–0 SIW · SIW 0–1 POL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Soccer League this season · since 11 Aug

SIWELELE

LLDLLD0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–1

POLOKWANE CITY

DLDDDL3–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Mamelodi Sundowns9+1523
2Orlando Pirates8+1822
3Amazulu8+419
4Milford FC9+315
5Kaizer Chiefs8+514
6Sekhukhune United8+114
7Stellenbosch8+110
8Golden Arrows8−18
9Chippa United8−38
10Polokwane City7−27
11Durban City8−27
12Kruger United8−87
13TS Galaxy8−56
14Siwelele7−73
15Richards Bay8−103
16Marumo Gallants8−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.